Interesting Chart Patterns To Monitor In Coming Days...

[MR]

Tuesday, 19 July 2011 -- Minor pullback may be completed as many stocks I have been monitoring for short-term buys reversing up this morning. Not chasing ISRG, PCLN, GMCR, AMZN, NFLX... but respect their trends and still interested in dips and any proper buy setups for quick trades.

MA, CMG, CEO, and TNH are my personal picks today for aggressive traders looking for something reasonable. Stops below yesterday or recent two week lows, they need to follow-through before the end of this week or will bail.

I actually bought 175 shares of AAPL today going into earnings. If wrong could be in for a short-term headache, but if right could benefit by a very positive chart pattern, popular stock with decent momentum. I don't recommend others do what I did as I broke trading rules to do this. Am just sharing so you can see what a great trader I am, or what an absolute idiot I can be too. Tomorrow will tell.

[MR]

Thursday, 21 July 2011 -- Scratch CEO from the list. Was interested in buying it soon but the past two days weakness dramatically make that more difficult now. Still favor tracking TNH the next two weeks to see if it sets up a possible lower-risk buy setup.

[MR]

Tuesday, 2 August 2011 -- Sorry I have been on vacation and could not update market observations. After a couple days trying to get caught up and find some new buy trades I have concluded too many market makers may either be fully hedged or have net short biases they cannot figure out yet how to safely start unwinding those positions?

Surprisingly, I still see a defensive market. When this happens my experience suggests taking small, quick day-trades, trading the "churning" moves within key intraday chart support/resistances levels may be the only thing that one can do for the next day or two. If things do not degrade too much more by Thursday afternoon or Friday we could see a nice mild rebound going into the weekend.

Bottomline: If I were short I would stay short. If I were bullish, it doesn't feel like it is the right time or price to buy. It just doesn't feel like Bulls are willing to step to the plate and take a swing; nor does it feel like Bears are willing to close out some positions, or know what is the safest way to start scaling out yet? That makes for a very tough trading market the next couple days.

I have no open positions so there is no pressure to trade or defend positions, but I wanted to mostly post this update to say 'hi' and let my trading buddies out there know I am back at it watching things for them again.... As soon as I see something key happen, I promise to let you know and post another update here.

[MR]

Tuesday 2 August End-Of-Day Update -- I didn't have a lot of time to do my own due diligence but toward the end of the afternoon I bought some shares of FAZ as a possible short-term trading opportunity with some controllable risk if I am wrong. If we gap lower tomorrow, or rally mildly, there is a good chance the market will be able follow-through with another decent drop before the week is up. Again, not predicting, just decided to be a little pro-active this time instead of waiting for confirmation.

[MR]

Thursday, 4 Aug 2011 -- This afternoon was reflecting on a few things :

(1) How quickly the term "double-dip" will return to our vocabulary?

(2) How can perceptions change from extremely bullish to extremely defensive in less than two weeks?

(3) Charles Dickens was right... the opening paragraph of A Tale of Two Cities says it all... "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to heaven, we were all going direct the other way - in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only."

Bottom-line: We have a complex or more serious correction now in progress. Will be monitoring for any sign of a short-term bounch point by Friday afternoon, or early next week.

[MR]

Friday, 5 Aug 2011 --

Around noon I was monitoring how the Dow Jones Industrial Average sold off sharply to hit 11,139.00. Then I noticed 1.618 = 11,131.696! Based on how the market bounced nicely off that support I had to conclude that is the place where the big boys have drawn their line in the sand and will fight to prop up the market before the Friday close. So, it was time for me to take off that small FAZ position I bought Tuesday afternoon. The profits exceeded expectations for a 3-day trade.

Does this mean the sharp 2-week decline is over? I have to be honest, I really don't know. Price oscillators lacking divergences suggest early next week is still going to be tough trading and bulls still have reasons to remain cautious.

My heart and instincts tell me I should still be short; however, I am really exhausted after working really hard this week trying to stay on top of things. I got out of FAZ mostly because I need some rest to better prepare new strategies and the amount of work it would take to milk a little more profits is not worth it. I know if I am rested I can find more good trade opportunities next week.

If I were emotionally strong today, I would try to stay short for at least one more pullback today. I still think this market is vulnerable... but making money is the goal of trading, not being right in one's analysis.

