Interesting Chart Patterns To Monitor In Coming Days...

[gspiker]

Hi Marc and PJ,

Is it Darn Good trend Line?

Good guess ;-). Really it is Dynamic Gann Lines. If you are interested in learning a wee bit more, so here:

http://dgl.topcities.com/

If you are interested in learning a lot more join the group (small one time fee) and you can also download the DGL.efs from there.

It's not my site...and I don't get paid for sending people there or having them sign up. But it is pretty interesting stuff.

Garth

[marginman]

No I am the epicenter of the global energy industry in Houston, TX

[MR]

Hi Dean,

Been looking at COP and CVX. Thinking about your question some more.

Hard to put into words... both are still attractive near to long-term. COP might just be leading the ways in profit-taking is all?

From a pattern-matching look, I wouldn't say CVX is more bullish, per say, but it does seem to be a little more stable lately in its price movement. The negative, it still is more expensive.

It looks like COP should retrace some more before it returns to its weekly uptrend behavior. Bottomline, I still like Conoco/Phillips. It has slightly more bullish pattern because it took out its 2000 high, while CVX still has not taken out its 1999 high.

Do these comments mix with your ideas? Curious what you think too.

Take care,

Marc

PS-- A very minor thing. Could someone check the daily/weekly COP, 9/3/99, for a possible bad tick? Thanks.

Originally posted by marginman
staying with this theme on Oil producers stocks, can you comment on CVX versus COP, two stocks you mentioned, both have come off their highs but CVX has stayed above recent pivot low of 7/27/04 while COP has broken down below its 7/27 low and has in fact retraced 25% of its weekly w3 with recent sell off..Does CVX show more bullish trend than COP?

[marginman]

Hi Marc...COP looks more bullish than CVX midterm and vice versa short term. This industry saw intense consolidation in 1998-2001 period making it hard to assess just whose price action you are reading back then. In the case of COP, was it Conoco or was it Phillips 's price action..

I would ask our resident XTL continuation trader, Mr. Housman if he would take COP on an XTL continuation sell on the open today?

[PRH]

COP is not a continuation XTL setup today. Weekly and Daily trend are up, only the hourly chart shows some weakness.

PRH

[marginman]

Philippe,

COP Daily chart shows:

Price < 50 day SMA
XTL red over the last 6 consecutive trading sessions
Stoch cross on 8/04/04
MACD cross on 8/3/04

why does COP daily trend look up?

[MR]

Be it ever so humble, there is no place like.... an up day in the stock market on a Monday!

... now if we can only stretch it out two days in a row... then I will get more excited.

(PS-- I would really like to see the stock market rally more this week. It would help build better 'scenarios' for later setups....)

[MR]

ok... Dean, just for sake of discussion, a 'quick look' idea... how about we paper trade buy COP today (early morning), stop loss below 8/11/04 pivot low, 76.50 first target for moving stop up to at least breakeven? (It is not an XTL, just an aggressive risk/reward only)

[MR]

Dean,

I am not an oil man expert, so could you correct me if what I say is incorrect....

I think Natural Gas is the only energy which is currently genuinely vulnerable to a downtrend in price (for now). Therefore, I would avoid buying stocks which specialize in just natural gas?

Mostly bringin it up for discussion, so someone with more experience can discuss the ideas, right or wrong.

Marc

[MR]

Dean,

Thanks for your insight on COP. It is helpful information to know. I would never have thought of how a merger could affect price movement interpretation. Is a good point.

Marc

Originally posted by marginman
Hi Marc...COP looks more bullish than CVX midterm and vice versa short term. This industry saw intense consolidation in 1998-2001 period making it hard to assess just whose price action you are reading back then. In the case of COP, was it Conoco or was it Phillips 's price action..

I would ask our resident XTL continuation trader, Mr. Housman if he would take COP on an XTL continuation sell on the open today?

[MR]

Dean,

I forgot to say this, but I also was thinking, as a paper-trading discussion idea to go along with COP post earlier, wanted to buy CVX too... only stop is below 94.22, 1st target for moving stop to at least breakeven is 98. real target is 100. Can only buy a little of this is all because of expensive price.... again, mostly commenting for tracking purposes, and to continue discussion on this later.... marc

[MR]

.... bet someone out there a dollar the stock markets hold up today, and continue to push slowly higher today.

(PS-- I am not a gambler, just a "calculated risk-taker," so that bet comment is rhetorical only.)

[jims_id]

Hi Marc

Howdy Marc!

Would appreciate your insight on this idea (however half-baked it might seem). What would you say the odds are that we just completed a big wave A down in the markets, and are now heading up in a B wave? With the republican convention looming in a little over a week and a potentially seasonally favorable period following labor day, could we be in store for and a-b-c advance?

Best regards,

Jim

P.S. ditto Bush re-election

[marginman]

Ok...

Marc, yes gas has slipped. Inventories typically build this time of year through Nov and start dropping again as winter demand picks up. I typically look for attractive long entries Oct time frame. Recent surge in crude has left Nat Gas in its wake starting in Jul 04, Nat Gas versus crude is uncharcateristically weak so economics exist to bring price support even earlier should crude continue prolonged strength. APA, NBL have exposure to Nat Gas.


On COP: Daily trend is down, XTL red, if u draw RTC on daily, u see current upper channel bound is 74.55.

COP short term trade I was alluding to is to fine tune an entry for a continuation XTL sell, short it at say 74.55 upper RTC bound or 75.12 representing 38% retrace of hourly w3. Plz refresh my memory if continuation XTL sell is what AGET community calls this setup?

COP longer term trade set up is XTL continuation Buy when it breaks the upper bound of RTC, currently at 74.55, again tell me if continuation XTL buy is what AGET community calls this setup?

thanks Dean

[MR]

I am looking to buy a stock for a $1 to $3 potential, 2-3 week time frame. Because time is of the essence, and I don't have time to systematically scan for ideas, could someone out there help save some time.

Tell me a few of your stock picks.

Thanks...

(PS-- Promise to get back with you later today Jim and Dean....)