Stock Market Poll

[jims_id]

Hello folks

I haven't posted in a long time but I wonder if the administrators of this thread could set up a poll. I think we are at a critical juncture in the stock markets (but what the hell do I know). Here's the suggested poll question:

Which do you believe is correct regarding the markets as they stand on 1-26-06:

(1) The rally that began today is a gift from the trading gods to give everyone a chance to get out of their longs, or

(2) This is the start of a huge rally that will blast through the recent highs registered earlier this month.

Have fun and good trading.

JM

[MR]

Jim,

My long lost Advanced GET friend! How have you been?
Hey, if you want me to do a market analysis on any major
index, let me know. I will get to work on it. If you still have
my email address, drop me a line. Hope you're doing well.

(PS-- Our oldest son was Green High School Dec Student-of-the Month.
He was in the Canton Repository, too. Wonder if you saw it?)

[jims_id]

Hi Marc!!!

Congrats on your son's accomplishments! I don't get the Repository (I'm a reakin urinal, ie Beacon Journal, subscriber) or I would have sent you my congrats sooner. When it comes to matters of relative importance, family matters sure make the markets pale in comparison.

I would love to see your analysis of the markets...including the bond market if you've been looking at it. As you can probably tell from my poll question, for the first time in quite a while I've been getting real queazy about the stock markets. So that probably means they are heading to the moon. I can't seem to shake my new-found fear....maybe I need psychotherapy (my wife would concur on this last point).

Anyway, great to hear from you!! I still use AGET everyday....it's like a heroin addiction. I would feel naked without it.

[MR]

Jim,

Market getting some good selling today.

Marc

[jims_id]

Hi Marc!!!

Hi Marc!!!

Yeah, a bit of selling today. Could this recent rally have been a '2'??? If she breaks last month's lows in the coming days (which is a big if) that would seem to be somewhat of a confirmation of a possible 3 in progress.

Do you follow the A/D line? I've been wondering....has there ever been an intermediate term top with the A/D line strong? I'd love to see the stats on that. If we head south big, that A/D line could have been the hook because a ton of people follow it (including me).

Best regards my friend. By the way, where is your son planning to head for college?


Jim

[MR]

Jim,

To be honest, I don't know. Without a doubt, the markets are vulnerable for more selling pressure. Right now I am thinking it is too early to be a major top. You can still see triangle patterns that suggest complex correction behaviors. If those triangles get broke, we have bigger moves down coming. My gut feeling is, in the Nasdaq and SP, we are in a longer-term slow uptrend. A break of the daily triangle patterns simply push us down to lower end of this range. The Nasdaq has more of an expanding triangle to watch. The SP has a more horizontal support triangle low line.

For SP #F take a RTC and apply it from the weekly 2004 high to current action. It defines that range, issue that chart to a daily and add trendline analysis to this picture. Define the triangle. Add some Fibs', it defines the immediate possiblities without complicating it too much.

For the ND #F, you could do a similar work. Take the trendline from the Nov low to Dec low and extend. It might be more an expanding triangle pattern. You have supports approximately 162990 - 161800 area. Moves below that suggest lower ranges again.

Nasdaq is potentially the weakest right now, but there are some good stocks in it as well, that lead me to think you want to focus on them on cheaper prices... AMD, BRCM... if had more time could find some more.

If we stay contained somewhat, we have to anticipate buying as we come out more of this winter. I think energy, railroads, some biotech and drugs, precious metals, certain overseas, markets, (regional reconstruction projects and companies related to that industry, home building material providers), strong sectors also exist iron/steel, non-metal mining, mobile homes (strength is new), insurance accident/health (new stalking AET), restaurants may be (new too), surprisingly some airlines doing good.

We pullback nasty, we focus on some of these really good stocks. It isn't the end of world yet, or I don't think so. Be willing to take advantage of any really nasty pullback in a recently strong trending stock.

I don't use A/D as a primary tool. It is a good supportive tool. Because of its following, you have to respect it to some degree.

Will try to post some very simple charts later today to communicate better parameters I will be using to monitor this pullback.

Ben is going to stay close to home and go to Malone. He was admitted into a really good commerical music program, even got a little scholarship. He wants to be a Christian music professional. The kid's seems talented enought to succeed. If you or our daughter(s) are interested, his band and two others are doing a concert in March to raise money for helping kids in Kenya, Africa, get a free education.

Take care, Jim. Talk more later... marc

[MR]

Jim,

I posted a Weekly and Daily ND chart for you at this link.

[jims_id]

Hi Marc

Hi Marc!

Thanks for the link and the insight....valuable as always. I'm sure the rest of the readers of this thread appreciate all your efforts too!

Have a great weekend!

Jim

[MR]

Can I re-vote?