Interesting Chart Patterns To Monitor In Coming Days...

[MR]

Re: Who's in control

1- not quite. cross-reference to at a minimum one to two time frames higher than the time frame you wish to trade.
2- no. If you deviate from the basic rules, recognize there is more risk associated with it, hence, you may need to also make an adjustments in your money management to compensate for this higher risk.
4- not true. Yes, it is harder to trade time frames below hourly, but it is not because those time frames are inherently different than other times, it is just they are more dynamic, rapidly changing time frames. Hence, in my opinion, it takes more skill and a sharper mind to trade them consistantly. It is technically possible to trade them.

Originally posted by Ainsley
thanks for the answers fella's, I appreciate you time.

To summarize what is being said,

1 - Use the higher views to trade the day
2 - Use weighted averaging like an expert system for interpretation of which oscillators is running the show
3 - Understand your trading psychology ie day trader / position trader
4 - Views below 60 minute may well change in too many ways to be consistently predictable

[MR]

You might want to research and monitor
more closely the following for a possible
Type 1 buy setups building the few weeks:

$FVX (FV M4 or U4),

$TNX (TY M4 or U4),

$TYX (US M4 or U4).

[MR]

Let me clarify this post made earlier in May. For gaps to be covered, you need it to rally. So far this is the case. It looks like there should be more unwinding of Short positions. We still have a week before professionals start to leave for long weekend vactions. They have to have positions squared by then. Antiicpate a push higher now. The higher we go now, the better the odds we have to setup for some sort of a good risk/reward sell later on. That is the plan.

If day-trading today, Wed 19 MAY, the bias is up.

Originally posted by MR Posted: 05-10-2004 01:02 PM
If you see 'gaps' covered on daily time frame charts in the next week or two, consider monitoring for another wave of selling leading into Memorial Day long weekend holiday.

[MR]

For what it is worth, I closed all my paper trades today as my paper work is very close to being completed, and funds have been finally all transfered into a tradable account. Since I am real close to trading now with real money, it is time to start preparing psychologically with a clean slate. Here are left over, most recent trade results--
Losses: a couple breakeven, 52 cents, 84 cents, 1.02
Profits: 18 cents, 40 cents, 95 cents, 1.02, 2.07, 1.99, 1.94, 4.85, 2.21, 2.72, 3.67, 10.24

I am only saying this (above) because I did comment recently about trade ideas I was thinking about, and now I want you to know what I am doing, even if it is only paper trades. As of today those ideas are closed, and I am totally out, the slate has totally been closed and cleaned now. There still may be opportunities in those trades, but I want to get out and get ready to move on to new ideas.

I truly hope some of this stuff posted has been helpful to some people out here in eSignalCentral land.

I will continue to try and help out here-- if I can-- but now it is time to get real serious. I will chose any future words more carefully, wisely, judiciously.

[jims_id]

Hi Marc

Howdy Marc:

You probably don't remember me, but I have been studying Tom's techniques since about 1988, beginning with his fax service which I believe began about that year. I used to stop over at the Akron office many times to chat with you and Tom, and I miss not being in touch with all of the people who worked in the Akron office.

Just wanted you to know that I am still using the EOD module, and I would feel totally naked in these markets without it (in fact, I think I feel like a sort of a heroin addict..without a daily fix from Tom's studies I would feel like I'm working with both hands tied behind my back).

Just wanted to say that I have been monitoring your posts, and find them extremely useful and full of insight. Good luck in your trading endeavors. If you see Tom and Barb in your travels, please give them my best regards.

Jim McGowan

[MR]

Jim,

While I cannot recall in detail what your face looks like, I absolutely remember you! Tom and I worked hand-in-hand on that hotline/fax service, before Advanced GET was a product. It is where I really learned this craft.

You know, wonderful people like yourself-- our original customer base-- always were a very special, classy, seasoned breed of professionals. You were more like close friends. I will never forget, for example, the day we received an order for AGET from OPEC headquarters in Vienna. We knew then we were on track with Advanced GET work.

Forgive me for daydreaming... but seeing your post started to remind me of the "glory" days and the great fun we had with our top-quality customers.

Again, GREAT to hear from you! Your post reinforces what I have always suspected-- quite a few people come incognito to eSignalCentral to review AGET material, then slip out quietly to return to work.

I really miss you guys! Will forward your regards next time I see Tom. (Our home is only 5 minutes away.)

