Efficacy :: Win / Loss Ratio QUERY

[ikeya]

Hi Everyone ..............

My method / style is a discretionary one based upon candlestick theory in the main , but where l able able to discern an EW pattern l tend to incorporate such into my analysis ..............

ln order to become more aggressive in my trading , l need to be backed-up by a more or less mechanical system such as might be obtained through the use of the GET program ...........

Hence , it would be very useful for me to know what might be the win / loss ratio for an average trader using the programme ..........

ls there anyone out there who might suggest , reliably , what that ratio is , please ??????

Thank you for reading this query .....

Regards , Kazumi Ikeya .........

[cwrrussell]

Win/Loss

ikeya,

The Advanced GET strategies are rule based and as such can lead to a mechanical system. However, you can also use them in a discretionary manner to support what you are already doing.

As for a win/loss ratio for an average trader that would be difficult to define as each trader is unique and there are many variables (such as which trigger is used and is it used aggressively or more conservatively). What we stress with the GET strategies is risk management and fitting your trading to your personality as much as you can. We do offer a way for you to try the tools and the great education (Mentoring and Foundation sessions we now do) risk free. I would contact Russ Dailey at 1-800-322-1617 if you have an interest in that. This will also lead to interaction with many other users who might be able to fill you in on their individual experiences with GET.

Good Trading
Craig Russell

[ikeya]

Thank you Mr Russell for your very prompt reply ..

Naturally l understand that it would be very difficult , if not nigh impossible , to find a stat such as the one about which l asked ..

Best wishes , Kazumi Ikeya ..

[taowave]

Hi Kazumi,
You have brought up a very good point and addressed one of the major limitations of Advanced Get.There is no backtest feature,and there is no way of performing a walk foward analysis in which one has a method of entering their entries and exits and producing various trading statistics....

Advanced Get offers many great tools,but the user has no idea if these tools actually work.You must be a 100% discretionary trader,and hope you are a talented one at that.You will not know what your P&L is,you will not know profit factor,max DD,or any other measure that one may need....

From what I understand,Esignal will be incorporating their backtesting,system tools with Get,so that should be a step in the right direction.Unfortunately,Esignal code is a bear...

What you really need is a visual backtester,where you can double click on a chart and Enter Long/Short,and the prices will be recorded and hopefully some useful statistics will be generated...

Then and only then will you know if Elliot wave,XTL,Mobs and all the other tools actually have any predictive value that should be incorporated into ones trading plan....

Originally posted by ikeya
Thank you Mr Russell for your very prompt reply ..

Naturally l understand that it would be very difficult , if not nigh impossible , to find a stat such as the one about which l asked ..

Best wishes , Kazumi Ikeya ..

[Ainsley]

Ratio of good trades

All sorts of stats here, one persons average may never be realised by another it all depends on how you interpret the market using the tools you have and interestingly two people with the same tools can get different results, this is what makes the market so dynamic and tradeable

My average has been in the high 70's and low 80% but this changes year to year, last year I was just under 60 so I am reverting back to my original trading strategy.

To find out your trading ratio can be done in two ways, use your live trade results or setup a spreadsheet and manually backtest any number of stocks over a designated timeframe, this is how I did it and how I selected the tools to use for the real work

so in summary the only way is the old fashioned way, manual backtesting and record your results and then analyse

the testing is somewhat time consuming but well worth it, enjoy, I did, it was an eye openor,

[taowave]

Hi Ainsley,

Wow..you took the old fashioned approach and manually backtested...Very impressive!!!!!

I am sure it was an enjoyable exercise,but IMHO Advanced Get shoul do most of that work for you..If I am not mistaken,AG EOD is a $3,000 program...An upgrade is $2,000.That is probably the most expensive EOD program on the market along with TradingBlox..For that money,I think Get should provide some mechanism to calculate risk reward metrics...Its simply inexcusable and unacceptable not to,and it should not be a difficult task

Just out of curiousity,how many symbols did you manually backtest??

[ikeya]

Hi taowave and Ainsley ..

Thank you very much indeed for your replies and inputs ..

My current style , which has been proven to quite robust throughout the last ten years or so , approximates a 75 % W : L Ratio , with which l am quite happy ..

l am pleased to know that someone has achieved a 70 ~ 80 level of success ..

Yes , it would much handier if GET incorporated a backtesting routine .. However , l think if Ainsley is able to achieve the 70~80 rate , then , by comparison , the GET programme might help me as a back up mechanism even if it is still a discretionary process rather than a mechanical one .. By which l mean , if a mechanical process makes the EW Counts well enough , then l should be able to interpret those Counts well enough as well ..

Only a free trial could prove or disprove my assumption as to that without incurring the expensive cost of an unfree trial of course ..

Thanks again , yours , Kazumi ..