Interesting Chart Patterns To Monitor In Coming Days...

[MR]

It wasn't all bad lately. Here is a follow-up on IMO,
a previous post that turned out ok....

[MR]

Here is a follow-up on CAKE, posted originally back on 6/30/04.
It ended up developing into a three wave "A-B-C" correction (A and C = 1.00).
Bottomline: it had a "tradable" Type 1 Sell in the 'C' Wave rally.
For now, it is "Make-Or-Break" shortly, or the next rally will take out the
42.00 area next time, and the T1Sell odds will run out....

[MR]

This is all the time I have for some updates right now. I hope this helpful to someone out there. Best wishes to you all, marc

[Catano]

thanks marc, very good job.

Gruß Catano

[Catano]

thanks marc, very good job.

Gruß Catano

[marginman]

question on CY update

Marc...Great stuff...I noted on the CY update, u had drawn the a resistance downtrendline from the top of w2 to where the ellipse came in , this trendline further helped to confirm the end of advance of the w4 retracement as shown bellow. My question is why does the trendline cross price action during the first two weeks in April, classical references (if there is such a thing) teach to draw down trendline connecting the highs of price action and not to cross price action or go below price action....Could you clarify why you drew it through and below April price action?

Thanks, Dean

[MR]

Hello Dean,

That trendline shown in the earlier CY chart is something Andy Bushak taught me a long time ago. It is not a traditional trendline, but something I call a "Wave 4 Channel trendline." Not real sure what the official name is, but it basically is where you have a Wave 4 profit-taking action and the Wave 4 Channels are calculating. At some point when the price gets close to or intersects the particular channel, that W4 Channel stops calculating. Andy discovered quite often if you were to draw a trendline from Wave 2 and extend it beyond the center of that particular W4 Channel (where it ends), it can still extend the functionality of that Wave 4 Channel. You really should only draw one of these trendlines within the immediate action or it slowly loses its value.

I did another CY chart (below) to show you a combination of a traditional trendline analysis. The bigger blue line is the Wave 4 Channel line drawn at the time using the Blue W4 Channel line. (The W4 Channels disappear once W5 is labelled.)

Use these W2 Channel trendlines when a existing quality T1 setup exists, where other AGET tools are also supporting the strength behind a particular T1 resistance/support target area.

You can add traditional trendline analysis. This is just a unique AGET technique for helping with Type 1 setups.

Take care, nice seeing your name again!

Marc

[MR]

Sure was nice to finally have a positive day in the market!

[MR]

Could this be the 'hint of stronger profit-taking' in the futures/spot energy complex markets I have been monitoring for?

Too early to tell for sure, but would make me a happy camper if it were.

PS- I think the CRB index is close to selling off more... will be watching it too. It is one of the things people watch for potential inflation direction. (less fear of inflation, less need to continue to raise interest rates in coming months.)

[MR]

Hi Friends,

Just to give you a little follow up on what has been going on lately....

Lately, it has been a tough. A couple months ago I finally could trade
but, unfortunately, only could Buy, not go Short. (working at remedying this.)

Bottomline: I am down about $1,500 after two months of 'playing around.'
Considering everything, I feel real lucky to have gotten the "trading bug"
out of my system with only minimal damage. Now it is time to get down to business!

I have a small $5,000 investment in USPIX, a mutual fund my money manager friend
recommended. He said if interested in Shorting this was one way. I consider it a
small insurance policy on the market, just in case.



Mostly wanted to update, explain my frustration at not being able to go Short.

The past couple months I wanted to Sell more than Buy. For example,
my observations posted 6/14/04 on the Semiconductor sector. (See Below)
I could only watch it go down without participating.

But such is the life of a trader....

Someday we will be able to Buy again, right!?
"Maybe" soon??? (see, smiling again!)
Until then, hope you all are doing better than me.

Sincerely, you eternal optimist friend, Marc

[jims_id]

Hi Marc

Mega congrats on you calls over the past several months.

You may want to check out these funds too:

RYURX (Rydex inverse S&P)
RYTPX (Rydex double inverse S&P)
RYAIX (Rydex inverse Nasdaq 100)
RYVNX (Rydex double inverse Nasdaq 100)

And just in case you get bullish again:

RYTNX (Rydex double S&P)
RYVYX (Rydex double Nas 100)

Best regards.

Jim

[MR]

Jim! ! !

I was just putting together an update for you... was going to ask if you were out there in cyberspace, and then I saw your last post.

First, (See Below) it doesn't look like the 5.80 to 6.00 30-yr Treasury target we talked about 6/3/04 is going to be hit. We seem to be setting up for a more secure rate range, which is ok, too. Borrowing costs shouldn't escalate too much for now.

Second, thanks for the mutual fund symbols. I don't know why I never even thought about it until recently. It would have been great fun to play with them earlier this summer! Will setup and track them for another future opportunity. (For what it is worth-- longer-term, I find weekly mutual fund charts very helpful, daily's are confusing.)

Again, great to see you again! God bless, hope all is well with you and your family!

Take care, Marc


PS-- Jim, you have done a pretty good job yourself with your good calls here the past few months. Matter of fact, if it wasn't for our previous discourse a while back, I honestly don't think I would have as much good to update! Your good comments at the time really helped clarify the topic. Thanks for your sharing earlier. I think it really helped me and others here.

[MR]

Here is another update, previous Soybeans 'Zig-Zag' comments with follow-up work, is for educational help only.....

[gspiker]

Weekly ES showing the channel lines I mentioned early. Still holding.

[MR]

I honestly thought about taking this aggressive Type 1 Buy setup for a quick trade,
but missed the low-risk, best risk/reward entry.... will follow up later.

(Aggressive means not all the conditions support the idea... hence, higher risk, you protect
quicker if no immediate follow-through, do a smaller postion than normal.)