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Gambling With the Wrong Dice, with Avital Pilpel.
Lengthy philosophical essays on our inability to observe probability distributions.
The first part examines the possible consequences of different families of unobserved processess
1) Random Processes, Opacity, and Knowledge: The Central Problem (A problem for which mathematical statistics has no answer Draft ). The second shows how the survivorship bias causes us to believe that processes are more stable than they actually are. The problem is more general than one can think.
2) Surviving: the wrong reference case.
3) The third part will include a top-down presentation of the history of ideas in inductive inference
Note: There is no randomness in the markets. The above essays is centered on Financial Behaviourl ;
Irrespective to the actual market direction , please check out how bubbles build up and make a serious graphic comnparison amid the mid march 2000 and now.
__________________
Fabrizio L. Jorio Fili
Lengthy philosophical essays on our inability to observe probability distributions.
The first part examines the possible consequences of different families of unobserved processess
1) Random Processes, Opacity, and Knowledge: The Central Problem (A problem for which mathematical statistics has no answer Draft ). The second shows how the survivorship bias causes us to believe that processes are more stable than they actually are. The problem is more general than one can think.
2) Surviving: the wrong reference case.
3) The third part will include a top-down presentation of the history of ideas in inductive inference
Note: There is no randomness in the markets. The above essays is centered on Financial Behaviourl ;
Irrespective to the actual market direction , please check out how bubbles build up and make a serious graphic comnparison amid the mid march 2000 and now.
__________________
Fabrizio L. Jorio Fili
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