Elliott Waves and Commodities

[soylent]

Has anyone noticed that Advanced Get Elliott Waves seem to work A WHOLE LOT better on commodities (e.g. Gold, Currencies, etc) than on stocks?

Or, is this just my imagination?

I mean: I can find instances where .32 retraces w/ regression trend channels setup strong XTL or Wave 3/5 continuation buys -- but, it seems trying to use AGET intra-day on QQQ or SPX or most anything has been fruitless! Nearly everything in the last 2-3 weeks has been fakes. And, before then, I found similar problems.

Every wave either turns into an ABC or by the time the RTC breaks, the risk is too high.

I've tried using the scanner looking for type 1 buys but they don't seem to come through.

I have found tracking commodities seems to be useful. Here's $XAU (not a true commodity -- but, it somewhat tracks GOLD's movements).

Are there other 'better conforming' stocks that I should look at? I think indexes somewhat conform -- but, S&P and QQQ are SO heavily traded that everyone trips on the same signals and blows through the profit potential...

Any ideas you'd be willing to share?

Thanks all!

[nickca]

soylent,

This is a list of the Elliott Type 1 buys I have traded in the last two weeks. They are all stocks. I used the Advanced GET on-line scanner to find them and the time interval is daily:

TER
KLIC
NITE
DCGN
KDE
CDC
DNB
HAIN
IBN

Most of these trades have been profitable and consistent with the Advanced GET/Elliott concepts.

[Philby]

Re: Elliott Waves and Commodities

Soylent ( Mr Green ? )

What a coincidence you should make this observation - I was re-reading a section on commodities in the Precter & Frost book on the bus to work this morning ( Ch 6 p165-170) and the authors make the same statement.

Worth a read

Originally posted by soylent
Has anyone noticed that Advanced Get Elliott Waves seem to work A WHOLE LOT better on commodities (e.g. Gold, Currencies, etc) than on stocks?

Or, is this just my imagination?

I mean: I can find instances where .32 retraces w/ regression trend channels setup strong XTL or Wave 3/5 continuation buys -- but, it seems trying to use AGET intra-day on QQQ or SPX or most anything has been fruitless! Nearly everything in the last 2-3 weeks has been fakes. And, before then, I found similar problems.

Every wave either turns into an ABC or by the time the RTC breaks, the risk is too high.

I've tried using the scanner looking for type 1 buys but they don't seem to come through.

I have found tracking commodities seems to be useful. Here's $XAU (not a true commodity -- but, it somewhat tracks GOLD's movements).

Are there other 'better conforming' stocks that I should look at? I think indexes somewhat conform -- but, S&P and QQQ are SO heavily traded that everyone trips on the same signals and blows through the profit potential...

Any ideas you'd be willing to share?

Thanks all!

[fabrizio]

Philby, Soylent

I add my point of view.

1) It is not the program, but the underliyng. Commodities ( namely agricultural) and cash curr. are more constant in move than indexes or volatile stocks.

2) did you check the Osc?

3) did you check the " bias " of the last 3/4 days ?

How was the progression in retracement is important too. there is at least 10 important retracements levels .

[soylent]

Nickca's Picks

Nickca --

Thanks for your response! I used this see what I'm missing and would like to ask a few Q's, if you don't mind?

Are you saying you scan for TYPE 1 on the daily and then look for type-1/2 buys intraday? Or, do you go for overnight / longer term (3-10 days) holds?

TER KLIC NITE DCGN KDE --
OK, I can see how you went long all these in Mid-December. It seems the entire indexes gave the 'go' signal around 12/20. But, if you took your profits, didn't you close out in early January on these? OR, I guess ride into an RTC break?

CDC --
Could you tell me your thinking on this one? Are you looking to go short soon on this?

DNB --
That's a complicated looking WAVE 3. Uhm -- isn't that Wave 4 (5/35 OSC) retrace too high to consider? I tried localizing in a few other scenarios but didn't really find anything.

HAIN / IBN --

Both look like logical setups -- I hope they make it to their MOB's!


Thanks for the reply and sharing your picks.

[soylent]

Best Books for ewaves?

Philby --

Thanks for the info on the book.

Have you (or, anyone else?) read anything else? Anything you think that has led to a good trading success? (Good as in: Helps you trade AGET better buy increasing your knowledge of what in the #$@# you're doing?)

I find my knowledge screws me up more than helps me. I'd probably be better off just following aget to the letter and ignoring trend lines / moving avgs / etc...

At least from a risk/reward scenario, I am no doubt making aget perform less well by injecting my poor overall understanding of general technical analysis...

Anyone have thoughts on this?

[MR]

"Market Wizards" books are good reading.

Originally posted by soylent-- ... Thanks for the info on the book....
Have you (or, anyone else?) read anything else? Anything you think
that has led to a good trading success?

