Fibo & Geometry

[theplumber]

Chart observations

[vciro]

Dear Plumber

Dear Plumber,
your analysis are always amazing. I'm now focused on the study of relationship of price and time. I have some question for you.
1) i have see that you use the cycle analyzer, related to hurst study. which is your opinion about it ?

2) which are the book and instrument to understand the study ofe price/time relation ?

I have made some obseration about the S&P market geometry:

from march 2003 close (804) the market has made 360 point to march 2004 High, and this is appening after 359 day, or one unit of time for one unit of price. from march high the market can move down to 1074 for 1 september 2004, here the market will be 90 point down or 90° degree in space and 180° or 180 day after the march high. or rather one unit of space and two unit of time.
what do yuou think about it ?

Best at all, Ciro.

[theplumber]

Re: Dear Plumber

Originally posted by vciro
Dear Plumber,
your analysis are always amazing. I'm now focused on the study of relationship of price and time. I have some question for you.
1) i have see that you use the cycle analyzer, related to hurst study. which is your opinion about it ?

2) which are the book and instrument to understand the study ofe price/time relation ?

I have made some obseration about the S&P market geometry:

from march 2003 close (804) the market has made 360 point to march 2004 High, and this is appening after 359 day, or one unit of time for one unit of price. from march high the market can move down to 1074 for 1 september 2004, here the market will be 90 point down or 90° degree in space and 180° or 180 day after the march high. or rather one unit of space and two unit of time.
what do yuou think about it ?

Best at all, Ciro.

Had alot more to say before my post got rejected, sent back and then server error appeared. Hit the back button to an empty screen. Oh well

I like the cycle pack, above all other software I have except AIR. Books and software on geometry? Wave59 for tools and Ensign for ease of use. Books , just about any will do, I'm a Jenkins fan but 99% of people who have bought any geometry book don't ever apply the concepts after skimming through it. What's important is just doing it and using your ideas to see if they work.

Here's a chart for you, using the flower pattern from Wave59 using the March 2003 and Aug 2003 lows as anchors.

[theplumber]

Don't know if anyone here trades the DAX but this chart looks interesting. It's from Jason Roney, from http://www.minyanville.com/ and I'll be here with the rest of my friends from Minyanville.com http://www.acteva.com//booking.cfm?bevaID=69158 in August.

[theplumber]

Cycles

Going over my work and others to see where I stand in my risk profile and I see many variations as to the cyclical bottoming cycle coming (or even the possibility that the low July 27 WAS the big cycle bottom, I have to include this possibility). For starters, I'm a cast out again with my bullishness until May-June 2005. Some people I know , maybe smarter than me, that say the top is in for this cyclical bull run and it's a slow bleed down until 2006. I still show through various models that one more rise to flush out all bears and then return to the bear. The AIR original model shows the 78 week cycle as August (this model was done December 2003 and is pure astro)
which would be OK with cyclical variations. Cycles don't ever hit exact, if they did everyone would be rich. They stretch and expand with price as the arbitor. The low in Sept 2001 wasn't an exact cyclical date but price got extended enough to be a contracted cyclical bottom, by 1-3 weeks depending on what method you use.

The updated model AIR made in June shows a true Hurst 80 week cycle bottom in Oct


This is what I mean by cycle methods. Science has averaged the cycles, but Hurst back in his day with the computer hardware he had at the time found the 80 week cycle. With the advent of computers and cyclical models in every hedge fund office today you get the reason why they vary now.

The cyclepack shows this 80 week cycle in the weekly mode

Look at the cycle numbers and you see 81, 105.25, 68.25, 40,5, and 49.5 week cycles in the projector and 81, 105.25, 68.25, 40.5, 49.5, and 33.25 in the analyzer. I just explained the 80 week but look at the others. Some cycle "experts" have wrote newsletters on 20 week and 4 year cycles. The 20 "may" be the half point of the 40.5 the cyclepack found. The 105.25? Looks close to the half way point of the 4 year cycle, or 208 weeks. Hurst found the 4.5 year cycle so in between is maybe the 210.5 weeks? That's what the science of the cyclepack says.

The weekly cycles are the most reliable, they can be contracted by events, like 9/11, but they will show in the weekly charts. Daily cycle is where the game really begins. This now depends on some kind of human interaction. In other words by me manipulating the data lookback I can make the cycles point up or down. So Look back say 256 days before 1982 and you get a cyclical future projection of flat to down and miss the huge run. Look back further, say 1024 days, and you get another model, one that shows the bottom is in and cycles are pointing up. This is what I mean below, the first is the small data window




and this is the big data window


They tell 2 different tales. So have to respect the weekly cycles until proven other wise. The weekly above shows a lower low coming to 1050 something with August as the time frame . Just thinking out loud about possibilities.

[SERGIO.M]

S&P Montly

[SERGIO.M]

Weekly

[digilume]

That 192 diatonic stuff

the cash/ pit session works well on the 192 basis, see the 15 min INX cash charts attached.
these points were at good swing reversals:

.25
.50
.66
.75

these were not so good really
.125
.33

.875 was OK ish

If you add the Sq of 9 lines starting from the same high, you get time and price lining up well at the .25 .50, .66 .75 levels. & 1.00

try it out by setting the fibo cycle lines to
.125 .25 .33 .50 .66 .75 .875 and 1.0 in the
time axis and the Price axis.
There is another scale that I have posted mainly on the price axis - the difference in the books being the Ascending and Descending octaves

There is absolutely no fitting in the attached chart - its 192 15 min periods from a swing high.

[theplumber]

Re: That 192 diatonic stuff

Originally posted by digilume
the cash/ pit session works well on the 192 basis, see the 15 min INX cash charts attached.
these points were at good swing reversals:

.25
.50
.66
.75

these were not so good really
.125
.33

.875 was OK ish

If you add the Sq of 9 lines starting from the same high, you get time and price lining up well at the .25 .50, .66 .75 levels. & 1.00

try it out by setting the fibo cycle lines to
.125 .25 .33 .50 .66 .75 .875 and 1.0 in the
time axis and the Price axis.
There is another scale that I have posted mainly on the price axis - the difference in the books being the Ascending and Descending octaves

There is absolutely no fitting in the attached chart - its 192 15 min periods from a swing high.

Just playing around with your settings and pyrapoint.

[theplumber]

Doodling

Just doodling

[theplumber]

This is maybe THE most interesting chart I've seen all day. Bottoms Aug 10, Fed day and CSCO earnings day. I got a turn time line around the 10th, thought it would be a high but who knows maybe a better bottom instead.

[theplumber]

A very interesting website. For astro fans, this guy has an amazing knowledge base http://www.techedgecycles.com/

[theplumber]

Just 2 charts that say it all. This was posted in another thread here many moons ago
and here is the updated

and leave this from yesterday for all non-technically inclined

[theplumber]

Should be interesting now based on geometric patterns. Beware of asset allocators today if your short, they usually show up around lunch time but I'm seeing nibblers all morning.

[SERGIO.M]

S&P

critical point