EW Corrections - an OEX study

[marginman]

AGET Applying Tech Analysis page T-27 "Most Elliott Traders make money during an impluse pattern and then loose it back during the corrective phase"

Are the corrections labeled by the EOD daily & weekly charts of the OEX providing clues for 2 day-2 week term position traders?

Weekly OEX is flat but with XTL blue after an ABC (zig-zag) simple correction following wave 5 down. T-27 syas: " An impluse pattern is always followed by a corrective action pattern". Despite this corrective action, is it still valid to have a weekly mob drawn from the previous w4 from the weekly targeting 740 by 11/28/03? would that coincide with wave 3 up on the weekly?

Daily underwent an ABC correction within w4, type one buy criterias all met along with confirming Stoch 8/07/03. OEX has since fumbled along its w5 path on 8/22/03 and PTI is still solid at 67. MOB target is 521 by 9/04. Why is the MOB target so much lower than the lowest Fib Ext of 0.62*W1= 553 (per T-35)? Would that coincide with w1 weekly?

What does AGET say for OEX over the next couple of weeks?

Thanks for reading and sharing.....

[marginman]

Here is the daily OEX

[MR]

Mike,

I haven't been close to the markets lately so maybe someone else can try to better answer your questions. I can point you toward previous "Trader's Outlook" posts.

click here to see weekly OEX, 4/23/03

click here to see weekly OEX, 7/31/03

click here to see Trader's Outlook daily OEX, 7/31/03 post

Current Trader's Outlook main page

Trader's Outlook Various Index archives

Basically I was pointing out a year ago a key MOB support, which has held so far and showed a possible weekly Wave 4 building. I still believe this is a respectable possiblity.

Sometimes I see things clearly and other times I am confused like everyone else. Basically my last weekly and daily post showed a stronger/weaker Directional Level (DL) which forces the market to define what it wants to do. My personal conviction is reflected in the chart. If the daily pushes through the upper end of the MOB it still remains bullish, but if it broke the lower end of the other daily MOB, the daily picture would have began to grow more cloudy. As you point out trading complex corrections are tricky. A push below this MOB would make a more complex correction.

I have been quoted several times in recent history as still remaining bullish. If the daily OEX pushed below that MOB support I honestly would have grown concerned how to manage a current net long bias. I also defined an "aggressive T1B" setup primarily because I see this as a bigger weekly Wave 3 or C wave in progress.

I would have to defer to Andy Bushak or some other expert as to a better read what AGET or Elliott Wave is saying. My general conviction is the weekly Wave 4 is still in progress to the upside. If holding long at the daily aggressive buy 7/31 post, I am still inclined to stay long for now.

Occasionally projections don't line up with expections. It is not clear why this happens. Projections are only guidelines. One technique is to add manual Fib calculations to build off projections and search out other possiblities.

[marginman]

Many Thanks Marc for your attention, may we quantify further.......

Why are u using alternate long term wave count? AGET T-85 describes conditions underwhich alternate long term count to be used and it is not readily obvious that alternate long term count applies............


Parameters Original count Longterm count
-------------------- ------------------ --------------------
Weekly:
wave completed w3 up w4 up
Setting up for more up on w3 w5 down Target MOB 724 by 11/28/03 334 by 4/23/04


Daily:
wave completed w5 up C up of ABC
setting up for down down
MOB 477 by 9/17/03 ????


Also from the original note, the daily on normal count has a low MOB for w5 up of just 520, Why is the MOB target so much lower than the lowest Fib Ext of 0.62*W1= 553 (per T-35)?

[marginman]

so much for being able to show data in a table, let me fiddle some more with it.....here is a restatement of the tabular data attempted in the previous message....

Original wave count shows Weekly in w3 up with a MOB target from previous w4 of 724 by 11/28/03, Daily completed w5 up setting up for type 2 sell to MOB target of 477 by 9/17/03

Alternate long wave count shows weekly w4 up complete, setting up for w5 down to MOB target of 334 by 4/23/04, Daily just completed C wave of an ABC correction setting up for ????

[MR]

Hi,

To be honest my reasoning is complex and based on a faulty memory of a bunch of weekly charts I first posted on "Trader's Outlook" over a year ago in some cases.

Any current daily index chart posted I develop to support my personal idea the trend up is still in progress. I want to build from those earlier weekly charts.
Early "Trader's Outlook" bottom picking chart for Weekly Nasdaq 100 Cash
Early "Trader's Outlook" Weekly SPX bottom pick idea
Early "Trader's Outlook" MOB bottom picking of Weekly NYSE Composite
Early "Trader's Outlook" Weekly bottom pick guess chart for OEX Weekly
Early bottom pick "Trader's Outlook" weekly $INDU chart
Dax Weekly "Trader's Outlook" post
bottom pick chart on Cac 40 weekly
Early FTSE 100 "Trader's Outlook" weekly bottom post idea
Bottom picking weekly Hang Seng "Trader's Outlook" post idea
Good weekly NIKKEI "Trader's Outlook" bottom pick idea
A more detailed $INDU PDF earlier this year file created for the Advanced GET User Group

You can find better, more detailed weekly and daily Index posts also at the Advanced GET User Group (located at 'File Sharing') ... there are too many to add here.... which provide more understanding:

click to to visit AGET User Group... scroll down and click on individual Index overviews

My very good friend, Tom Joseph, taught me years ago, "Marc, I don't want to argue wave counts or disagree, I just want to make money trading." My approach to using Advanced GET is based on that notion. I use all the tools available in AGET and focus more on defining quality risk/rewards within the various Elliott Wave possiblities.

