MOB question

[AdrianMBL]

Can suypport please try to explain what causes the MOB to suddenly change its projected forecast from one level to the next. Sometimes it will forcast a marginal move and other times it suggest a large move. Sometimes it starts with a smal projection and just the addition of one extra bar wil cause the projection to expand. I know it uses momentum, acceleration and various ratios of prior moves, but I'm after a general idea in of what causes these sudden shifts. Are you able to provide some guidance here? How many swings does it look at for instance? Does it use the pivot points provided by GET?

Thanks,
Adrian

[AdrianMBL]

To Support,

Just wondering if there is some reason you have chosen not to respond to my basic question on the MOB?

Adrian

[Ainsley]

You need to review the Frost and Prechter book on Elliott Wave Principles, this book is a must as it will help you understand the Elliott Waves and the generaly how the MOB and Elipse is created, its quite a fascinating read and something you should undertake as part of your learning curve

In particular I draw your attention to the area that will answer your question, lookup the fibonacci examples of curvature and then compare this to the elliott wave and the MOB / Ellipse projection


Enjoy (I did

[AdrianMBL]

Thanks for being the only person to take the time to respond so far Ainsley, but i'm afraid your response doesn't answer my question. I am extremely familiar with EWT and how markets expand and contract in their trend moves, but my question related to the MOB and this chart in particular. Its easy to say in hindsight, 'yes its obvious why the MOB expanded its forecast because a bigger move ensured', but my question was what on this chart caused it to decide to expand. There is nothing there that is intuitively obvious. This expaned prediction was made when price hadn't even finished rallying from the origination point. Why not just forecast another small marginal low as it almost always does? I'm hoping someone from support knows the answer. I suspect though they don't, and it will require a response from one of the original GET team members. I'm not asking for the secret formula, just a general idea on what causes the MOB to suddenly expand its forecast.

Adrian

[MR]

help with mob question

Adrian,

First, I am not a support person, just an eSignal friend is all. . . but will try to assist you nevertheless.

Here is a brief link that reviews a little, the MOB topic... Review of MOB, part 1. I wish I could find part 2 as I think that one might better help you understand your MOB questions. (Sorry, I cannot find that one, as my time is limited for being here.)

The MOB uses AGET pivot points in its calculation to determine to some degree the strength behind the MOB. If, for example, it is a minor pivot, you get a small MOB, a primary pivot, a bigger MOB. My guess the major shift changes may have something to do with a pivot point being re-identified as a different level pivot, but if it is a minor shift, just call it an anomoly? One way around this i have found is to reissue that chart to time frames immediately before and after that chart time frame you are using and it can/will either provide supportive MOB's or slightly different. It becomes a judgement call which MOB you respect the most when these shiftings happen. I tend to pick the area where the most MOB's come in using different time frame from same pivot point application point. It is also why you also sometimes have no chose but the reapply a MOB in some instances, particuarly when it approaches the level it could be hit.

The 'hash' or timing marks are immediate previous data related calculations. It is more a data intensive process to define proper timing bars. If you have a sudden move, often it takes more time for the hash markets to have enough data to best calculate its optimum timing alignment guide. The only solution in those cases it to keep reapplying.

Another idea, go do a "Search" about MOB. I have a strong feeling if you go back to the posts a few years or further back, we had some very good discussions on MOB's back then that might further illuminate this topic for you. I could have sworn, for example, I posted part 1 and 2 here in the AGET forum under a thread, but dont have time right now to find it.

Also, if you could identify that chart symbol and time frame you used, I might be able to give you more assistance as it relates to that chart. When I look at that chart as you posted it, I cannot see any identificate on it to better help you with it as you requested. Sorry.

Sincerely, marc

Originally posted by AdrianMBL
Can suypport please try to explain what causes the MOB to suddenly change its projected forecast from one level to the next. Sometimes it will forcast a marginal move and other times it suggest a large move. Sometimes it starts with a smal projection and just the addition of one extra bar wil cause the projection to expand. I know it uses momentum, acceleration and various ratios of prior moves, but I'm after a general idea in of what causes these sudden shifts. Are you able to provide some guidance here? How many swings does it look at for instance? Does it use the pivot points provided by GET?

Thanks,
Adrian

[AdrianMBL]

Hi Marc,

Thanks for the reply. I have read the document you referred to, and it gives a brief outline as to the variables that go into calculating the MOB. I have no doubt they use the pivot point labels in some sense, but if you do the work you will find many many exceptions to the rule about higher pivots giving larger projections. In fact if you think about it, there is actually no reason why a larger pivot would give an expanded MOB projection. You can just as easily for example have an extended wave 3 on a minor wave degree as you can on a higher wave degree. Make sure we understand though I am not talking about absolute points, but the relative size of the projection compared to prior waves. Obviously a large pivot will have a large points MOB prjection, but relative to the size of the swing they are no different to a small pivot projection.
As to what the chart is, it really is irrelevant as we are talking theory here. We can draw MOB's on any chart, any timeframe and see the same small and large RELATIVE projections being made. I'm suspecting support dont respond because 1. they dont know the answer, or 2. they simply dont wish to discuss this aspect of the MOB.
Its disappointing they don't at least acknowledge the question with a response.

Adrian

[eSignal_Brent]

MOB Behavior Inquiry

Hi AdrianMBL,

Please excuse the delayed response, and thank you for your patience. I'm forwarding your request to our educators in our eSignal Learning team so your question can be answered promptly and thoroughly.

Thanks,

Brent
Advanced GET Product Management

[cwrrussell]

MOB

Adrian,

The reason you end up with different looking MOBs in size has to do witht he pivot you measure the MOB from. If you take the MOB from a Primary Pivot level it will be big and fat. The lesser the pivot the smaller and skinnier the MOB. It really is that simple. Marc and Ainsley also said this and thank you gentlemen. Its questions just like this that have led us to bring a higher level of education to go with the Advanced GET product. We now have live online sessions a couple times a week for people who have upgraded to the newest GET version where we answer these exact kinds of questions.

Good Trading
Craig

[AdrianMBL]

Hi Brent,

Thanks for your follow up. I hope your educators are able to come up with some sort of logical explanation as to how the MOB works in these situations. Its extremely important to me.

Hi Craig,

I'm not sure you have spent much time looking at the MOB, nor understand what I am asking. I can show many examples of MOB from P pivots that are small in time and size, and I can draw MOB's from J pivots that are huge. So you see, its not so simple as you might suggest. The reason for the above discrepancy is fairly obvious when you see the price structure. BUT, this isnt what I am talking about at all. It is the size of the projected MOVE RELATIVE to the prior swing that is important to me and what I have been referring to all along. See the attached 2 charrts of the same market but one is cash and the other is futures.
You should notice 2 things on this chart. First, that small or large projections can come from a P pivot. Secondly, that even though the price structures are almost identical we have different size projections from the same P pivots on each chart. My question remains....what are the key factors on these charts that are causing the projections to be different on each chart and what causes the subtle change from a small projection to a large one? I'm hoping Brent's team will be able to provide me an answer without giving the formula. I'm just after rough guidelines.

Many thanks,
Adrian

[AdrianMBL]

the 2nd chart

[cwrrussell]

MOB question

Adrian,

Can you please give me the exact Market and Timeframes of these charts?

Craig

[AdrianMBL]

S&P cash and back adjusted continuation August, 2000.

[cwrrussell]

MOB question

Timeframe please?

Craig

[AdrianMBL]

Daily, but that should be obvious as soon as you open your chart to that point in time.

[cwrrussell]

MOB

Not neccesarily, I just want to be able to make sure we are looking at the same thing. Thanks

Craig