Would this System Work, is it too simple?

[mahler007]

All it is, is a simple MACD (6,16,27) crossover. A buy signal is when the MACD fast crosses above the MACD slow. An exit is the opposite and also triggers a reversal entry. Below are some screenshots from Esignal with results from 04/06/28-05/03/31. Using a 400Tick Timeframe.

I also set the backtest to simulate each entry and exit to be off by 2 ticks on the Russell 2000, to try to simulate a poor entry on each trade.

The system seems too simple to produce these results? Am I missing something here? Any help would be great!

[ACM]

mahler007
Without seeing the script it is impossible to tell if the logic is correct or if there is some flaw.
You may want to post the efs
Alex

[mahler007]

EFS File

Keep in mind this is a VERY simple system. I had another system based around this indicator settings, I removed everything but this.

And the profit went way up.

[ACM]

mahler007
As far as I can see the strategy is looking ahead to the next bar in the conditions. For example in Set1 you have



which translates to
if the Signal is greater than 0 AND
the value of the MACD on this bar is less than the value of the Signal on this bar AND
the value of the MACD on the next bar is greater than that of the Signal of the next bar AND
the strategy is not long THEN....
...go Long on this bar (not shown in the image)

It should instead look like the folllowing



Notice that in the third condition vMACD5_16.getValue(MACDStudy.MACD, 1) and vMACD5_16.getValue(MACDStudy.SIGNAL, 1) are now vMACD5_16.getValue(MACDStudy.MACD, -1) and vMACD5_16.getValue(MACDStudy.SIGNAL, -1) ie they are referencing the values at the prior bar (Bar offset -1) instead of the next bar. I also switched the <> operators around.
Implement these changes throughout the script and see what results you get.
Alex