Interesting Chart Patterns To Monitor In Coming Days...

[PRH]

One can not fail to notice the striking similarity of the current bull run in KC Wheat with the roaring bull market of 1996... Check it out, if the similarity holds, we could see much more upside action. The usual disclaimers apply. Take care, PRH

MR - as always, I enjoy your posts.

[MR]

Phillip,

My long lost friend! Thanks for sharing here. Interesting. It has a better pattern than Chicago Wheat. I like your chart and will be monitoring closely.

Hey take care, hope to talk to you soon.

Marc

PS- We are going back to upper Ontario side of Lake Superior this summer. Why don't you sail your boat over and we can introduce family and my in-laws who are coming. My father-in-law is a retired MD who specialized in your field, so you guys would have much in talk about.

[MR]

Posted earlier elsewhere, sharing with my AGET friends....

Marc Rinehart 2:05 AM, Tuesday, 11 April 2006 -

"Some justifications for weakness in the overall market the last few days might be a concern about the return of higher energy prices, but also two major religious holidays coming up later this week could be causing some additional weakness as many market participants prepare to be away. Passover starts Thursday evening and Good Friday the market is closed. A lot of market participants will not be available later this week to trade. I can see more hedging, additional profit-taking filtering into our US overall market."

More profit-taking coming into play right now is not an unrealistic assumption rignt now. I got forced out of the rest of my existing trades and am now 100% cash waiting for a future opportunities. Since I cannot day trade short my account, most probably will take rest of this week off and wait for new trades next week.

[MR]

Posted earlier elsewhere, sharing with my AGET friends....

Marc Rinehart 1:59 PM, Monday, 17 April 2006-- NY Oil over $70 today a concern; NY Unleaded Gas appears strong trend in progress as well. Gold and silver trend up people can live with, but copper prices typically indicate a heated economy which means more interest rate increases could be in the cards, a fear for bigger investors. To make things more confusing, currencies moving powerfully today. What is that suggesting? US stock market appearing a little more defensive today.

[MR]

Posted earlier elsewhere, sharing with my AGET friends....

Marc Rinehart 1:11 PM, Tuesday, 18 April 2006-- For what it is worth, I wanted to share an observation....

I noticed last summer when energy prices continued to trend moved people got worried about higher energy prices leading to inflation or ultimately slowing down the economy... but the market acted well for a period of time and continued to work higher, primarily because mutual fund money might have been moving out of one segment into the hotter sectors of the markets. Eventually greed turned to fear when hurricanes and rumors, ect, ended up putting more fear and uncertainty back into reality, and that is when the market topped out during August. Since that time the market has been more erratic than normal. The last few months it has grown more weird and unpredictable. We may be repeating this pattern established late last spring, early summer where select very hot groups-- Energy, metals, very hot commodities or segments of economy-- construction, ethanol production, railroads, metals, energy stocks, etc, etc, may actually continue to outperform. If you are in the right groups you may end up fearing this markets less, and grow greedy as your profits quickly accumulate... and if you remain nimble, flexible, very short-term oriented, monitoring more closely and protect positions very closely... you might actually benefit more from this very weird market. The only difference this time from last year, as I am seeing it, I think in a couple months when the Federal government lagging indicator reports start to filter current facts, real strong inflation fears are going to definitely hit. That I think what could ultimately happen here is something we have not experienced in this generation, since the 1970's. Real inflation fears and much higher gas prices finally stretching our pocketbooks in a more painful way... then these rumors or uncertainty, a new hurricane season fear returning, current tensions like in Nigeria, mideast tensions, Iraq and Iran, ect, etc... the market will once again finally stall out what is currently trending. I am just not sensing real pain or real deep panic in the the people driving around in our country, or around the world people once again seem to be experiencing greater wealth accumulation than every before. I think things are heating up... literally and figuratively... and it is not time yet for our market or theirs to top or peter out.

This is just my personal opinion, an observation is all. I haven't stopped trading these markets... ... I have just made quicker adjustments in my trading to compensate for higher risk and rapidly changing market conditions. Am doing smaller positions, trailing tighter stops and willing to take profits quicker, if needed. Am being a little more disciplined in entries; watching for the very best, lowest possible risk entries first... maybe adding a little more of my own technical analysis to gain greater confidence in a setup signal. Am jumping in quicker when waves of buying happen, but equally pulling out just as quick if faltering or pullback conditions show up... things like that. It really has helped my trading thinking this way. I am once again keeping control of my emotions which means I am ultimately making better decisions and my ability to trade successfully has improved again.

