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Interesting Chart Patterns To Monitor In Coming Days...

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  • Wed. March 23, 2011 -- Looks like some of the market is running up again. Either a wave 4 completed or a complex wave 4 still in progress. To early to tell yet.

    I did buy a small position in AMZN this afternoon. Alternate wave count labeling it a complex A-B-C in progress and it is holding near 38% support, 200 exponential MA. Figure it could bounce from here or, if not, 151 to 148 next possibility.
    Marc

    Comment


    • Monday, 11 April 2011 -- Are You Ready For Earnings Season? Earning season starts tonight with Alcoa (AA) kicking things off. JP Morgan (JPM) releases earnings before open Wednesday, April 13th. Thursday, after close, Google (GOOG) reports.... The way the market has been acting last week and early this morning wondering what kind of hedging is going on ahead of earnings?
      Marc

      Comment


      • Tuesday, 12 April 2011 -- I do not have any energy positions so can be objective interpreting the past two day energy selloff. My research suggests the longer-term uptrend is still in progress and this is just a good "profit-taking" pullback. I predict NY Crude Oil futures will still have a decent chance of attempting a run at a newer high before Memorial Day weekend. Short-term charts (CL #F) suggest NY Crude Oil is heading to $100- 98 area. There are also supports at $95-94 or 90-88 areas.
        Marc

        Comment


        • Wed, 20 April, 2011 -- Many good stocks that have been in retracing phases gapped up this morning. Watch for gap covering pullbacks and see if you can identify any quality buy setups. We think you still can.

          US Dollar making another new recent low today. Unless their is a noticeable reversal within a week or so, expecting further price declines pulling toward either the 2009 or 2008 lows.

          Energy[/b] prices will stay in uptrends going into summer driving season. Metals continue to be hot, Silver in particular. Gold also continues uptrend. Interest in buying pullbacks still is out there.

          NY Crude Oil futures (CL #F) are still in a strong Bullish chart pattern. (see below previous post comments) It never traded below 105. Odds favor the bulls still control things.

          Originally posted by MR
          [B]... I predict NY Crude Oil futures will still have a decent chance of attempting a run at a newer high before Memorial Day weekend. Short-term charts (CL #F) suggest NY Crude Oil is heading to $100- 98 area....
          Marc

          Comment


          • Thursday, 5 May 2011 -- We did make a newer recent high in the NY Crude Oil futures market last week, as I predicted, but this week we once again topped out and started to retrace. Today's big sell off in NY energy futures is not a bad thing. Even though I predicted higher energy prices this summer, I still think this sell off is healthy. It means sustainable higher energy prices are still a reality but the prices may not get totally out of hand like they did back in 2008. That energy rally then helped add pressure to the stock market crash later that year. I still believe there exists overall net long biases in the energy sector, but now any further price advances in the near-term may not lead to another massive downtrend showing up later this year or early next. If the exchanges continue to demand higher margins it might cut down on unreasonable speculation but now return things to a more healthier behavior more in line with legitimate supply and demand relationships.

            Bottom-line: I personally like today's severe reversals and rotations going on. It will help us continue to grow the economy and create risk/reward setups that make more sense and are safer to trade. Maybe now we can start planning to take a summer vacation again without worrying about gasoline prices growing outrageously high and unpredictable. Our country and the world needs more economic stability if we want less problems in the near-future. Today is not a bad day... It shows me that the powers-to-be are not going to let things get to out of hand and jeopardize this recovery.
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            Last month I posted these comments....

            Tuesday, 12 April, 2011 -- I do not have any energy positions so can be objective interpreting the past two day energy selloff. My research suggests the longer-term uptrend is still in progress and this is just a good "profit-taking" pullback. I predict NY Crude Oil futures will still have a decent chance of attempting a run at a newer high before Memorial Day weekend. Short-term charts (CL #F) suggest NY Crude Oil is heading to $100- 98 area. There are also supports at $95-94 or 90-88 areas.
            Marc

            Comment


            • Wed, 22 May 2011 -- NY Crude Oil contract (CL #F) heading down again, adding pressure to energy stocks. NY Crude Oil has pockets of daily chart supports coming in around $98, 94, 92 and $89-88 areas, worse-case scenario brings CL down to $85. I don't honestly know if those levels will be hit, but if some of them were, would be not a bad thing for bulls. There is still plenty of time for a basing pattern to develop later this month, followed by a rally again in energy again by early to mid-June... is my best guess for now. I see the current pullback in energy futures as more like some kind of a Wave 4 in progress and not a major topping action.
              Marc

              Comment


              • Monday, 16 May 2011 -- I don't expect anything significantly bullish to happen the rest of this month. The markets should continue to drift sideways or experience more sector/group rotation "profit-taking" until traders start to "position square" before Memorial Day weekend. It is a good time to sit tight and wait for better buys to show up later.
                Marc

                Comment


                • Monday, 6 June 2011 --

                  Last month I said, if you are bullish, I did not think anything of great significance was going to happen. What that meant was, if I were wanting to buy something I felt you should wait to buy things at cheaper prices.

                  We are on day 4 of June trading. The market has gotten cheaper since my last post in May. The impression that the US stock market is still be in a correction phase is still there. However, I am more interested now in watching closer for any lower risk, higher quality short-term buy setups that could be developing.

                  I think the odds favor, by mid-June, the risk-verses-reward buy setups will start to be more attractive.

                  Even if the current prolonged corrective phase were to continue in the summer months I still think, at a minimum, a nice decent rally should occur before the July 4th holiday weekend. I have confidence the current pullback that started in May has not had enough time to develop into the major market top some might be anticipating... if you think this is a market top.