The last hour of trading will answer a lot of questions. If the market closes weak, it might be wise to keep defensive going into next week.

[MR]

Monday, 8 Aug 2011 -- Wish I had stayed short (using FAZ ETF). With S&P downgrade of US debt today's open looks like the downtrend pressure continues. If the DJ Industrial cannot hold up above 11,000 then odds favor the bears will retain the upper hand... until proven a support level can finally hold.

[MR]

Friday, 12 Aug 2011 --

After a pretty intense pullback for two weeks, things are stabilizing enough where some fear is dissipating and either short covering is going on or some new buying is taking place.

Because of the possible Elliott Wave count structure, Bulls are not out of the woods yet until we can make it through the weekend without any additional surprises. There still is a possibility one more pullback could test this weeks lows if gains are not extended into this afternoon, or if we cannot get more positive trading into Monday or Tuesday of next week.

If these lows can hold one more pullback, then my guess is aggressive short-term traders will be willing to trigger more lower-risk, oversold buy setups.

That will give use additional time to muddle through what is left of trading for this month. Then all we have to worry about is trading the traditional risky September or October months!

So far today is a net bias up day.

[MR]

Tuesday, 23 Aug 2011 -- Have been on the sidelines this month waiting very patiently for insights as to when to buy back in this troubled market. I decided today is the day to establish some new small positions in AAPL and GMCR. There are plenty out there to chose from but I am focusing on the quality ideas that I don't mind owning if I am wrong with my entries. I am being pro-active because I think they will. Will update you as soon as I find out if I am right or wrong. ~ marc

[MR]

Friday, 9 Sept 2011 -- I covered small positions mentioned in last post for a profit in GMCR and larger gain in AAPL. For Monday morning watch to see if the DAX index can hold hold 5000-4900. Watch your European market trading a little closer next week. It is making me a little nervous right now. I predicted early August I felt August, September and October this year would be hard months to trade if you were bullish... and, so far, that is turning out to clearly be the case.

[MR]

Thursday, 22 Sept 2011 --

The intensity of the US stock market decline the past two trading days suggests the market is still in trouble, potentially similar to what occurred in 2008. I hesitate to mention targets at this point but I will tell you yellow caution flags are not waving, bright red extreme warning flags are! Please be very careful if you are looking for new longer-tem buy entries. This may not be a wave 5, but a wave 3.

If there is such a thing as a Plunge Protection Committee, they need to to convince the investing community, for example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index can now hold soon above 10,430 to 10,300. If not, I wouldn't want to guess where the bottom ultimately shows up at.

[MR]

Tuesday, 27 Sept 2011 -- Back in 2007 I noticed a phenomenon occurring where traditional technical analysis techniques and methodologies that consistently worked in the past two decades began to have occasionally totally unexpected results. Trading action moves would occasionally produce reaction "anomalies" that did not always make sense.

I pride myself on my visionary skills and anticipating the unexpected in ways others cannot. When surprises consistent show up that I was not fully prepared for, I know something is wrong with the markets. So, back in 2008, I began warning friends to be careful and tread more lightly when speculating in the markets. For a while there I felt like an idiot when the market would rally after I would issue such warnings, but then something finally happened. The financial meltdown of 2008 occurred. After that I was not perceived like the little boy who cried wolf too many times.

Fast forward to 2011 and this eerie feeling of "déjà vu" continues to creep back into my psyche. There is this compelling sense of familiarity with things witnessed in 2007-2008 showing up again since late July.

I have to be honest, I don't know how to deal with it.

During times of great uncertainty I don't think the little trader typically has the resources needed or the sophistication savvy necessary for weathering through unpredictable volatility swings that will occur in often totally unpredictable ways. That is why I am being more cautious this time than in 2008. It is why I would recommend you don't focus as much on news and current events to influence your trading strategies because all it will do is continue to confound you and throw off your timing, money management issues and such.

Now that I have gotten this off my chest, I will go back to work and trying to better figure all this complicated mess we are in.

While I don't always have all the answers I promise you I will keep digging deeper until we can figure out ways to catch the next big trend.

