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  • Question about the Elliott Waves

    Got a question and I'm not sure who to ask. Came across this forum and looks like as good a place as any...

    I've been trading with the Advanced GET studies for some time. Specifically the Elliott Waves and what I call the good ol' fashion Type I and Type II trades. I don't really focus on the Oscillator as much as price crossing the MA (Len 6, Offset 4).

    The Elliott has gotten me into some great trades. My favorite was a few months ago, a short on SUNW just before it announced earnings and dropped like a rock. Recently some other miscellaneous trades with AMZN, IBM, AOL, CSCO, YHOO.

    Although I don't trade the E-Minis (yet), I do watch them to compare the minis against Nasdaq stocks, to see what the trend is, and the Elliott tends to be on the money with the minis.

    The Elliott Waves and MA's definitely put me in the right place at the right time. Granted, there are those occassional trades where the E-Waves are wrong (typically a W5) and I get stopped out. This is typically when a W5 forms and then the trend continues to a higher high or lower low. However, the risk is minimal and when the W5 does go in the right direction, it's worth the money...

    Now that I've babbled, on to the question: I'm looking for ways to improve trading with the Elliott Waves beyond using the default strategy.

    Just wondering if anyone has ideas they want to share as to how I might get earlier entries and reduce the risk even more than using the 6MA, Offset by 4.

    Thanks. IIG2M

  • #2
    Hi IIG2M (shouldn't that be IAG2M?),

    Now that I've babbled, on to the question: I'm looking for ways to improve trading with the Elliott Waves beyond using the default strategy.
    I have used Elliott in my trading for years, but am relatively new to AGET. Also, I don't use Elliott alone as a basis for trades, but it is an important part of my overall trading strategy. I do have some comments however, that I hope may give you insight. I'm sure there are other users out there that have used AGET who might have much more focused comments.

    In my comments below I am using the Elliott terms for waves, not the GET labels (get always labels the move after it is over, Hence when I say a wave 3, it really means the wave that is forming after the 2 label.

    1) I have found that GANN's square of price and time can give some much needed clarification on what is really happening with wave counts, and in the case of AGET can be used to help trigger both more agressive entries and exits, as well as help determine when a count may be bogus.

    2) You mentioned that you don't use the AGET osc. I think you should look at it again. While a fairly simply built indicator, it can give some good vision into what is happening with the wave formation. I have noticed that if the histogram hasn't broken the strength band in the direction of the move pretty early in the wave 3 move, then you are either dealing with a very weak wave formation, or more likely you will see the wave counts renumbered by GET. Divergances entering into a new wave formation is also a very good indication of the reliability of the wave count, and a good indicator of how well formed the wave will be. Again, these are my observations, and I don't mean to imply that they are 100% true all the time. Still, they help.

    3) When I want to make an earlier entry than the 6-4 MA lines, forexample when I get a confirm by the GANN square of price and time or other confimring indications, or when the 6-4 MA line is VERY far away, I will often look to a simple trendline break to act as my signal. This is a less reliable entry for longer term plays (though will usually get you at least a short term profit), but can be at times less risky than the 6-4. Why? Well it can often lessen the amount of $ risked to a stop out position. Hence my rules for when I use the entry. Note that when the 6-4 is very far away the TL will usually be steep, therefore the break will happen very early in the wave progression.

    4) I use some osc. that I created to help me exit before wave 2 and 4 form. These also help me with the reentry. Sometimes, if things are set up right I may even play the wave 2 and 4 counter trends. Usually I do this after an unusually long move, or if the GET osc study or other studies indicate that the wave count may be incorrect.

    5) You don't mention if you use the PTI, which I think you should. It seems to be amazingly reliable indicator on if a wave 5 will fail or not. I find the wave 4 channel lines to be less helpful, but this could be due to my lack of experience with GET.


    Hope this helps.
    Garth

    Comment


    • #3
      Hi Garth,

      I stand corrected IAG2M...

      The GANN square is interesting -- and confusing. I've played around with the tools like the Gann Square, Eclipse, and MOB.

      There are a few things that confuse me about these tools. #1 - knowing where to click on the chart when using those line tools. #2, interpretation. With the Eclipse and MOB, interpretation isn't as difficult. The Gann Square though, seams interpretation is a selective process.

      How do you know/decide where to click when drawing these tools? How do you interpret the Gann? Maybe I just need to read a book on Gann and educate myself...

      The oscillator - sounds like a fundamental piece of the pie... Part of the problem has to do with my style of trading. I like the Elliott and the MA because it's a yes/no decision. If you add the oscillator into the equation you have to start interpreting the chart. If there were something that would allow me to look @ the OSC and get a yes/no decision from it, I'd be more prone to using it. Do you know if eSignal has anything that does this in an EFS? If not, Perhaps I'll try to write an EFS that can decode the Osc as you've described in your second point.

      The PTI - yes, I definitely use that - truly invaluable piece. As to the channels, I haven't used them. You never know where the top or bottom is so you just wait for price to confirm something -- ie: a reversal and cross of the 6/4MA.

      Yes, it does help. Thank you very much.

      Comment


      • #4
        Hi,

        I'm not an expert on how to use the GANN tools in AGET, but here is my take for the price and time:

        Turn on pivots (it may get a little crowded on a single chart to have both wave counts and pivots, so you might need a new chart).

