Interesting Chart Patterns To Monitor In Coming Days...

[MR]

Philippe was also right about this one.... the hourly was showing weakness... now following through on it.

Originally posted by P.Housmans
COP is not a continuation XTL setup today. Weekly and Daily trend are up, only the hourly chart shows some weakness.

PRH

[MR]

Dean,

My pretend paper trade ideas on COP and CVX were wrong... but my earlier comments on the two stocks were somewhat correct... longer-term they are ok.... It just looks like with today's weakness in that sector the short-term profit-taking wants to continue??? ... If I would have just kept my mouth shut with impulsive hypothetical ideas....

Originally posted by MR
Hi Dean,

Been looking at COP and CVX. Thinking about your question some more.

Hard to put into words... both are still attractive near to long-term. COP might just be leading the ways in profit-taking is all?

From a pattern-matching look, I wouldn't say CVX is more bullish, per say, but it does seem to be a little more stable lately in its price movement. The negative, it still is more expensive.

It looks like COP should retrace some more before it returns to its weekly uptrend behavior. Bottomline, I still like Conoco/Phillips. It has slightly more bullish pattern because it took out its 2000 high, while CVX still has not taken out its 1999 high.

Do these comments mix with your ideas? Curious what you think too.

Take care,

Marc

PS-- A very minor thing. Could someone check the daily/weekly COP, 9/3/99, for a possible bad tick? Thanks.

[PRH]

Following up on Dec Corn. We have a possible new shorting opportunity as shown: wave 4 retracement target and MOB at 247, and Fib retracement target at 244. The hourly chart shows a double bottom and a GAP in the low 230's area. I suspect that the pattern on the Daily is a wave 4 ABC with substructure shown on the hourly chart. I would not be surprised if the overnight a/c/e dec corn would trade down already. All of the above is opinion only, not advice. Trade at your own risk. Trading is risky etc the usual caveats. PRH

[PRH]

Here is what I am looking at for the Dec Wheat, monitoring for a new short entry... PRH

[PRH]

Update on Lumber: Limit up today
Tomorrow: expanded limit (15$) and I expect another limit up day. Good if you carry a long position. PRH

[PRH]

I will stick my neck out on XTL continuation trades in stocks. Here are my selections from a search: Long SFNT (on a buy stop over the highs) and short TSO (sell stop under low) with appropriate risk control. See what happens...

[MR]

Philippe,

Very good job my friend, very good job!

Marc

PS- How do you look at Euro and currencies, basis our last conversation? Euro up more here? Also, what is your handle on Bonds lately? Looking interesting, you think? You still liking Silver and HG Copper? Cotton and OJ, Sugar, Lean Hogs... same impressions as before?

[PRH]

Marc

Thank you for the kind words. You and the staff at Trading Techniques taught me well.

On the Euro and currencies and bonds, OJ, silver, cotton, hogs, etc I have not formulated an opinion or an analysis. These markets are changing and I have not detected any low risk setups yet. OJ continues in its bear market, although somewhat less bearish than before. We may see a classic TJ XTL fill the gap selling (2/3 of the gaps fill).

Bonds and NY markets: I do not trade them (anymore).
Currencies: Long term I like to see dollar strength but for now the euro is not heading down, more sideways but eventually down.

The lean hogs: bias to downside. Pork bellies: definitely biased to the downside. This one is a very choppy market.

In short, I did not find a good opportunity in the markets listed. Every evening I run a few search scans on the End of Day Adv Get program and the "active" ones are the grains (short), lumber (long), bellies (short) and nasdaq (short), and all of course subject to closing positions due to reaching stop, closing out target or profit target. Of course you are aware of my interest in the lumber market. It trends very well and turns on a dime. As long as one can stay in sync with it and apply the AdvGet tools, it seems to work.

We may see some limited risk defined setup in the meat complex, esp. lean hogs very soon.

We will see what happens with the 2 stock selections. They seemed to be the most obvious results from an XTL Continuation search on daily bars.

Best regards,

Philippe

[MR]

Philippe,

The US stock market holding up three days in a row! (so far) Wow, can you believe it! Looks like this is going to be a good week.

