Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

ES Market Analysis

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • ES Market Analysis

    I wanted to show a little of what some of my tools can offer e-mini traders.

    This chart is a combination of 3 of my systems on the ES #F for the last three days..

    MENT Range SR System
    The first system is the MENT Range SR system. It tracks the opening range for a minimum pt level, then establishes the multi-colored lines on the chart. The opening range is BOXED IN with a value ("5" for today). This tells us the opening range was 5 pts.

    The MAGENTA lines are the initial targets for the market (if it gets out of the initial "opening range". I find that in most cases, the market moves right to the magenta lines, then stalls or reverses. Today, although, it pushed thru the magenta line and kept moving lower.

    The other lines are other relative support/resistance levels based on the opening range. The way I use this is, after the opening range is established, the first CLOSE outside the opening range will tell us which side the market will likely attempt to move to. So, if it closes below the opening range before closing above the opening range, I would expect the ES to move lower (to my lower magenta line).

    The green/red DIAMONDS on the chart are a "volume filter". This tool offers me some confirmation the trend is intact and continuing. For example, I might be short while the volume filter is green and I'm waiting for the market to begin a move (knowing the lower opening range was breached first). In this case, I would be trying to sell above the opening range midpoint (the black line in the middle of the opening range) or on any failed attempt at the upper opening range level. Now, if/when the volume filter changes to RED, that means volume is pushing the market lower and I'm waiting for a decent move.

    If you look at yesterday, the market opened with a 5.5 pt opening range, then took out the opening range low. It never came back to anywhere near the opening range before almost touching the lower magenta line. The fact that the market pulled away from the lower magenta line by over 4 pts meant there was a good chance the market was going to reverse. In fact, had we been smart, we could have gone long at the lower blue line (after nearly touching the lower magenta line). After the reversal, the market nearly ran back up to touch the upper magenta line (a potential for 12 pts profit).

    Look at the day before, opening range established and it broke the lower OR level first, then gave us another opportunity to sell near the upper opening range before heading right down to the lower magenta line (a potential for 8 pts profit). Today gave us a protential for almost 9 points profit.

    MENT Auto TrendMaster
    The color-coded indicator is my MENT Auto TrendMaster system. It identifies short term support and resistance as well as provides the color-coded trend indication system. Remember, just because the color changes from red to green does not mean we GO LONG. This is a shorter term system and I use it to confirm actions I'm taking based on the SR system.

    For example, look at yesterday again. Norice the trendmaster system turned green before the market tanked to touch the lower magenta line. That green trend reversal told me the market had to close higher than 1164.25 before the new potential bullish trend would confirm. Although, after nearly touching the magenta level (our initial target), we could have jumped in and rode it most of the way higher thru the afternoon.

    Something else to notice is how the volume filter combines with the trendmaster color markers. The volume filter is a more specific analysis model (longer term) whereas the trendmaster color markers are short term.

    MENT Momentum
    This is a triple banded momentum system with red, green and blue triangles on the indicator. This system presents these arrows as potential trend reversal indicators, but I really like to use this to confirm the previous systems.

    Let's assume the MENT SR system inidicated a potential bearish move (like today) by breaking the lower opening range level first. Well then I would use the MENT Momentum system to look for bearish (red or blue) down triangles to indicate a momentum shift. Two of these were found today (@ 1170.50 & 1168.25). Our magenta target level was 1162.75. If we placed both trades (one contact each) - we could have netted about 14pts profit.

    I'm sure you get the idea how this works. If you have questions, let me know..
    Attached Files
    Brad Matheny
    eSignal Solution Provider since 2000

  • #2
    Here are the last three days..

    Notice how the MAGENTA lines are our targets and the color-coded histogram provides short-term trend direction..
    Attached Files
    Brad Matheny
    eSignal Solution Provider since 2000

    Comment


    • #3
      ...I also notice that your time frames for opening ranges are all different. Does this affect how your MAGENTA line is calculated? Can you explain why your opening range today looks to be about 65 mins, yesterday's about 25 mins, and day before's about 35 mins? Just curious.
      Michael

      Comment


      • #4
        The Opening Range..