[soylent]

KLIC?

Nickca --

Didn't KLIC OSC retrace too far to take that trade? I was just looking at that again and it looks like it can still 'complete' but it will be weeks before it is ready to hit its MOB?

Whereas, DCGN, NITE, and TER all had nice looking oscilator pullbacks and general trend strength?

Just curious on your thoughts (or, anyone else that takes a look?)

Thanks!

[nickca]

Re: Nickca's Picks

First, thank you for your comments. I don’t know about you, but when I talk to friends and family about investment methodology their eyes glaze over. It’s good to interact with a forum of interested professionals.

Originally posted by soylent

Are you saying you scan for TYPE 1 on the daily and then look for type-1/2 buys intraday? Or, do you go for overnight / longer term (3-10 days) holds?

I scan for Type 1 and 2 - daily only. I buy intraday when the stock reaches my target buy price. I hold 8 trading days on average.

Originally posted by soylent

TER KLIC NITE DCGN KDE --
OK, I can see how you went long all these in Mid-December. It seems the entire indexes gave the 'go' signal around 12/20. But, if you took your profits, didn't you close out in early January on these? OR, I guess ride into an RTC break?

I closed all these in mid-January. Opened TER in December the others in early to mid-January. Use the sell ½ at Fib Ext 1.00, then ½ at 2.00, etc. methodology. Definitly close at MOB. Not sure what RTC is.

Originally posted by soylent

CDC --
Could you tell me your thinking on this one? Are you looking to go short soon on this?

DNB --
That's a complicated looking WAVE 3. Uhm -- isn't that Wave 4 (5/35 OSC) retrace too high to consider? I tried localizing in a few other scenarios but didn't really find anything.

HAIN / IBN --

Both look like logical setups -- I hope they make it to their MOB's!

Sorry typo, CEC. DNB – you are right! Don’t know if I consciously broke this rule. I can only think the Elliott Trigger looked right. The GET Osc is hard to quickly read. I find I must read the oscillator numbers from the cursor window. Any tips in making this easier to read? As for HAIN & IBN, they hit their stops today.

[soylent]

Bias?

Fabrizio --

What do you mean by BIAS? You mean that BIAS indicator in AGET? Or, general (personal) bias as in: This stock looks like it's going up?

Like, QQQ has been 'flat' for 2 weeks hence I would probably want to see it break top or bottom resistance before considering anything that didn't fall in that range-bound trade area?

Is there anything you use to decide bias for intraday / multi-day trades?

Thanks!

(I should add: QQQ has -definitely- broken resistance!)

[soylent]

MRK

OK, this may not be the best example but it's a real trade...

- Wave 3 on 60Min (good PTI)
- Wave 3 on Daily (though, low PTI)
- Wave 5 on 15-Min

The attached shows MRK. I took the trade at 47.80 on the 15-min bars. With a target of 48.80. Stop of 47.50.

The potential bad sides I saw to this trade:
- OSC broke the bottom line.

Anyone else have comments on why this would be good/bad?

We'll see how this turns out tomorrow! Thanks all!

[soylent]

RTC / et al

Nickca --

Abbreviation RTC = Regression trend channel

As for stocks -- I find talking about it w/ friends just doesn't work at all. Mostly because 'stock prices will fluctuate'! And, all they want is the next Yahoo...

Thanks for the scanner suggestions. If I can ask a few more Q's: (And, this goes to anyone willing to share -- maybe I can post a 'survey'? hmmm).

- How often do you trade? Like will you sit on the sidelines and wait patiently for the perfect setup? So, you won't be in a trade for several days then when one comes along you take it?

- Do you set your STOP order or monitor intraday activity to manually stop out?

- On CEC: Would you re-consider entering this trade? (Anyone else care to answer this? I mean: It's in a nice Wave 3 on weekly and it just looks 'stalled' on the daily'). I've actually been looking at CEC for a while, too... But, that's a good example of buying a stock and 'waiting and waiting' until your patience runs out.

Fabrizio: Do you see anything that would/wouldn't make CEC a good trade? It looks like it has so much resistance from 2 years ago it will take a long time to break through?

Thanks again all!

[Guest]

Gold and Commodities

My own personal opinion is that gold trades very well with all indicators even basic MACD and Stochastics and it has been doing this for years, AGET gives an extra edge. If you pull up past charts of gold and practice using the play back feature, you will see what I am talking about. Trades like a charm. Just my input.

[AndyS]

Hi Soylent,

Quick comment on your MRK chart. You were concerned about the Osc breaking the zero(?) line. Tom's rule for this is that it doesn't break 140% retracement from the high of the oscillator. Which by looking at the chart below, doesn't do that.

Hope this trade works out for you!



Regards,

[soylent]

140%

Andy --

Thanks! Somehow, I thought that lower black line was the 140% line. uhg.

Thanks again!