Elliott Waves and Commodities

[nickca]

Re: RTC / et al

Soylent -

Originally posted by soylent

Abbreviation RTC = Regression trend channel

- How often do you trade? Like will you sit on the sidelines and wait patiently for the perfect setup? So, you won't be in a trade for several days then when one comes along you take it?

- Do you set your STOP order or monitor intraday activity to manually stop out?

- On CEC: Would you re-consider entering this trade? (Anyone else care to answer this? I mean: It's in a nice Wave 3 on weekly and it just looks 'stalled' on the daily'). I've actually been looking at CEC for a while, too... But, that's a good example of buying a stock and 'waiting and waiting' until your patience runs out.

Oh RTC - yes I use this to signal a breakout.

My practice is to use the scanner, keep promising stocks in a watch list, set buy alerts and trade when alerted.

I monitor (primarily to take profit) and set a brokerage stop based upon a 1.6 to 1 reward/risk ratio.

Not sure about CEC - let's watch it.

Thanks again. In addition, thanks Andy for sharing the idea of using Fib Ret to indicate the min and max oscillator retracement.

[fabrizio]

Re: Bias?

Originally posted by soylent
Fabrizio --

What do you mean by BIAS? You mean that BIAS indicator in AGET? Or, general (personal) bias as in: This stock looks like it's going up?

Like, QQQ has been 'flat' for 2 weeks hence I would probably want to see it break top or bottom resistance before considering anything that didn't fall in that range-bound trade area?

Is there anything you use to decide bias for intraday / multi-day trades?

Thanks!

(I should add: QQQ has -definitely- broken resistance!)

By 3 days BIAS I mean the "bias" , the impulse /direction you got from the analysys of the three days before.
Take in account the retracements and the move. Manually. That is all.
Trading QQQ could be wise. Focus on more "challenging" : ES, YM , NQ. And YG (mini Gold) and Globex Currencies using vertical spread contracts ( i.e. short a H4 and Long a M4 at the closest price posible , if you think that the underliyng will be bearish ; should you think it bullish just reverse positions: long the close short the far) in order to get an insurance.

PS: the whole story is defined by the OSC and its pull back. As andy shown. But you must change even counting and therefore OSC when a end of a w4 do not match .

http://share.esignal.com/groupcontents.jsp?groupid=20 MARCUS GROUP
http://share.esignal.com/download.js...id=20&folder=2 Trade Strategies&file=Lesson - Trading Strategies.pdf
http://share.esignal.com/download.js...older=Answered Questions&file=Good Wave 4.pdf
http://share.esignal.com/download.js...older=Answered Questions&file=Is it Possible to Anticipate A-B-C's.pdf
http://share.esignal.com/download.js...older=Answered Questions&file=Question-- Elliott Wave Help.pdf

follow these links.....

[fabrizio]

Re: MRK

Originally posted by soylent
OK, this may not be the best example but it's a real trade...

- Wave 3 on 60Min (good PTI)
- Wave 3 on Daily (though, low PTI)
- Wave 5 on 15-Min

The attached shows MRK. I took the trade at 47.80 on the 15-min bars. With a target of 48.80. Stop of 47.50.

The potential bad sides I saw to this trade:
- OSC broke the bottom line.

Anyone else have comments on why this would be good/bad?

We'll see how this turns out tomorrow! Thanks all!

A) Good that you make a Xref analisys
B) Why you consider PTI on W3? There is many factors to take in consideration , not only the PTI ( which is Important) to define a TYPE 1 BUY or SELL Set Up.But the PTI in W3 means actually Zilch...
C) The fact that the 5-35 OSC is negative but WTHIN the -1.40 % is very good: tells you that the move in whic you are should be 90% a W5. Than you will find the MOB ; hence 7 out of 10 your trend will be stopped.

But you are in a W5: so check the ratio of lenght (100% of W1 or 1.62 of W1 or 2.62 of W1 if is extended : 0.62 of 1to3 or 100% of 1to3 or 1.62 of 1to3)

If you have still r4oom for the move of the W5 , trail stop, do not close , wait the test of the mob and the bounce,. Maybe it will take some time but could even Break.....
If not your trail is close to harvest your profits.

[soylent]

Fabrizio -

Thanks for the links. I have downloaded them (and, searched the rest for more links). Lots of good reading!

Well, MRK stopped out today. It may go up as we are still strong on the 60 and Daily. But, oh well.

I tried a short on QQQ today (15-min bars) but closed at the end of day because I didn't want to take a big risk on a Monday open and I didn't like the 'strength' of the market... It looked like we should have had a selloff in the afternoon but it never happened. Oh well.

Thanks again for the help!

[nickca]

Elliott Type 2 & Wave 4 Channels

A quick question for the group:

Should I consider the Wave 4 Channels indicator in a Type 2 situation as I would a Type 1 situation? Is there a statistical implication?

Thank you.

[Harndog]

Type 2 Trade - mean reversion

The type 2 trade is a mean reversion trade. By this I mean the data should return to the mean or average of a certain period. As it is my understanding that the Wave channel algorithm is related to moving averages, I would say "yes" the channels are related to the Type 2 trade. I only say this as the data returns to the mean of a certain period (20, 50, 100, 200) these moving averages will come into play. As price loses momentum and the moving averages move to include the data, they will meet in the Type 2 trade.

Any comments Marcus?

Harndog

[MR]

The Wave 4 Channels are designed for Wave 4 pullbacks, or Type 1 buy/sell setups. I do not use Wave 4 Channels to help define a Type 2 trade setup. There is something more complex built into the Wave 4 Channels than just simple moving average relationships. One reason why a traditional Wave 4 Channel eventually disappears is because it has served its designed purpose. If you want to use a moving average, just add a moving average to a chart, but don't use the Wave 4 Channel as a moving average. I think you will be disappointed with this kind of application. If you do use Wave 4 Channels for Type 2 setups, please do it a little carefully, maybe put less weight on its interpretation value. That way you are kind of hedging on the damage it might someday lead to.