Is anyone still bullish?

[MR]

Just curious, are you bullish or bearish the markets right now?
People ask me, and I have been telling them biased up still.
But what is your take on the markets. I really would like to
share ideas with you. Thanks,

[roicapital]

Up or Down

I believe this market is very overbought fundamentally. But try as I might I can't find the technicals to support shorting yet. Mitch

[fabrizio]

Marc

I bet you know the kind of dissociate I am : I' bearish but my charts are evidently bullish.

The 103000 Mob as been just broken .....

The Tickets shows more long than shorts....







Afterall has been a goood day...

[fabrizio]

the baby I use to trade....

[Harndog]

Fabrizio: What front end are you using?

Fabrizio:
I like your front end trader manager, who is it?
I especially like its ability to generated money management metrics. Does it work with Interactive Brokers?
Harndog

[gspiker]

Just curious, are you bullish or bearish the markets right now?

All depends on your timeframe - don't it....

G

[MR]

Garth,

You are soooooooooooooooooooooooo right!

Thanks for the reminder... was a great day
for being long today on day-trade charts.

Tomorrow is another day.

[MR]

I am in a transition where recently there is limited time to monitor markets or analyze in great detail.

One reason why I started this thread was in hopes others with opinions and ideas could add their two cents on this topic.

Please feel free to jump in. Like any good teacher I want this to become a forum of good discourse, one of multiple frames of reference introducing unique ideas, where collectively we can all benefit. I will keep quiet and refrain from saying anything unless it is something to enhance the discussion in this tread.

We don't always have to be right in our suppositions. We don't all have to agree. So please don't be shy. Share your ideas. We really can learn from each other even if we end up being wrong. Lets get this interesting topic going some more....

thanks in advance,

[gspiker]

OK, here is one. From a daily view of the ES, 1012.50 is a critical level for today.

As the diag shows, price went up to the mob, and slightly through at nearly the time the Price and Time tool said we could see a reversal. This would be wave 5 up according to GET, and this all matches well with my other indicators (not shown) which have had me looking for a medium term down for the last two weeks.

Notice that yesterday we not only had a Type 2 sell signal, but that we formed a 2x top and broke a very major TL. Targeted projection is shown at the 100% fib. ext. level...if we can keep below 1012.50 today that means 987.15 is looking very possible.

According to my other indicators (not shown), we should see even lower than that, though it may take til mid/end of Oct to play out.

I shorted (a bunch of OEX puts really) a bit early at 9/17 close...rode out the next day and now am pretty happy. Waiting to see what the end of today brings...

[MR]

Good feedback, good job gspiker! So far, so good, right?! thanks!

[MR]

Re: Is anyone still bullish?

.

Originally posted by MarcRinehart Just curious, are you bullish or bearish the markets right now? People ask me, and I have been telling them biased up still. But what is your take on the markets. I really would like to share ideas with you. Thanks,

For a point of personal clarification-- at the very first post in this tread I made a incidental comment about being 'biased up.'
More specific: I am still long-term bullish, near-term entering neutral for October month, short-term entering neutral to a willingness to take some aggressive sell ideas if presented with an idea. This is the general framework in which my brain would be working if I had the time to actively analyze and set up trade ideas right now. (I don't want to bias anyone, but I have to be a little more specific because there are many people who monitor my posts. I feel a need to clarify on a flippantly made, yet potentially misinterpreted comment.)

[gspiker]

More specific: I am still long-term bullish, near-term entering neutral for October month, short-term entering neutral to a willingness to take some aggressive sell ideas if presented with an idea.

I agree with this, with the small difference that I am agressively bearish right now, and even when (if) the target down is reached, I will only take some profits off the table as I am expecting a few weeks worth of downwards pressure. Right now stop is fairly loose, once(if) target is reached I will tighten up a bit.

Interesting that the ellipse looks like it might close very near my projected price point for the spoos...

After this brief (in terms of days/weeks), if potentially strong, retracement is over I expect the markets to turn bullish again.

Today was nice...I was expecting the bulls to put up a tougher fight, as a reaction rally after 150 pt down day wouldn't have been surprising.


Garth

[fabrizio]

ONCE IN A WHILE NO CHART

Marc

I'v bored this BB so much with my charts that I do not want to add- by now- one more.

Let me post the figures at which I look each friday.

The Commitment of traders report of the 23/09 against what posted the 29/07/09

Little caveat: the first is on CME and S&P DERIVATIVES, the latter is of CBOT and YM DJIA on CBOT

I - since monthes- took my conclusions, supported by my charting....

THIS THE 23rd OF SEPT.:




AND THIS IS END OF JULY:

[gspiker]

It is not unusual, once a target level is hit to see a strong rebound from that level. This is why, even if I think we will still see lower, I take some profits near target and tighten stops.







Daily implies more down to come. The question is, can I double up on position and when. So I turn to lower interval charts to confirm daily direction and possible reentry.





Clearly, the false bar on the stoch on the 60 agree's this is just a retrace of a possible longer move. Elliott implies this MAY be a wave 4 up on 60...if so PTI says (at least at this time) that wave 5 SHOULD be heading our wave, and not be truncated.

Perhaps looking at a 15 minite stoch on the ES will allow us to fine tune entry even better on a cross down or a break of the
trend lines...

[MR]

Garth,

Just a simple idea to experiment with, see if it helps.... I told a friend I wanted to go short today 1 SMH and QQQ. We decided to take a chance and stay short overnight. Here is our logic:

Load up a Weekly QQQ chart. Apply a TJ's Web in 'auto' mode. Issue this chart to an hourly or 90 minute time. I decided to use the 'RA' area as a short-term directional level for this trade idea. I like the idea as long as it stays below the RA level.

It is not a fancy idea. It helps because there is limited time to monitor; I don't want to lose sleep over this. This technique provides a very simple stop placement idea which is all I really care about at this time-- it either works or we know where to take a lose and cover. This logic helps me reduce emotional involvement, so I tend to think clearer.

In this case we cross referenced the weekly directly to the hourly time to trade it. We did this because we wanted to be able to see the bigger picture and stay with it longer if it broke lower more. We saw a red XTL, we used the Ellipse study, calculating one from w2 to 3, then a second Ellipse calculation from the top to w3 bottom at the time. Other ideas... we applied a MOB off the 9/29 little pivot high, if it rallied we have a supporting resistance area to target just above the RA level. I looked at AGET Trade Profile and saw a red sell level near the RA level. There was also a little trendline resistance line from last two pivots we would use as an indication of either more weakness or a possible 'change-in-bias' building for that time frame.

This was only a very quick trade idea. It took a little guts, and I will probably regret it since there was some impulsiveness involved to stay overnight but it was only one contract each, and it was primarily for educational purposes. Tomorrow morning we could cover early for a loss, if needed, or could be willing to stay biased down short-term. It depends on how it trades.