[MR]

Wednesday, 12 October 2011 --

I am posting this update because I think a major selloff continuation has been averted. October may not be as bad as anticipated. November and December could end up decent months too. I still have my doubts about the 1st quarter of 2012.

The past two weeks things are starting to really improve and market psychology in US and Europe continues to improve.

Originally posted by MR
Friday, 9 Sept 2011 -- ....For Monday morning watch to see if the DAX index can hold hold 5000-4900. Watch your European market trading a little closer next week. It is making me a little nervous right now. I predicted early August I felt August, September and October this year would be hard months to trade if you were bullish... and, so far, that is turning out to clearly be the case.

The US indicies held recent lows and suddenly reversed back up, and the German DAX index held a key 5,000 level and now continues to push higher out of its recent trading range. In some ways it appears a "feel good about your investments" psychology is about to quickly return to pre-August bullish tendencies.

What has changed fundamentally that merits such dramatic changes in attitudes every two or three months? Maybe recent changes have been the perception that Europe is about to get its house in order and avert a financial crisis? Maybe it is anticipation we will have a good USA earning season?

Perception and realility are not the same things. All these changes will do is change perception 'for a season' until the fundamental morose issues that worry any human being who has any common sense resurfaces again weeks or months from now.

Don't get me wrong, I am not complaining things are finally improving. I am ELATED to see stocks rebounding again! I have seen some very good friends who lost some serious money the past two months who need to get their money back!

All I am saying is... enjoy it while you can. ... just don't get suckered into believing everything is alright.

I have been an aggressive bull for two years. I am still bullish, just more trading in a conservative mode for the near-term. For example, I am not participating in this recent rally, and I am not upset about it. I will only trade if I can get the very lowest-risk entries, long or short. Other than that I am content right now as a trader watching from the sidelines until I can better figure things out.

I think our US market could even test the previous highs before the end of the year. Does it have what it takes to keep going this time if it does? For the past two years it did. I am not so sure this time it is a guarantee.

I really do think something has changed this time. I just cannot quite put my hand on what it might be.

[MR]

Market Update (Wed, 14 Dec 2012; 2:10PM NYT) -- Late August I became convinced the US stock market had entered a highly unpredictable, complex, wide-swingly range phase where it was going to be very hard to predict or anticipate every single future swing move. I have not posted anything or traded much since October because I needed more time and information to better figure things out.

My analysis continues to suggest things may not be as rosy domestically or overseas as we are led to believe. I felt it was time to trust my convictions and test the trading waters once again. When the 'Santa' rally failed to take out the Oct/Nov highs last week, I established my first Short position in a several months. My plan is to trail a tight stop and, if we do not take out the November lows by next Wednesday, Dec 21, to try and cut-and-run with even a small profit. I believe this was the right thing to attempt at this time. I thought I would not be attempting a Short position until either January or February, 2012, but the risk vs. reward setup was justifiable now.

If we do not take out the November lows later this month, it is very possible we could still be surprised with a decent rally in early January 2012, particularly if we continue to hold at the lows established since August. ~ marc

Originally posted by MR Wednesday, 12 October 2011 --

"I am posting this update because I think a major selloff continuation has been averted. October may not be as bad as anticipated. November and December could end up decent months too. I still have my doubts about the 1st quarter of 2012...."

(See below the rest of that post)

[MR]

Tuesday, 20 Dec 2012 -

I think today's positive trading action is exaggerated by Hanukkah beginning tomorrow and Christmas coming up shortly too. Traditionally this is a very poor time to trade unless you are a hardcore short-term trader who needs your daily fix. I am, therefore, going to predict that we can most probably inch higher and hold last weeks lows, but other than that if you are Bearish what you are looking for is not going to show up until next year. We are currently stuck mid-point within a big multi-month Daily/Weekly chart type trading range and until we can swing to one of the outer ranges it is going to continue to be extremely difficult to predict where to establish new counter trend entry points are located. All you can do is swing with the action while it happens, remain nimble as a trader and stay content with whatever small profits you can get. For the short to near-term I suspect the Bulls will try to push, for example, the DJ Industrial to the 12,2150 recent high or 12,400 Bollinger Band resistance zone. Then we see what this rally is really made of or if it peters out again.

Happy Hanukkah and Merry Christmas to you all! See you when the new year begins with an update then.

~ marc