Interesting Chart Patterns To Monitor In Coming Days...

[MR]

Look at VOD, Daily.... Apply MOB off intermediate w4 and even attempt a MOB off sub w 'iv' pivot. Is unorthodox, but trust me in this case. Apply Normal Ellipse from W2 to current W3 to help with timing. If interpreting this correctly, is setting up as a possible Type 1 buy setup. Caveat-- MOB and Normal Ellipse have to hold in this setup idea to work out.

[MR]

Scroll back in this thread (Posted: 03-30-2004 08:42 PM) to see the HDI, 15 minute chart with the following comments:



So far, so good....

[MR]

Here is an update to an orginal DPW-FRA daily Type 1 buy setup... I posted it almost a year ago in the German forum.
Scroll down to see orginal chart....

[pj909]

HI Marcus,
My analysis on HDI was pretty screwed up. Could you take a look at the charts (yours and mine) and comment. I used the alternate wave count (daily chart) because of the OSC behavior. It now looks like I should have stayed with the default wave count. Your 60 min chart seemed a much better way to view HDI.

[MR]

Hi pj,

Originally posted by pj909
....This low will penetrate the 200 dMA which should in turn cause more weakness in the stock....

You said the 200 dMA "will be" broken. How do you know for sure it will happen? Be careful saying what is going to happen in advance. Rather, focus more on identifying the possiblities, then develop the action plan how you would react to whatever actually happens.

Another thing, use the alternate wave counts carefully. In this case the original wave count make sense. The daily makes sense. (see below charts posted last week.)


The hourly 'big gap' action makes sense; it is indicative of wave 3 behavior. Once the hourly breaks the immediate hourly resistance, the daily shows more potential to push higher.

[MR]

continued....

I put the 15 minute HDI trade idea together based more on risk/reward.

In a real sense, I think I just got lucky on this one is all.

Then again, in another sense, an element of intuition might be applicable here. I have a very good 'feel' for HDI. I have posted it in the past at "Trader's Outlook" and have watched it's price movement behavior very closely for several years now. For some reason I just looked at the recent behavior and knew in my heart this was going higher. (how high I did not know, but I then focused on defining realistic risk rewards to play with. If they did not work out, I already had plan 'B' ready to act upon later once it happened.

I don't know if this all helps, but I truly hope something I said was useful. Forgive me, I am a little tired tonight....

Best wishes, Marc

[pj909]

Thanks for your insights.
I still have a problem identifying the type of gap. I assumed exhaustion gap not continuation. And I changed the standard count because of the divergence in the Oscillator. After having wave counts relabel so many times I guess I jumped the gun.

[MR]

When you changed the wave count to alternate long, did you also reference it to the 10/70 Oscillator? I think when I looked at that oscillator it qualifies on the daily as 1.40 to .90 setup. Means a Type 1 still. Not showing divergence either. Do you see the typical 3-4-5 oscillator divergence on the daily? I don't. It suggests we need more time for daily divergence to build still before we start to look more seriously for a longer-term major change-in-direction. Another thing, the monthly still has not tested the previous top. Those oscillators do not yet show divergence. It is technically correct your thinking we could have entered a time frame of profit-taking, maybe some more weakness, maybe even some more gap covering. But all of the higher time frames oscillators don't really show the kind of 3-4-5 divergences we look for when trying to identify a major top in this case. This is not a good Type 2 setup longer term yet.

Here is one sample, the monthly HDI sample....

[MR]

Here is the HDI daily with regular wave count and oscillators. See, no divergence here yet. Actually, they qualify as Type 1 oscillators too....

[MR]

Similar wave count, HDI daily using the alternating long wave count....

[pj909]

Actually I was looking at the divergence from last Aug, but I used the Short Term Elliott setting (instead of the Long Term) to get the count to match the Osc. Trying to hard to make it match my opinion instead of letting the chart tell me what it was.

[MR]

PJ,

Please don't feel bad... this has actually forced a very healthy discussion. Thanks for bringing it up. I would never have posted that specific 15 minute if you had not asked your questions. I am glad you did. It isn't a matter of being right or wrong in this case, but when we guess wrong, it is ok. We just have to take a couple days off, regroup, then go back at it with a new plan of attack. Remind me later and we can try to tackle this stock again.... This next time we will both pounce on it correctly together!!!

Take care, marc

[pj909]

Thanks for the encouragement. I had hoped it would provide an interesting discussion (for others as well). Maybe we'll catch this on the way down. I've already moved on to new trades with a smile on my face and a poem in my heart:

Give me the courage to pull the trigger when the market has changed;
Give me the strength to hold my ground when it hasn’t;
And give me the wisdom to know the difference!

[ragic]

On the HDI Daily chart, theres a nice divergence between A and C on the Elliott Trigger indicator. I find the ET a useful indicator to keep an eye on...

Also, note the volume peaks below A and C, buyers have moved in to push those lows higher and create a support level.

When I use the GET scanner for a T1, I often take into account the accumulation/distribution direction. If I'm looking for a Long, I like to see the A/D remain upward moving or horizontal-ish during the pullback, not downwards. (In the case of HDI, its in the wrong direction, so this might put me off )

(trying to post image)

[MR]

Nothing fancy, just something I noticed tonight....