        Is dynamic. I set it to a minimum of 4.0 pts, thus it waits for the opening range to be >= 4.0 and then waits for the pivot reversal signal. You can learn more and try this program (and the TrendMaster) on my web site (for free). There is also documentation for these application that explains it in more detail.

        B
        Brad Matheny
        eSignal Solution Provider since 2000

        Comment


        • #5
          Brad,

          As usual brillant piece of work, is there a link available to download the efs code and doc you refer to because I couldn't find it....thanks...
          Glen Demarco
          [email protected]

          Comment


          • #6
            ah, got it brad.

            downloaded it, and am in 2nd day of running it. thanks.
            Michael

            Comment


            • #7
              Here is the link..

              http://www.ment.com/ESModsI.htm

              I set the MINIMUM OPENING RANGE to 4.0 for the ES

              I've been watching it with stocks too, I set the MIN OR to 0.25~0.40 (really depending on the volatility of the stock).

              Today has been a really flat day. The ES has never really broken the OR (opening range). The OR bias is BEARISH (from the "pivot pattern" at the end of the OR). We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

              B
              Brad Matheny
              eSignal Solution Provider since 2000

              Comment


              • #8
                onstructive Comment

                Hi Brad,

                I have the following comments after watching your efs studies (on a trial run) for the past couple of days:

                1. I initially loaded all the three efs files on a 5 minute chart. eSignal performance slowed down to a crawl. I suspect that the visual graphics take up a lot of processing power. So I left the MENT Range SR efs only and removed the other two. eSignal performance improved quite a bit.

                2. The intial range box is drawn even after the specified period - I had mine set to 15 minutes. Once I exited eSignal and got back it appeared to display it correctly. Am I doing something wrong here?

                3. Is it possible to get the green and red "diamond" indicators to display on the visible part of the chart - if price extends well below or above the opening range, unless you scroll up and down to see it it is not visible. Ofcourse, I could change the auto scaling to manual but even then I would run out of real estate if there was a run like this week.

                I look forward to your reply. Thanks.

                Sesh

                Comment


                • #9
                  Sesh...

                  Thanks for the comments. Here are some answers..

                  1. EFS Speed. Yeah, the graphics can slow things down quite a bit. The way I solved that was to create a time template from 6:30 to 13:30 for only 5 days. This way I could get the information I need and keep the speed up as high as possible. For example, right now I have it running on 3 charts with little or no speed problems (on a P4 2.3 Ghz system)

                  2. You don't set the initial OR box to TIME, it is set with a minimum POINT level (I suggest 4.0 for the ES). maybe I don't understand your comments??

                  3. Yeah, I can move the graphics a bit, but don't want it to conflict with the other graphics. But, in the event that you need a minor change, I'm sure I can make it for you. I normally re-size the chart to keep what I want visible at all times.

                  Glad you liked it and let me know if I can help any further.

                  B
                  Brad Matheny
                  eSignal Solution Provider since 2000

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Update..

                    Last Week (Thu and Fri) barely made it out of the opening range and presented limited opportunity (unless you traded within the OR).

                    Today, although, worked perfectly.. The OR was exactly 4.0 pts and the market immediately broke the upper OR (indicating a bias towards the upside). For the next few hours, the market traded within the OR (giving us multiple opportunities to ENTER with a stop loss below the lower OR level (less than 3 pts away).

                    The Volume Filter and the Trend Master both showed good signs of bullish activity, then BOOM - off to the races. Right up to our MAGENTA target level, then reversed back down 3.0 pts..

                    A pretty clean day all in all.
                    Attached Files
                    Brad Matheny
                    eSignal Solution Provider since 2000

                    Comment

                    Working...
                    X