Fibo & Geometry

[SERGIO.M]

Originally posted by tedk
Nice pira overview on the SP. Any particular reason why you start on the Sep-2000 top rather then the March Top?

Thank you Tedk, see last plumber's post.

[theplumber]

Re: Re: Re: gann

Originally posted by SERGIO.M
Only some input for Ciro

Interesting, I didn't realize AGET had that function.

[theplumber]

Some days I just love trading. This is the fill, 1073, and now I'm out @ 69. I would show why if anyone asked why I was even short to begin with. Hmmm, maybe time to go long now, just love days like Fed day.

[DuaneG]

Instant volatility.....just add Greenspan.

[theplumber]

Originally posted by DuaneG
Instant volatility.....just add Greenspan.

You guys trade there?

[theplumber]

Here's an overly simplistic explaination for the 1000 contracts short position. Obviously there are more variables than just the 2 models below but this is an excelent start. The left is the cyclepack and on the right is the Pesavento map. The cyclepack I've explained before that the gaps play havoc on any model so I waited 15 minutes and updated the model. It forecasts a high just before the announcement. The Pesavento map was updated Monday night and also had a huge drop, but missed the bigger cycle run up after. Also , again for simplicity sake, traders were going flat ahead of the announcement, eye balling the gap @ 1080. So as I've said before the first move is usually a headfake and it was, down. Needless to say I went long after my post and made a little more lunch money. Maybe now I can afford to take the wife somewhere other than Micky D's tonight

[theplumber]

One reason also to look for longs today was this chart. The MCO (the white line is McClellan Osc )wasn't going down, stoch was oversold and multiple hit bottoms on the cyclical models. When traders see this they look for an excuse to reverse the trend.

[DuaneG]

Originally posted by theplumber
You guys trade there?

Some of us do....all of us are fairly astute market watchers

[theplumber]

Originally posted by DuaneG
Some of us do....all of us are fairly astute market watchers

Dream job

[theplumber]

There's a saying, the news break with the cycles (or maybe the other way around, who knows) but these 2 models were updated at the lows and then the news broke with the Saudi minister.

[its1111]

Plumber

I wanted to tell you how much I appreciate your posts and thoughts, at first I thought you were full of yourself, but the more and more I read what you have to say, I can see that you like interacting with people, you help people and you are very intelligent.
I know this sounds like I am looking for something, but that is not the case, I just believe that you should give credit where credit is do and you have worked hard in your trade and it's admirable. so thank you for posting your charts and ideas.
Mark

[theplumber]

Originally posted by its1111
Plumber

I wanted to tell you how much I appreciate your posts and thoughts, at first I thought you were full of yourself, but the more and more I read what you have to say, I can see that you like interacting with people, you help people and you are very intelligent.
I know this sounds like I am looking for something, but that is not the case, I just believe that you should give credit where credit is do and you have worked hard in your trade and it's admirable. so thank you for posting your charts and ideas.
Mark

I was at one time VERY full of myself. What I was taught, more than anything by Jim Simons, was to get over myself b/c I would never be the trader I wanted to be if I didn't. I want to be wrong now. Let me explain, in emini futures the market can only go 1 of 2 ways, up or down. If I'm right, great I use proper money mangement and make the most of the trade. If I'm wrong, what I use to do was stop and analyze why which wasted an opportunity b/c NOW I know exactly where the market is headed. Controling my stops (sweating bullets yesterday) and flipping when wrong are my demons to success, which held me back. If I'm ever wrong about anything, please let me know b/c it's only then do we learn IF we accept being able to be wrong. My trading is so much smoother now, I just want people to maybe learn what I did, but not the hard way I did. I blew through so much money the past 6 years that when I came to get over my demons I was down to my last 2K, yes $2000, and made a living with just that to where I am today.

Something else that I learned along the way, I worked for 3 months for a subcontractor for NASA doing number crunching and modelling. What I soon figured out was genius is unrewarded. Wave59, Ensign's Pesavento map and Divergence's Cycle pack is pure genius and I feel the need to let it be known. I've not had one problem with Esignal's data, EVER, so I rate them the best, but getting through peoples head this is difficult and can only be achieved through time, well I'm still banging away at it to spread the word. Here's a sample of the cycle pack so far to now.

[theplumber]

The time is coming

I said that price may become an arbitor with cycles and that
variable may come next week. I expect traders to probe the
down side Friday but maybe close positions after. One thing I
expect next week is a probe to 1050 b/c it's expiry week but a
flush to 1025 is possible. The only thing that bothers me about
coming to a conclusion of a bottom next week is the traders I've
talked to can't wait for Sept to come, and the talk isn't positive.


Everything is going according to plan, and this makes me
nervous. Working with models as much as I have over the year
I've learned to like them not to be so exact, that's curvefitting. So
knowing the market loves to frustrate the maximum amount of
people I'm waiting for that wrong turn to happen. If anyone can't see the charts I post go to here

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display_album.php?id=889

this is almost perfect, look out below if it's correct next week



Same here


This shows more like what I'm thinking for next week, a tradable bounce




And finally this is from Sentimentrader.com last week and this is some
great stuff, well worth the money.

[FibbGann]

Keep it flushing for I am loving this ride!

Fibbgann

[theplumber]

Originally posted by FibbGann
Keep it flushing for I am loving this ride!

Fibbgann

Back at ya big guy