Type 1 and Type 2 Trades Success

[Momentum]

Guys

Can traders using AGET type 1 & 2 trades in short term - say 1 minute to 5 minute charts - on stock index markets give me an idea of percentage profitable trades. Also, are you following Tom Joseph's mechanical trading approach? Please add any other info you think useful to someone deciding whether to go that route.

Momentum

[MR]

In theory it should work the same no matter what time frame, even a 1 to 5 minute. My experience, trading the very shortest time frames requires a shaper, quicker thinking mind to handle the rapidly changing dynamics. Cross-referencing to higher time frames, 3, 5, 10, 15, 30 minute can help improve success odds. Play with it in 'trading mode' after the market is closed, over weekends. You will gain experience, confidence before you trying it with real money. You will not be wasting your time.

[Momentum]

Thanks for your encouragement Marc. Can u pls tell me what I can expect. Is it, say, a 30% win rate requiring a 3 to 1 size of profits v losses or is it 50% where I can work with 2 to1? Just trying to get a handleon what risk reward is necessary. Give me your experience on 60 minutes t/f if you feel more comfortable.

Tx

[MR]

I hesitate to give you an absolute answer, because I don't think anyone really knows. Maybe it is 30 to 50% for a really sharp new guy just starting out, trading 1 to 5 minute charts? Trading that time frame is very hard work. There are other intangibles involved here that make it very hard to give an accurate guess, such as human emotion, experience level, capitialization, intellectual capacity, personality, ability to focus, preparation time. If you want a more detailed answer, let me know.

[Momentum]

I am an experienced trader who is very much a scalper of stock indexes and bonds. With the reduced volaitility, I will have to learn to hold trades longer as there is not enough follow through to achieve the risk/reward I am used to.

I am looking for something to help me manage my trades so I catching longer moves. The reason I use, say, 3 minute and 133 tick charts is that I am used to very tight stops. Tight stops mean shorter time frames.

I will need to invest a lot of effort so am looking for guidance so that I can evaluate whether this is a likely solution for me.

I am familiar with Tom Joseph's "mechanical trading" white paper and am looking to see whether trading the type 1s and 2s on say 3 minute ES or AB in accordance with this methodology will give me a likely hood of, say, at least 50% profitable trades with a win to loss size of at least 1.5 to 1 on the basis that the risk per contract is about 2 points ($100) on ES and 1.5 points ($150) on AB.

I appreciate you or anyone else taking the trouble to reply. I'd really welcome someone from AGET joining this thread too.

Let me make it clear, I AM NOT LOOKING FOR ANY GUARANTEES. I am responsible for my own actions. Every trader is different. All disclaimers apply, but I would like a heads up.

Thanks.

[Ainsley]

Backtesting - the only source

You are the only one who can answer your question ie you will need to do some solid back-testing and create the figures based on your trading method and only then can you see the figures that are accurate in relation to your trading style.

so first you need to setup your excel spreadsheet to record the buy and sells, with the triggers used for the decisions

then spend a few days back-testing until you cant stand it anymore, this should give you enough data to draw your statistics from, ie from here you can work out your

1 - profit / loss
2 - percentage wins / losses
3 - what technique is working better than others
4 - what tools are working better than others for your interpretations
and so forth

its all hard yakka, but hey its fun and practise makes perfect so find the time and let us know the results.


PS - I spent about many hours backtesting after I had learnt the Tom Joseph use of Advanced Get EOD, well worth it, I now know my stats per tool and per combination of tools for my trading style, all interpretation of course but it works just fine.

[Momentum]

Thanks Ainsley. I didn't want to re-invent the wheel and trying to avoid losing a lot of time on something worthless. That's why I was looking for an existing traders successfully using Tom Joseph's mechanical method on day trading. Using the TJ method would take away the requirement that my "style" had anything to do with the result.

If I received some encouraging info, I would then spend the time and effort needed - my greatest problem is to not be trading and give up the profits I am making with the way I now trade. However, if AGET does work for intra day, I would embrace it as it seems the answer to staying in trades longer.

Tx for your input. I'd really like to hear something from someone using AGET intraday. I am a bit concerned at the lack of a reply as it may mean that there is noone successfully using these tools intraday.

[Ainsley]

Intraday

I mainly use Advanced Get EOD however I have used E-Signal intraday and found ti to be fantastic.

What I settled on was using the 60 minute chart and the five minute chart, this seemed to fit the market here however if your market is faster moving then different time scales may well apply

My reasoning for the 60 and 5 minute was essentially the 60 gave 8 bars for the day so I treated it like the weekly and then the 5 minute I treated like the daily, (Keep in mind that I spent several years on Advanced Get EOD prior to using intraday E-Signal)

Seemed to work quite fwell, however you would need to test it to see if it fits your market and style of trading.

What I really liked was using the ellipse as an alert and the market scanner ie the pyramid view of the sectors etc, really quite enjoyable when it all ticks over.

[Ainsley]

I alternated between the 15 and 5 minute chart for my daily type view, depending on how well the stock was being traded, ie if slowish then I used the 15 else I used the 5

[MR]

Hi,

Originally posted by Momentum .... I'd really like to hear something from someone using AGET intraday. I am a bit concerned at the lack of a reply as it may mean that there is no one successfully using these tools intraday.

AGET works intraday, but unfortunately I don't think any AGET old-timers want to share how here anymore.

Let me direct you to a previous discussion on the subject (click here) It might help you a little.

Try doing a search on the topic, other helpful previous discussions might show up.

Wish I could help more, but am kind of busy right now. -marc