Let's keep in touch. If you private message me I can give you an email address.

Sincerely, an old friend, Marc Rinehart

[MR]

News headlines quote today....

"Bush Nixes Reserve Release"

"President says won't play politics with strategic petroleum release."

"Gas prices: Won't deter tourism"

- - - - - - - - -
In theory G.W. is correct, but in reality, if he really wants to be re-elected, he could play the game Bill Clinton's did. At the time it gained voter sympathy.

G.W. should be willing to announce he is willing to open up the oil and natural spickets in Louisiana, Texas, Wyoming and California if need be.

Remember what happened in the 70's when we had sudden high energy prices become a political issue... remember how quickly the voters turned on George Sr after the Gulf War and recession set in.

Politics and people are fickle. Energy prices do not yet appear to be topping out quite yet. Energy futures traders are most probably still trying to find ways to buy into pullbacks, to hedge their positions by staying net long for the immediate future.

Only an educated guess, but charts still suggest respect for the current uptrend pattern.

Gas prices may not detrimental yet, but they are well on their way to becoming so, only 5 months away from national elections.

And, if you own airline stocks, if you read about CAL losing $700 million because of high airline fuel cost, you will notice the direct correlation between high energy prices and lower airline stock prices. It slowly is filtering negatively into the world economy.
- - - - - - - - - -


(From a Press Release back in September 24, 2000)

US Senator Charles E. Schumer, who originated the call to release oil from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over a year ago, today announced that President Clinton's decision to release 30 million barrels of oil from the SPR should significantly lower home heating oil costs this winter. Schumer repeatedly lobbied President Clinton, Energy Secretary Bill Richardson and Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers to tap into the SPR to help avert an economic crisis for New York and the nation as a whole.

"President Clinton's decision to release 30 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will lower home heating oil costs and prevent many New Yorkers from having to choose between heating their homes and paying for basic necessities like food and clothing. Those who label the President's decision 'election year politics' either do not understand the severity of this crisis or simply don't care," Senator Schumer said.

With the cost of oil recently exceeding $37 per barrel, New Yorkers faced prices as high as $2.48 per gallon to heat their homes this winter, nearly double last winter's average price of $1.31 per gallon. The release of 30 million barrels of oil from the SPR could reduce prices by as much as $7 per gallon, saving consumers hundreds of dollars. In addition to its immediate impact upon prices, releasing oil from the SPR before October 1 provides enough time to process, refine and deliver the oil to consumers before the onslaught of winter.

"Bill Clinton and Al Gore deserve credit for standing up to the oil industry, facing down OPEC, and protecting our economy. New Yorkers were already hit with soaring electricity bills this summer. Anyone who has ever had to dig deep into their pockets to pay for heating oil, gas or electricity can appreciate this decision," Senator Schumer added.

[gspiker]

Hi Marc,

I truly hope some of this stuff posted has been helpful to some people out here in eSignalCentral land.

Thanks for all your postings. It's always interesting to read your posts.

Are you only using the AGET tools, or will you/are you using other tools as well?

Best of luck in your live trading!

Garth

[MR]

Hi Garth,

Forgive me for taking so long to get back to you. I also have a few PM's to answer today, as well. (So to you others, forgive me for not responding quickly, but will try to find time later today.)

Thanks for you kind words. They are appreciated. I was raised on the notion we were all put on this earth to help each other out, and that it is "better to give than receive." If what little I know and share helps others, I am grateful to be of service to others.

To be honest, I don't think I can totally answer honestly this last question at this time. Let me just say, probably 90% of what I do is based one way or another on some form of Advanced GET logic, techniques, methodologies.

I am not the sharpest tool in the shed when it comes to mathematics, so much of the EFS stuff is over my head.

I tend to just apply basic technical analysis we all should know, with AGET knowledge, then add fundamental knowledge accumulated over the years.

I think though, where my real strength comes from is being able to think abstractly, combining basic technical analysis knowledge with macro and micro fundamental analysis. For example, I have studied human psychology, sociology, history, with a passion since a young child, trying figure out what motivates people to do what they do. I combine this with a general understanding of business, economics and politics. When I look at charts I just know intuitively how people are going to act or react under differing circumstances.

The rest is just like playing chess, trying to visualize in advance the best possiblities what could happen, and then develop a realistic strategy to act or react accordingly.

