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Fabrizio, below is a general review of the AGET "Who's In Control" concept, followed with an answer to your question, ‘who is in control’ in the current SP. I think you have asked an excellent question. I will do my best to answer it.
Here is my understanding of the "Who's In Control" concept.
10/70 (not so sensitive setting) Oscillator- represents commercials [bigger position guys who just cannot get in or out of a market but have to scale in and out over a period of time] buying (strength if above zero) and selling (weakness if below zero)
5/35 (moderate sensitive setting) Oscillator- represents position traders [who are trying to buy and sell for near-term type of moves, any where from 2 weeks to 2 or 3 months type holding of positions] trading buying (strength if above zero) and selling (weakness if below zero)
5/17 (sensitive setting) Oscillator- represents short-term speculators [people who are trading just to get anything they can by getting in and out any where from a day trade to a few days; they don't fall in love with a position or a direction but are more focused on any short-term risk/reward opportunities they can find] buying (strength if above zero) and selling (weakness if below zero)
An oscillator is "In Control to the upside" when it is above that strength line.
An oscillator is "In Control to the downside" when it is below that strength line.
It is possible for more than one oscillator to be "in control" at the same time when they are both or all of the oscillators are above a positive or below a negative strength line. The more above or below the strength line would just add to the overall strength or weakness interpretation.
As to your question about who's in control with the SP? It depends which time frame we are talking about? As of today's date, 7/7/03, when we look at the SPU3 daily we see the 5/17 losing control to the downside, the 5/35 not in any control, and the 10/70 just inching below the upper control band line. On the daily chart it looks like no one is 'in control' currently, but the commercials seem to have the upper hand still.
When we look at SP #F daily we can see the same, but when we reissue it to a weekly chart we now can add another interpretation to this “who's in control” idea. On the SP #F weekly 10/70 Oscillator we are just above zero for the first time since 2000, and inching toward the control band. It isn't in control, but is encouraging for bullish people because it is the first time in a long time the commercials are not 'controlling' it to the downside, and it is not too far from the upper strength band. Both the SP #F weekly 5/35 and 5/17 Oscillators have been 'in control' since late April, and are still well above the strength band lines. My take on this is that on the longer time frame the control is still biased to the upside for now. Shorter-term, basis the daily it has mixed signals.
What is my handle on all this? Using just the "Who's In Control" concept, it is one reason why I am personally still holding ‘bullish’ for this summer and why I am still willing to keep monitoring for Type 1 Buy setups. It is, also, one reason why I personally moved my 401k this spring from the 1% money market mutual fund it was in the past 2 years into three other higher-risk, better reward mutual funds. The weekly Oscillators action helped me grow more confident. If I am correct in my current interpretation of what is to come, I will be rewarded more once the 10/70 Oscillator can push above its weekly strength line.
I created a Weekly and Daily SP #F chart for you to reference to, but the file is too big to attach here, so please go to the Advanced GET User Group where I will attempt to post it.
Also, make sure you look at the DIA post from last week, as it has a similiar supportive analysis and setup picture.
Best wishes, Marc
Here is my understanding of the "Who's In Control" concept.
10/70 (not so sensitive setting) Oscillator- represents commercials [bigger position guys who just cannot get in or out of a market but have to scale in and out over a period of time] buying (strength if above zero) and selling (weakness if below zero)
5/35 (moderate sensitive setting) Oscillator- represents position traders [who are trying to buy and sell for near-term type of moves, any where from 2 weeks to 2 or 3 months type holding of positions] trading buying (strength if above zero) and selling (weakness if below zero)
5/17 (sensitive setting) Oscillator- represents short-term speculators [people who are trading just to get anything they can by getting in and out any where from a day trade to a few days; they don't fall in love with a position or a direction but are more focused on any short-term risk/reward opportunities they can find] buying (strength if above zero) and selling (weakness if below zero)
An oscillator is "In Control to the upside" when it is above that strength line.
An oscillator is "In Control to the downside" when it is below that strength line.
It is possible for more than one oscillator to be "in control" at the same time when they are both or all of the oscillators are above a positive or below a negative strength line. The more above or below the strength line would just add to the overall strength or weakness interpretation.
As to your question about who's in control with the SP? It depends which time frame we are talking about? As of today's date, 7/7/03, when we look at the SPU3 daily we see the 5/17 losing control to the downside, the 5/35 not in any control, and the 10/70 just inching below the upper control band line. On the daily chart it looks like no one is 'in control' currently, but the commercials seem to have the upper hand still.
When we look at SP #F daily we can see the same, but when we reissue it to a weekly chart we now can add another interpretation to this “who's in control” idea. On the SP #F weekly 10/70 Oscillator we are just above zero for the first time since 2000, and inching toward the control band. It isn't in control, but is encouraging for bullish people because it is the first time in a long time the commercials are not 'controlling' it to the downside, and it is not too far from the upper strength band. Both the SP #F weekly 5/35 and 5/17 Oscillators have been 'in control' since late April, and are still well above the strength band lines. My take on this is that on the longer time frame the control is still biased to the upside for now. Shorter-term, basis the daily it has mixed signals.
What is my handle on all this? Using just the "Who's In Control" concept, it is one reason why I am personally still holding ‘bullish’ for this summer and why I am still willing to keep monitoring for Type 1 Buy setups. It is, also, one reason why I personally moved my 401k this spring from the 1% money market mutual fund it was in the past 2 years into three other higher-risk, better reward mutual funds. The weekly Oscillators action helped me grow more confident. If I am correct in my current interpretation of what is to come, I will be rewarded more once the 10/70 Oscillator can push above its weekly strength line.
I created a Weekly and Daily SP #F chart for you to reference to, but the file is too big to attach here, so please go to the Advanced GET User Group where I will attempt to post it.
Also, make sure you look at the DIA post from last week, as it has a similiar supportive analysis and setup picture.
Best wishes, Marc