[MR]

To the gentlemen who asked me last month about his 5 stocks... I said UBB and BBD were vulnerable and they did retrace. You might want to watch more closely those two to see if they are now "attempting" to put in longer-term W4 bottoms? Your GLD has to be exceeding your expectations, as it is up over $8 since first discussed and appears to have more room to work higher as the longer-term trend is not over. PCZ and CNQ should be making you a little happier soon, is my guess. Hope this helps, marc

Originally posted by kosmicmisfit - Posted: 03-21-2006 01:28 PM
I wanted to get your opinion. I recently placed trades on these stocks (bbd, gld, pcz, ubb and cnq,)on 3/15.
In my opinion they meet all the criteria for a Type 1 trade. Do you agree?
thanks

Originally posted by MR - Posted: 03-27-2006 02:44 PM
I apologize for taking so long to evaluate your trades. Yes, all appear to be some form of a Type 1--

BBD - Banco Bradesco S.A.
UBB - Uniao de Bancos Brasileiros S.A. (Unibanco)
GLD - streetTRACKS Gold Shares
PCZ - Petro-Canada
CNQ - Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.

It is hard to tell for sure if these setups will work out as quickly as you might like. If they stay simple corrections they should soon get going back up again. If not, you may be in a more complex Wave 4 pullback. GLD looks very favorable. PCZ ok. CNQ looks ok, not quite sure if it is in a triangle pattern or what? UBB and BBD are both vulnerable a little if they don't get going soon. . . .

Sincerely, Marc

[MR]

If you look at some of my recent charts posted here the past month or so, you might want to review or recreate the chart yourself to track. Stocks like AAPL, SNDK, SHLD, USG, to name a few. I only own a 100 shares of AAPL and USG but have interest in finding a way to trade into the other two stocks mentioned, for example. The only stock that I posted here in the past month or two that did not work out as defined was PFE, but it was an aggressive breakout type setup trade and that trade parameter did not conform to expectations. Ironically, that trade might bounce up a couple points soon if this last pivot low holds.

[MR]

Here is my post from 7 months ago... when reviewing it noticed every one of these stocks continued to trend higher since that time, and still look attractive, in general.

Originally posted by MR - Posted: 09-20-2005 10:38 PM
Start to watch more closely some gold, silver, copper related stocks. I sense a few
Type 1 setting up before the end of this month. Look at stocks, such as: GG, NEM,
AU, RGLD, GFI, SIL, FCX, PD, BHP, RTP, RIO. They seem to have stronger patterns.

Seems, also, pullbacks in GS, ITG, and LEH could still lead to a Type 1 setup.

Hope this helps someone out there.

Best wishes,

Marc

[MR]

Is Apple Computer (AAPL) in a Type 1 setup?

Apple Computer, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL) - I have been waiting very patiently, for months, for an attempt to buy into this stock when I thought it should near the end of a major complex Wave 4 correction. I decided this week to nibble a couple days ago on this last pullback and bought 100 shares at $66.139, April 18, 2006.

This is a stock I know well and have confidence in the technical analysis setup. Equally, I believe in Apple's strong leadership, under Steve Jobs, and fundamentally really respect its business plan. For example, the recent announcement of Apple Computer opening its PC architecture to work with MS Windows allows easier migration into that larger PC market. This should create more opportunity for new business later this year. (I think Apple only has about 3% of the PC market.) I use to, for example, own a MacIntosh computer but had to migrate to the MS DOS world, at the time, because of necessity. I hated to because the Mac was a fantastic system to use. I can see a lot of people returning to Apple Computers when they start marketing for the fall shopping season, and I may be one of them!

Ipods are only one segment of Apple's strategy. Steve Jobs and Apple Computer have always been very innovative, offering new products no one else has seen a market for at the time. I sense more good things coming around the corner and would like to have some ownership in this company. (Job's other company, Pixar, was also a great success in ways no one could have predicted.) As long is Jobs is around dreaming of ideas for Apple Computer, his great vision will find new ways to market new unique products the consumer wants and needs in ways no one else has vision to see.

I like the idea of owning a little piece of an Apple at this time. Apple Computer is clearly a company that has redefined itself from its early days. Using a combination of technical (Advanced GET techniques/methodologies) analysis, and some fundamental analysis, I am coming to the conclusion now might be the time and price to get involved in buying some Apple Computer stock.

Apple Computer's stock price uptrend last year, I believe, was not a fluke! Hence, this will be the beginning of a longer-term investment play and not just a quick profit trade. If my logic is correct, I would like to add to this position in the near future. If this logic fails to work out, and I get stopped out, I would like to return again for another opportunity later this year.

(See below, attached reference AAPL daily chart)

Marc

[766456]

Re: Is Apple Computer (AAPL) in a Type 1 setup?