        I use only the P's, though my guess is good info could be had from the M's as well, I am really only interested in more significant moves in this case. I like taking the highest/lowest P on a chart and using that, as well as the most recent P. You will notice that sometimes you will see a spot in the chart where each of the above studies have lines near or on them. This is usually very significant . However each line in and of itself could be a significant point.

        For example, take a 60 day continuous S&P emini 60 minute chart (ES #F, 60) and overlay pivots. Put the P&T study on the 12/02/02 at 6:30 (Im on PST time...you might have to adjust) bar (H 95525) and draw the study. Notice how well things line up, significant moves often starting on/near the vertical lines and the horizontal lines acting as support/resistance. Also take the 12/31/02 7:30 bar and draw the study, again notice how significant moves start (usually within a bar or three) of the vertical lines.

        From the first line drawn, notice how time line 72 lines up close to the wave 4 label (3 bars away - inclusive of the wave 4 label), this would tend to lend extra weight to the wave 4 label, as well as alloing you to enter on a TL violation (short at 90775) rather than the 6-4 cross (short at 90400).

        As for the GET osc study, you can get at the osc parameters such as the value and the upper and lower stength lines from EFS, but there is no real "yes"/"no" answer (at least not in my book). Instead it adds weight to the evidence. This doesn't mean you can't use it to help with a 100% objective system - I do use it that way. It's just that it is used to verify/clarify what the wave counts are trying to tell you.

        I would be very interested in hearing how others use OSC, but in my book it is about verifying the strength of the wave (is this a well formed and valid wave formation - by using the strength lines and making sure it is violated on or before early on in wave 3) and also for divergance to show that the wave formation is weaking and that the wave 5 (or even wave 3 if you want to play counter trend waves) is ending soon.

        Hope this also helps.
        Garth

        Comment


        • #5
          That's wicked! I played around with the Time Price line tool. I see what you mean on the es#f,60 with the study.

          The time lines line up nice. You can use that in conjunction with the wave count to find the reversal. I'm going to need to play around with them a little more to get a feel for the price lines.

          thanks.

          Comment


          • #6
            Here are the Time & Price Lines for 1/9/03
            Attached Files

            Comment


            • #7
              AGET Time & Price Squares Tool Details

              I was asked to better answer a Time and Price Squares question posed earlier. I put together some information below in hopes it will aid in better understanding this quality AGET tool. –Marc Rinehart

              * * *

              The “Time and Price Squares” (A&PS) tool in Advanced GET was developed, after great research, to help identify change-in-trends using Elliott Wave theory as a guideline.

              The A&PS tool uses Fibonacci (Price) and Gann (Time) values in its default setting.

              In the 13th century mathematician, Leonardo Fibonacci de Pisa, discovered an interesting and useful sequence of numbers. Each number in the series is the sum of the two previous numbers. (For example: 1+2=3, 2+3=5, 3+5=8, 5+8=13, 8+13=21, and so forth.)

              Some Fibonacci numbers are: 13, 21, 34, 55, 89,144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584, and 4181.

              In the last century mysterious trader W. D. Gann introduced his belief that every price a stock or commodity stopps at in an up or down sequence was most often an important mathematical point. Those values are determined either by the division of the "circle of 360 degrees" or by the square of 12, the square of 20, or the square or halfway point of some other number.

              For the sake of simplicity the following (Time) numbers can be used [number of Days, Weeks, Months, or Variable data bars]: 45, 90, 180, 270, 360, 450, 720, 1080, 1440, 1800.

              Other numbers that can be applied: 21, 34, 72, 144, 270, and so forth.

              When you multiple some of these numbers by 10 or 100 to get a sequence that looks like 450, 900, 1800, and so on.

              We have also found the following can work well: 23 (half of 45), 113 (90 + 23), 135 (90 + 45), 225 (180 + 45), and so on.

              How these values work is dependent on the market. For example, 90 (minimum ticks) is a good move from major lows or highs for the Swiss Franc. In the S&P 500 it is not.

              Proper scaling is one key to a successful use of the Time & Price Squares tool.

              The AGET T&PS tool is designed to identify price support and resistance levels, and help with ‘timing’ potential swing patterns using these Gann and Fibonacci numbers.

              When the market trades into both a time and price sequence, we call this a "Time and Price Squares intercection."

              Research shows markets have an above-average propensity to change trends at often within these numbers from a Major high or low sequence.

              I, personally, combine both Fibonacci and Gann numbers in my analysis because I think it improves odds of picking up pivot points in advance.

              * * *

              One area of difficulty with Time & Price Squares, is defining what scale is most effective. As stated above, one scale does not work the same in all examples.

              For a normal stock start with a 1.0 scale setting. The Swiss Franc might use a scale of 0.0001? An index might need a scale of 10 or 100? Grains might use a 0.25 scale setting?

              One technique I personally use is to experiment with incremental price scale settings of 1.0, 0.1, 0.01, 0.001, 0.0001. When I find a scale that works well-- where all the previous major price pivot areas are being picked up-- I will then use that scale with more confidence on the current sequence now in progress.

              If a setting is picking up the larger major swings than that is one T&PS I would really pay attention to in future action.

              * * *

              The primary methodology is to apply Time and Price Squares at the beginning of a sequence.

              As a general rule, use a primary pivot, a significant high or low point, as a starting point.

              * * *

              Check out the recent December Daily Soybean charts posted to our AGET “Trader’s Outlook” and see good real-time example of a “multiple” T&PS application.

              http://markets.tradingtech.com/html/...ataType=number

              http://markets.tradingtech.com/html/...ataType=number

              Comment

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