Interesting Chart Patterns To Monitor In Coming Days...

[MR]

It depends on how you trade, longer or short-term. I am very interested in trying to define safer entries for short-term ideas, or places to add to existing positions in metals for longer-term positioning. With weakness at the end of last week, I think we are finally getting the pullback some of us can appreciate. We now monitor the next 2-3 weeks to better define timing and price entry ideas, if things develop as we would like to see. Eventually the higher futures prices, if they can stay sustained higher, will draw back up some of the stronger and even lagging weaker metal stocks. If I see anything more specific will try to share if it can help.

[MR]

Re: Hi Marc!

Hi Jim! Yes, you and many others have been wondering about this market. I don't want to say it has been almost minipulative type of behavior, but it certainly has been only for the most very aggressive, nimble and flexible traders. It most certainly is quick and nasty extreme sector rotational type of behavior. Let's relax this weekend and try to get a better handle on things later next week. I think Microsoft pulling back further their release of a new and improved windowing platform most certainly took the rug out of a lot of many in the tech sectors high expectations for impreoved performance this year. That might account for some of the Nasdaq weakness? It seems like the other segments of the economy can hang in there for now, even with high energy prices. If energy gets to $80 or more then I think we all better start scrambling to protect more of our assets near-term. Somehow we seem to be managing as an economy to keep things going positive for right now. Anyway,we can talk more next week. I will keep my ear close to the track-- so to speak-- in hopes I can pick up anything coming down the tracks. If I do, will share them here with you and our other friends.

Take care, and as we say in Indian Guides, "buddies forever!"

Marc

Originally posted by jims_id
Howdy again Marc:

As you know I've been skittish of the market for a while....I cut back substantially months ago (too early) but not entirely out yet (retained low double digit percentage of holdings).

How's this for a possible scenario though: I'm thinking we wash out here today, or maybe early next week. Maybe some good news will come out over the weekend that will encourage the bulls...who knows. Hard to believe the news can get a helluva lot worse (again, who knows though). Maybe we then get a lift into June. I think that may be the cutain call for a while. Hopefully we haven't already seen the top for the cycle.

Anyway, that's my wilda** guestimate, roadmap, what have you. I guess it's best to just be flexible in case the roadmap doesn't pan out.

Wish you the best of luck, my friend. Regards to Tom.

Jim

[dboile]

Trend

Re: Roger finding the trend of the market using VXF what is WMA and DPO?

[766456]

WMA = weighted Moving Average and DPO = Detrended Price Oscillator.

Based in price crossing the WMA you can see the up trending and down trending in the market.

Attached a screenshot to illustrate. Hope this helps

[MR]

If you wanted to get into things like metals, or energies, start monitoring the weekly charts to setup any future trade. They will give you a better perspective while this group pulls back. For what it is worth, NY metals have been notorious for profit-taking harshly, only to eventually recovering. Hence, I am inclined to be patient before buying into this weakness. The weekly charts will give you a better perspective.

[MR]

Here is an update on Apple (AAPL) done about an hour ago.

[jims_id]

Hi Marc!!

Hi Marc!

Looks like a gap fill on the qqqs this morning. Nasty business.

Regards,

Jim

[MR]

Jim, and other friends... I posted this earlier elsewhere.. sharing here with you and then adding a few more new comments...

Marc Rinehart Wednesday, May 17m 2006 9:57AM - Today is, in my opinion, a critical market day. Monitor to see if the early morning lows hold, or if the overall US and Nasdaq markets end even weaker, or if we end up in positive territory befor the end of today. Reason why I say this is because i think a break of today's lows could signify a bigger pullback in progress and is worthy of noting. Will update comments later today....

I think we all kind of figured last week we were due for a pullback. With today's break down at a key area, we now can say with greater clarity we are in a "bigger correction" mode. I am not rushing in with any new longer-term buy setup ideas quite yet, but rather would be interested in identifying aggressive day-trade Short setups for now.

[MR]

One more update...

Marc Rinehart Wed, May 17 2006, 11:34AM update-- Look for aggressive short-term Short setups and manage those new trades aggressively to protect quick profits. The break earlier of a key support means Sell setups will have better odds of success. The market is officially in defensive mode. If we get a lunch time little rally, anticipating more selling pressure will filter back into today's activity before the close.

[jims_id]

Hi Marc!!

Morning Marc:

A few days ago you posted: "I don't want to say it has been almost minipulative type of behavior, but it certainly has been only for the most very aggressive.....".

Where's the Plunge Protection Team when you need them?

Happy trading Marc.

Regards,

Jim

P.S. I wish to heck it would stop raining around this joint.

[MR]

Everything may still be under pressure today. Energy and metal corrections are still very vulnerable to more corrections if they break their key short term support parameters.

[MR]

Re: Hi Marc!!

Jim,

Someone just pointed out to me options expiration week on Wednesdays can add to tricky trading.

Yes, I will post a chart soon to give a visible illustration what could be going on. If energy weakens more from here, gets back to, for example lower $60's a barrel, will lead to a big rebound before end of month, is a quick guess???

Marc

PS- Yes on that rain thing... I been working outside in yard to get our house fixed up for Ben's graduation June 11th. Eleven years of projects need completed before then, rain or shine. You're welcome to come if you want. Tom might be there too.

Originally posted by jims_id
Morning Marc:

A few days ago you posted: "I don't want to say it has been almost minipulative type of behavior, but it certainly has been only for the most very aggressive.....".

Where's the Plunge Protection Team when you need them?

Happy trading Marc.

Regards,

Jim

P.S. I wish to heck it would stop raining around this joint.

[MR]

Jim,

Remember those charts I showed here a while back when you were concerned about the markets?
Here is an update on one of them. (ie, SP #F) It is very simple, but something worth tracking.
Hope it helps.

Marc

[jims_id]

Hi Marc

Marc:

Thanks for the invite. I've got one graduating myself this year, and some family are headed over for a little get together.

Here's the chart I'm focusing on....looks like we're at a critical level.

Regards,

Jim

[MR]

Hi again Jim!

Yeah, we got about a dozen graduations to go to ourselves. (If you want to see what Ben looks like, click here.)

Totally agree about this being a criticial area. Am kind of hedging we end up lower before it is over for today. If we end lower, we are in a bigger pullback before it is completed is guess.

Best wishes,

Marc