Failed Wave 5 labelling
Here is the chart for the message below
Happy New Year Philby!
Yeah, all you can do is wait it out and go find something else to trade that is easier. Tom told me years ago that he doesn't like to argue wave counts with people, he just wants to make money trading the easy things. When it gets complicated we just go look for something else easier to trade. We never full in love with any one particular stock or futures contract for this reason. If you do, you end up losing money and wasting a lot of time. Am glad to hear you moved on.
Give it time, however. I think you can still make some money with your stock. My bet still is on this stock eventually going higher rather than significantly lower. You have to remember what caused that massive sell-off to occur 2-3 years ago was something unprecedented in our lifetime. The complexity to follow is understandable when you recognize the psychological damage that occurred.
I would like to follow-up once this stock finally starts trending again. if my instincts are correct, watch for this to occur now some time during the 1st or 2nd quarter of this year... (just a quick guess only. If I had your data I could play with it and maybe improve on these comments.)
Hope you had a good Christmas, and best wishes for a very good 2011.
Talk to you more later,
Originally posted Posted: 09-24-2010 02:48 PM by MR
What you are seeing as a failed W5 I am seeing more as a mislabeling of that wave structure. I think the AGET algorithm will eventually push the W5 back to the last low once it gets more data to confirm what I am seeing.
To me it looks like your data might have just gone through some sort of an internal a-b-c pattern and the subsequent oscillation was a basing pattern that now makes more of a rally a better possibility in the near-term. Those are extremely hard to labels correctly until the data better clarifies itself.
I think your June, July, Aug lows are very capable of holding for now and this current rally is capable of extending higher even if it were to now pullback for a few weeks.
I wish I could tell you more but I really cannot tell too much more unless I had access to this data where I could take more time looking at the totality of AGET tools, techniques, methodologies to better define the wave structure possibilities on the various higher time frames and also better understand the support/resistance picture as well.
It seems like all three time frames suggest the stronger resistance is higher and the immediate support can hold for now.
Hope this helps. I did the best I could my friend with what limited tools I now have available to help you with.
Best wishes on your trade,
your old long-lost friend, marc