The decision to use the alternate wave count may not be based on one particular chart or time frame. I sometimes look at a multitude of aggregate and sector indices, hundreds of charts, futures contracts, and so on. The more I compare and contrast the Elliott Wave possiblities, the stronger my convictions.

I may be wrong-- but I still hold market rallies are not over. Maybe I show charts that reflect my personal view. My knowledge of the markets and AGET still lead me to hold fast to this conviction, for now at least.

Part of my job is researching and developing new trading ideas. Sometimes those ideas are not totally compete or fully developed. Sometimes new ideas slip out in my comments. I am trying hard to find time to add this information ASAP to the AGET User Group site, and via the AGET Forum, but to be honest, it takes me a tremendous amount of time to put all this together into a usable format that makes sense to everyone. I will keep trying to improve in this.

My personal goal is to make this AGET forum and the AGET User Group better than any other source of information currently available, but that is a goal and there seems like so many works still in progress. Please keep your eyes alert to new posts as they may add insights, illuminating better answers to your good questions.

- - - - - - - - - - - - -
PS- As for the question below why is that MOB target lower than a Fib number? I honestly cannot answer that question. I really do not know. I will tell you I do not focus on why it goes where it does, but where it locates is what I care about.

The MOB is a more sophisticated algrithym than people realize. It may have Fibonacci relationships build into it, but having watched it a long time and under various circumstances, I don't personally believe the propretary MOB calculation is based just on Fib's as some believe. I can often find MOB's show up where there are no obvious explanation, and I have seen MOB's do anomolies where they display in the opposite location, only to gravitate to that unusual location as if like a magnet. It isn't logical, but it often works. Do manual fib calculations for that reason. Use combinations of techniques, such as identifying where is a MOB, what is the manual Fib Ext or Ret, where is an auto projections, so forth and then judge based on what all are identifying.

[MR]

Hi Again... i didn't see your last message until after I posted.

I don't have the AGET running at home tonight, so will try and find some time tomorrow and try to match your comments to a chart at work... I really don't know about the information you quote below because I have no chart to reference to tonight.

But to reiterate an earlier general comment.... intuitively, and respectfully, I may not be able to totally agree with your interpretations. For me those numbers you quoted could be good targets, but I also need to see the pattern develop, how the oscillators and other indicators evolve, what the cross-referenced time frames show with more information, other things.

I will admit to being incredibly busy lately and not watching closely market moves, but I will tell you I still am not yet willing to promote a daily Type 2 Sell idea, or to promote the idea a weekly W4 is completed or soon to be completed.

To kind of summarize my stand: last week a 'key' coworker asked what I thought about the markets and I told him I am still bullish [for now] and he proceeded to tell me he want short. He may have made money on that short because the market did go down for a day or two. It has since pushed higher. I told the coworker when I change my mind I will let him know.

Actually, what I really meant was when I can begin to argue with conviction some way to get short for the bigger picture, I will not hesitate. Currently I am working on the assumption if I were long from the major weekly lows, I am still staying with this trend up... I might be raising trailing stops, or using other money management ideas. But I am not willing to cover and go short yet.

[marginman]

Marc, you stated many things that resonate with me:

I too subscribe to "I don't want to argue wave counts or disagree, I just want to make money trading."

Allow me to share one similar comment made by a fellow member of our local trader group regarding market outlook "I do not care about being right, I just want to make money"..Our group has adopted this approach.

"it takes me a tremendous amount of time to put all this together into a usable format that makes sense to everyone. I will keep trying to improve in this." You are already doing a fantastic job. Has Mr. Chuck Thompson given you a raise yet?

My personal goal is to make this AGET forum and the AGET User Group better than any other source of information currently available ......This need not be a burden of one, We (the participants) too can aid in accomplishing this goal for Teaching us how to fish will only enhance the caliber of information exchange

The data I have reported in the below messages says that analysis of original wave count on the weekly points to a bullish target MOB of 724 for the current w3 which coincides with your conviction. The daily w5 mob is questionably low suggesting more upside. The alternate wave count is less clear.

I am not trying to make a case for either direction, I too simply wish to quantify high probability targets/risk so as to profit while learning.

Finally, the reason why you shall succeed with this forum or any OTHER trading concern is because you care and it shows.

P.S. What did you do to get so many convictions?

[MR]

.

Originally posted by marginman You are already doing a fantastic job. Has Mr. Chuck Thompson given you a raise yet?

Thank you very much for the encouragement.

P.S. What did you do to get so many convictions?

Clean living, work hard, and pray alot for divine intervention! But, seriously, it may be some intuitive pattern recognition stuff from years of watching an infinite number of markets, or just the countless hours of reviewing every possible AGET angle? I have great confidence in Advanced GET.