Marc,

I follow your postings for a while now with great interest, and I am in the phase of study the capabilities of advanced get and specific the type 1 buy's. So I try to learn from veterans like yourself.
The way I see it ,and becides the fundamental reasons, the chart is not a good type 1 buy. PTI bellow 35, and pure on TA you have only 50% change to make a new high.
As said, I only try to learn so I hope you are willing to explain why you buy this stock today when the rules for a type 1 buy are not all confirming and especially now when you see the major indexes at there top and could fall (posible) any day now.

Perhaps I'm to carefull, so I would appreciate your ideas on this.
Thanks, Roger

Originally posted by MR
Apple Computer, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL) - I have been waiting very patiently, for months, for an attempt to buy into this stock when I thought it should near the end of a major complex Wave 4 correction. I decided this week to nibble a couple days ago on this last pullback and bought 100 shares at $66.139, April 18, 2006.

This is a stock I know well and have confidence in the technical analysis setup. Equally, I believe in Apple's strong leadership, under Steve Jobs, and fundamentally really respect its business plan. For example, the recent announcement of Apple Computer opening its PC architecture to work with MS Windows allows easier migration into that larger PC market. This should create more opportunity for new business later this year. (I think Apple only has about 3% of the PC market.) I use to, for example, own a MacIntosh computer but had to migrate to the MS DOS world, at the time, because of necessity. I hated to because the Mac was a fantastic system to use. I can see a lot of people returning to Apple Computers when they start marketing for the fall shopping season, and I may be one of them!

Ipods are only one segment of Apple's strategy. Steve Jobs and Apple Computer have always been very innovative, offering new products no one else has seen a market for at the time. I sense more good things coming around the corner and would like to have some ownership in this company. (Job's other company, Pixar, was also a great success in ways no one could have predicted.) As long is Jobs is around dreaming of ideas for Apple Computer, his great vision will find new ways to market new unique products the consumer wants and needs in ways no one else has vision to see.

I like the idea of owning a little piece of an Apple at this time. Apple Computer is clearly a company that has redefined itself from its early days. Using a combination of technical (Advanced GET techniques/methodologies) analysis, and some fundamental analysis, I am coming to the conclusion now might be the time and price to get involved in buying some Apple Computer stock.

Apple Computer's stock price uptrend last year, I believe, was not a fluke! Hence, this will be the beginning of a longer-term investment play and not just a quick profit trade. If my logic is correct, I would like to add to this position in the near future. If this logic fails to work out, and I get stopped out, I would like to return again for another opportunity later this year.

(See below, attached reference AAPL daily chart)

Marc

[MR]

Apple covered this morning's gap open. If I am correct in my assumptions we should soon continue to migrate higher now. If my timing is incorrect, I may eventually get stopped out.

Roger, you are correct. There are a few question marks here. If you value PTI then this is one concern. Contrarian analysis also teaches you buy when others don't want to buy, and sell when everyone else wants to buy. To some degree, that psychology might play into this position. It is one reason why I only bought 100 shares instead of a establishing a larger initial postion. Once it conforms to my expectations, I can establish a bigger position later when things begin to look safer.

I wish I could explain this better, but this is the essense of what I am attempting here. If I am correct, the wave 4 is completing itself, but again, the evidence or verdict is still out until a newer recent high is made... the sooner the better.

Here is a nice article I was just reading on Apple. (Click here)

Marc

[766456]

AAPL

Thanks Marc for the answer. I to believe to, that AAPL is a very strong stock. One more question if you don't mind.
For 2 months now, the media and charts telling us that top indexes are at there highs and will fall soon. For 2 months now I was afread of buying and missed a few perfect trades, because the overall market was and is bullusch.
Do you keep the general market in mind in your buying decisions, or do you just go for the rights chart setup?

Roger

[MR]

Roger,

It kind of depends on your experience is as a trader, your risk tolerance personality, how deep your pockets are and how much you can afford to lose. In general, I think, yes, when evaluating a trade, it does help to consider the aggregate picture as well.

[PRH]

KC Wheat Hourly Chart

From time to time I play with the Gann Box in the manner that Andy B. taught the Advanced Get followers... This hourly KC wheat chart (July) seems to follow the roadmap quite well.

Comments and criticisms are invited and welcomed.

Cheers,

PRH

[766456]

Gann Box

Dear PRH

Thank you for your idea. I never used it because I don’t know what the rules are. Is there a white paper or something else available to learn how to place it on a chart and make the right interpretation?
For now, it seems to me that you can drag the gann box in such a way that is always will fit, somewhere, but as said, I don’t know how to use it
Can I also conclude that you meanly decide to buy based on the chart itself even the majority of the major indexes are bearish?

All comments are welcome.
Cheers
Roger