                  Originally posted by MR
                  Monday, 16 May 2011 -- I don't expect anything significantly bullish to happen the rest of this month. The markets should continue to drift sideways or experience more sector/group rotation "profit-taking" until traders start to "position square" before Memorial Day weekend. It is a good time to sit tight and wait for better buys to show up later.
                  Marc

                  Comment


                  • Friday, June 10, 2011 -- Still waiting very patiently for the market to go lower and more stocks will start to setup better buy opportunities. I still don't think we have reached that region yet. Maybe after June options expiration, or just before the July 4th weekend will we see more institutional investors more willing to take more hedges off the table. I do see some really good buys later this summer coming... but right now, the quality lower-risk buys just are not showing up yet....

                    Elliott Wave theory terms: Still a weekly or daily complex Wave 4 correction in progress.... is my best guess for now.
                    Marc

                    Comment


                    • Wed, 15 June 2011 -- I think, if you are bullish, it is still NOT wise to buy a stock right now just because prices are cheaper... not if you plan to hold it more than 48 to 72 hours. As we get closer to July 4th weekend and prices continue to work lower, then your buying odds will really quickly improve. Timing the market is tough. We may be getting close to a bottom, but I think you will end up happier if you stay patient just a little longer before you try to pick this bottom.
                      Originally posted by MR
                      Friday, June 10, 2011 -- Still waiting very patiently for the market to go lower and more stocks will start to setup better buy opportunities. I still don't think we have reached that region yet. Maybe after June options expiration, or just before the July 4th weekend will we see more institutional investors more willing to take more hedges off the table. I do see some really good buys later this summer coming... but right now, the quality lower-risk buys just are not showing up yet....

                      Elliott Wave theory terms: Still a weekly or daily complex Wave 4 correction in progress.... is my best guess for now.
                      Marc

                      Comment


                      • Friday, June 17th, 2011 --

                        I have trading friends who always ask about the markets. Here is what I told them today...

                        Going into the weekend still do not feel comfortable trying to buy anything. Think it is safer waiting longer. I see scenario possibilities that still make this bull cautious.

                        For example, am seeing possible commodity rotations that could still break down some uptrends but have not yet broken down. Once that occurs fears of growing inflation will wane and bulls will once again be more capable of regaining the upper hand later by July?

                        Watch to see if NY Crude drops to $85. That will help.

                        Needing more time to figure these markets out so can trade them in safer way. My instincts say these could be sucker moves right now. Not worth the risk yet.
                        Marc

                        Comment


                        • Sure enough it happened yesterday, NY Crude Oil dropped further, propelled by surprise DOE & IEA announcements!
                          Originally posted by MR Friday, June 17th, 2011 --
                          ... Watch to see if NY Crude drops to $85....
                          Next Scenario To Watch For --

                          (1) Energy futures break lower, say 85 to 82, is my guess; (2) Key US Indicies surprise many and drop one more time to better weekly/daily chart supports.

                          (Reason why I think this idea is plausible is I see many traders thinking the 200 MA is going to hold... but I think there is a good chance this time it doesn't. For this to happen, I think the unexpected has to happen. That is why I suggest my scenario above has merit.)

                          Volatility, choppiness should continue until we get back from July 4th holiday weekend. When we see these lower prices hit, hopefully by mid-July, we will witness a nice rebounding market where Bulls can regain the upper hand before mid-summer. If that happens Bulls should be able to carry things higher into August.

                          That is my guess... but what do I know, I am only a lowly little trader?
                          Marc

                          Comment


                          • Thursday, June 30, 2011 -- While we did not get that one more drop in Crude Oil and in the US Indices, we are setting up a week earlier for a decent bullish Net Long bias for July trading. Going into July 4th holiday weekend the US stock market has rebounded nicely on position squaring. This rebound will make it much easier for bulls to buy pullbacks and bears returning more cautious in their trading strategies.

                            I have been predicting for quite a while now that July will be a good month for bulls, and that their would be a return of the uptrend that started in the Spring. While the market is now a week ahead of where I thought it would be, we can have greater confidence as buyers (on future weakness) we can benefit more with this earlier shift in market momentum.
                            Originally posted by MR Friday, June 17th, 2011 -- "...bulls will once again be more capable of regaining the upper hand later by July?"
                            Wall Street traders might be ready for vacations and the roads leading to the Hamptons might be filling up, but there are times when traders wait to leave for vacations when they smell a little more opportunity. I think today and tomorrow could be one of those times. Intuition tells me there still is some bullishness left in this week before vacations officially start.... something to watch for. I bought some things earlier this week and have a nice quick profit. I might have moved up some stops but haven't yet taken profits.

                            Despite all the negative news out there I really think July is going to turn out to be a decent trading month. The strong position squaring rebound this week suggests many other traders might be speculating the same way. If we witness a pullback after our holiday, I will not hesitate to try and buy something again in July.

                            Best wishes to all for a very special July 4th holiday weekend!
                            Marc

                            Comment


                            • Wed, 6 July 2011 -- Noticing a lot of the Silver and some Gold related stocks and ETF's are acting well yesterday and today. There still may be a chance to focus on them to determine if you would like a play... check out these symbols: AGQ, SLW, GDX, IAG, SSW, AG, CDE, ABX, RGLD
                              Marc

                              Comment


                              • Monday, 11 July 2011 -- We start the week with good profit-taking. If we can get 3 to 5 to 8 trading days of 'controlled' profit-taking, we can see the buyers waiting on the sidelines waiting for a good stock to setup at a good support level this month. Earnings are starting soon and later this month there will be concern about whether or not the Federal Government will raise their debt ceiling again. Other than that I think the market is basically trying to lock in some good gains that occurred for the bulls prior to the July 4th holiday weekend.
                                Marc

                                Comment

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