Fibonnaci Extension miscalculation on my part?

[MR]

I will continue this subject, work tomorrow morning with many more illustrations.... I will come back later and refine, edit and improve my english if it helps communicate better.... marc

[MR]

We can anticipate 60% of the time Wave 4 to retrace between 30% and 50%....

[MR]

Here is an sample of what a 30% to 50% Wave 4 pullback might look like....

[MR]

We can anticipate 15% of the time Wave 4 to retrace between 50% and 62%....

[MR]

Here is an sample of what a 50% to 62% Wave 4 pullback might look like....

[MR]

We can anticipate 10% of the time Wave 4 retracing 62% or greater....

[MR]

Here is a real-time example where HGH2 daily retraced in a Wave 4 more than 62%. This example I posted at the former AGET Trader's Outlook as it retraced below 62% but stopping at 75%. It was shown before it rallied again (see next post)....

[MR]

Here is what came later as it rallied off 75% to trend up again to a newer contract high....

[MR]

Ratios for Wave 5

Wave 5 has two primary relationships. Wave 5 behavior has a direct correlation to the Fibonacci relationship of Wave 3.

[MR]

Relationship #1- If Wave 3 is greater than 1.62, or extended, Wave 5 ratios are as follows:

Wave 5 either
= Wave 1, or
= 1.62 x Wave 1, or
= 2.62 x Wave 1

[MR]

Relationship #2-- If Wave 3 is less than 1.62, Wave 5 ratios are as follows:

When Wave 3 is less than 1.62, Wave 5 will often overextend.

The ratio of Wave 5 will be based on the entire length from the beginning of Wave 1 to the top of Wave 3.

Extended Wave 5 = either 0.62 x length
(beginning of Wave 1 to top of Wave 3) or
= length of
(beginning of Wave 1 to top of Wave 3) or
= 1.62 x length of
(beginning of Wave 1 to top of Wave 3)

[MR]

Odds are very good Wave 5 becomes extended if Wave 3 is less than 1.62 X Wave One.
Here are some parameters to look for under this condition--

W5 = .62 X Length of 0 to 3
W5 = 1 X Length of 0 to 3
W5 = 1.62 X Length of 0 to 3

[MR]

Here is an example where Wave 5 = .0618. The Wave 5 Fibonacci Extension calculation starts at the beginning of Wave 1, to end of Wave 3 to end of Wave 4. The calculation is the same no matter what direction the trend is. The example below is generated from a down trend Wave 5....

[MR]

Even when Wave 5 is extended, we have found many instances where the Wave 5 will often end up inside the ratio values calculated from 0 to 3, where 0 is the start of Wave 1. The length of 0 to 3 is extended from the end of Wave 4. Wave 5 typically ends inside the 62% window.

[MR]

Here is a quick summary illustration....