Hey, I was trying to remember just now.... how long have you been using Advanced GET to trade futures markets? It has been a long time, hasn't it? Didn't you tell me once you were one of our original customers?

Don't you just love futures trading. There is absolutely nothing like it.

Take care, hope everything is going well with you and the family!

Best wishes and regards,

Marc

[MR]

noon report today for SP, ND, NQ,$INDU, $XMI, $UTIL, $COMPQ, $RUT, $VLE, $OEX, $NYA, $DAXI, etc...

Prices moving up in a slow and steady manner today. Nothing dynamic, but ideal behavior for now.

[marginman]

on 8/16/04 10:00 AM CST

On COP: Daily trend is down, XTL red, if u draw RTC on daily, u see current upper channel bound is 74.55.

COP short term trade I was alluding to is to fine tune an entry for a continuation XTL sell, short it at say 74.55 upper RTC bound or 75.12 representing 38% retrace of hourly w3. Plz refresh my memory if continuation XTL sell is what AGET community calls this setup?

COP longer term trade set up is XTL continuation Buy when it breaks the upper bound of RTC, currently at 74.55, again tell me if continuation XTL buy is what AGET community calls this setup?

see below COP 60 min chart for short term XTL contination sell, plz refresh my memory if continuation XTL sell is what AGET community calls this setup? If not then why not?



see below COP daily chart for longer term XTL contination buy setup, again tell me if continuation XTL buy is what AGET community calls this setup?



Thanks, Dean

[MR]

Dean, I cannot speak for others, but I think you will end up being correct. The RTC you are using may be broken at some point, but it still could evolve as you anticipate even without the RTC to help you here. The stronger support, I think, is located below the current price.

[MR]

A "relief rally" in stock market indices the last few days? I don't know, but am relieved to see it... wheeeeew. Nice to see...

[MR]

Sometimes I try too hard to be helpful and end up goofing up....
Here is an example... If I didn't chickened out on FE....
maybe I could have better helped someone? (see below)

[MR]

Today we discuss IPO's.

Reading MarketWatch this morning there is this clip in the news, "Google Prices Shares at $85."



I strongly suspect investors buying into the early stages of this IPO will eventually be disappointing to some... if they don't take early profits.

Don't get me wrong. I love Google. Use it a lot. Think it has a great future.

But take a look at Pixar, another stock I have followed for years, which I also loved back in 1996 when it became an IPO.

Pixar opened at around $40. When the price could not be taken higher, it began to trend down until it finally later established a bottom around $12.
Eventually it showed some life when it went up to $65. Boy there sure was a lot of pain along the way. It took real patience and confidence if you owned the stock at that time.



The point of all this-- to make money in the markets you have to sometimes try to think differently then others. Back in 1984, when taking an undergraduate Finance course on investments, I was taught about "Contrarian" analysis.

The Contrarian Philosophy is to act contrary to the conventional wisdom in stock investing at any particular time. When others are selling, contrarians buy! When others are buying, contrarians are selling!

Nowadays they call it, "thinking outside the box," meaning don't try to think like everyone else, try to imagine the different possibilities as well.

Google has a good product. It may very well have a great future, but at what price do you buy into its success?

Back in 1996, I really liked Pixar. I talked one of my best friends into buying it near the bottom at $16 for his retirement account. I told him to file it away and really hold the stock long time. Someday he would be rewarded. I still feel that way. I still wouldn't sell the stock.

Mark my words, Steven Jobs-- one of the founders of Apple Computer and the guy behind Pixar-- is someday going to go down in business books as one of our generations next Henry Ford.



Can anyone tell me the name of the guys who run Google?

I will admit, I don't know Googles finances or product line as well as Pixar's. But, I intuitively am hesitant to buy it at the IPO introductory price.

Watch Google. Maybe it trades higher? Maybe people make some money off it initially. Whatever happens I truly wish them well.

But if it goes down after this initial public offering, at some point will one of you guys out here call me someday and tell me when when you think the stock has bottomed? I might be interested then.

At $85 or higher hard-earned bucks, I will gladly let someone else buy it and take the higher risks associated with this IPO. Rather, I would be more interested in taking my money and buying instead some more Pixar.