I wish I could be more specific...

Thanks again for your comments. I really enjoyed meeting you back in December, You are a very fine person.

Sincerely, your friend,

Marc

Originally posted by gspiker
Hi Marc,

Thanks for all your postings. It's always interesting to read your posts.

Are you only using the AGET tools, or will you/are you using other tools as well?

Best of luck in your live trading!

Garth

[MR]

For what it is worth, for the first time in a while, I actually found a few buy setups today. It fits with my previous comments about anticipating more Short covering going into a long US Memorial Day weekend.

[MR]

LLY daily... possible swing trade setting up?

[MR]

Following up on earlier LLY comment...

LLY seems to have clear hard pivot reversal patterns. Once it pivots, it doesn't always wait around. I think it wants to attempt another quick rally to previous high, around 77?

If conservative trader you may have missed the low-risk chance. One idea is to apply a Normal Ellipse from 3/25 and 5/7 pivots. When it arrives, if there has been a pullback and a better price to enter, the Ellipse study might give you some help.

If aggressive trader, not sure what to say, except go to shorter time frames, see if you can frame up a risk/reward entry idea to your liking.

[MR]

Well, unless you are desperate for trading action, now is a good time to pack up and head away to the Hampton's, Hilton Head, or home base for a nice long weekend of rest, relaxation and reflection. Now would be a good time to get caught up with paperwork, emails, and such.

If you don't hear from me for a few days, best wishes to you all! May you all have a very special weekend.

For those of you in the USA, remember to take time to reflect this Memorial Day weekend on those who gave their lives so we could stay free people all these years. Remember to thank the Lord for what you have. While we are not a perfect country, we still are better than most all the alternatives out there.

[MR]

We all say stupid things; I didn't graduate summa *** dumme for nothing. Can I take back what I said below in the earlier post?

Originally posted by MR; Posted: 05-10-2004 12:27 PM
Anticipating US Dollar to be higher by end of summer. Starting to monitor for a safe Long entry, next good pullback (basis June contract). Decline below 9000 forced to stand aside and rethink trade logic.

I was somewhat correct. We got our good pullback, but the last three days DXM4 traded below 9000 and this morning DXM4 tested the 50% retracement number (calulated using 2/18 low to 5/14 high.) It is testing small MOB.

We are now forced to rethink how to safely trade this next?

With benefit of additional price action, the alternate Long Wave count creates another picture I had not clearly seen. It is starting to look more like it is not a far-fetched idea.

I knew the previous DX EW major 1-2-3 wave count was vulnerable because at the time W1 and W4 could easily overlap, but I didn't think DX would correct so quickly, so hard.

It is better than a 50-50 proposition US Dollar should attempt a bounce sometime in mid to later June once hitting either 50-62% (50% = 9997; 62% = 8801)

But be aware, the Euro has a similar alternative Long wave count. The Euro seems to also have less resistance.

When trying to identify trade ideas for these currencies in the summer, you may want to factor higher risks associated with it.

One thing I do when such a market condition develops, is to shift normal buy/sell entries to different levels. For example, where I might normally buy and then place a stop below, I now place the buy order at the lower stop loss area, and allow for a new lower stop loss. Or, if there is clearly a stronger support lower, I might shift the entry to that stronger area or just wait instead of jumping in to see if it is hit. It is a way of compensating for higher risks associated with current market conditions.

I entry a more conservative mode.

Just guessing out loud, but some time after the June currencies go off the board, probably mid-June but before July 4th, we can try to focus on identifying a big counter swing move up in the US Dollar, down in the Euro.

If you find a winning trade at that time, just don't fall in love with it. Keep tight reins on a winning trade. I can still see some bigger swings this summer as the market tries to figure out Fed major policy changes, precious metals continuing to unwind, potential higher energy costs, war, and other concerns such as coming fall US election.

I apologize for not seeing this earlier.

[MR]

So far, a "Zig-Zag" pattern has developed exactly as anticipated. It looks like there might still be some 'zip' on the zag part of the zig-zag. (Means if the last lag of this correction does not stop soon, we could have the makings of a bigger Wave 3 building? Mentioning only as it is a possiblity to prepare for.)

To review basic correction patterns in Elliott Wave theory, click here on this link.

Originally posted by MR
July Soybeans acting funny. Is it working on an A-B-C zig-zag?