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The following went out to our HOTS subscribers last week.......i thought i share it with all.......Fari
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(3-28-05) Our Thrust Oscillator is at the bottom of its range, and it is attempting to turn up. Over the next two days we could see either a genuine upside reversal, or, a break-down.
(3-29-05) The positive divergence between price and the T.O. has occurred while the overall trend, and momentum are negative. Consequently, it may cause an upside reversal on Wednesday, which in all likelihood, will be negated by a downside reversal on Thursday. If that happens, expect at least 2-3 real ugly days to follow.
Yesterday (3-29-05) we said:
" The indices made it to support, and the big question is; "will it hold?" It may, for at least a day. The fact that despite the positive divergences between price and T.O./BSE, price continues to come down, it means that the overall momentum is still overwhelmingly negative, and therefore, the odds are better than even that ultimately support will be violated. However, looking at data going back to 1980, three out of every four times, the current set up has resulted in a one day upside reversal, followed by another reversal to the downside, and by an acceleration of the move. Consequently, if support holds tomorrow, we will not know until Thursday, if it was for real."
(3-30-05) Today we got the reversal we talked about yesterday, and tomorrow we'll find out if it was for real. If we get continuation to the upside, the odds that we have a 10-15 day rally ahead of us will be better than even. However, if we get a downside reversal, and a close below today's lows, today's action will be negated, and the probability of at least a three day decline with a magnitude ranging between 3.5% to 5%, will be 75%.
(3-31-05) Today turned out to be a day of "hesitation" and "indecision." However, technically nothing has changed, we simply had a postponement of the resolution to the technical set-up. For tomorrow we got to look at how the indices negotiate with today's highs and lows. If today's highs are exceeded, then yesterday's reversal will remain valid. If today's lows are exceeded on a closing basis, then, yesterday's reversal will be negated and the probability of at least a three day decline with a magnitude ranging between 3.5% to 5%, will be 75%.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
(3-28-05) Our Thrust Oscillator is at the bottom of its range, and it is attempting to turn up. Over the next two days we could see either a genuine upside reversal, or, a break-down.
(3-29-05) The positive divergence between price and the T.O. has occurred while the overall trend, and momentum are negative. Consequently, it may cause an upside reversal on Wednesday, which in all likelihood, will be negated by a downside reversal on Thursday. If that happens, expect at least 2-3 real ugly days to follow.
Yesterday (3-29-05) we said:
" The indices made it to support, and the big question is; "will it hold?" It may, for at least a day. The fact that despite the positive divergences between price and T.O./BSE, price continues to come down, it means that the overall momentum is still overwhelmingly negative, and therefore, the odds are better than even that ultimately support will be violated. However, looking at data going back to 1980, three out of every four times, the current set up has resulted in a one day upside reversal, followed by another reversal to the downside, and by an acceleration of the move. Consequently, if support holds tomorrow, we will not know until Thursday, if it was for real."
(3-30-05) Today we got the reversal we talked about yesterday, and tomorrow we'll find out if it was for real. If we get continuation to the upside, the odds that we have a 10-15 day rally ahead of us will be better than even. However, if we get a downside reversal, and a close below today's lows, today's action will be negated, and the probability of at least a three day decline with a magnitude ranging between 3.5% to 5%, will be 75%.
(3-31-05) Today turned out to be a day of "hesitation" and "indecision." However, technically nothing has changed, we simply had a postponement of the resolution to the technical set-up. For tomorrow we got to look at how the indices negotiate with today's highs and lows. If today's highs are exceeded, then yesterday's reversal will remain valid. If today's lows are exceeded on a closing basis, then, yesterday's reversal will be negated and the probability of at least a three day decline with a magnitude ranging between 3.5% to 5%, will be 75%.