PTI > Other PTI?

[soylent]

Marc (et al) --

Do you know if a higher PTI is actually 'better'. I just read the PTI article and the only question that is unclear is:

a) Does a higher PTI actually have a higher, statistical, odd of being correct than a lower? e.g. If I am evaluating two trades and one has a 37 the other a 54, are they 'the same' -- all other things being equal?

b) If so, and I have conflicting time cross-references, would that be an indicator not to take a trade? e.g. When my 15-Min scale is out of sync w/ my 60-min. If the 60-Min has a 37 and my 15-min has a 62, does that lend credibility to the 15 min even though it's a less-powerful timescale?

(Example. Earlier today, SPX showed a Wave 4 UP on 5-min and a wave 4 down on 15 min. I chose the 15 min as it synced w/ the wave 3 on 60-min).

Thanks all!

[gspiker]

I'm not an expert, but in all the reading I have done it leaves me to think, as long as you are above 35, the PTI value doesn't really matter. So I don't think a PTI of 90 is any better than a 65 for example.

I'm sure one of the experts will correct me if I'm wrong ;-)

Garth

[Harndog]

PTI & Type 1 trade - my notes

Hi:
Below is a section from my trade manual regarding the PTI and the TJ Type 1 Trade. If Marcus or others have any additional feedback or suggestions please post them.
Harndog

Technical and/or fundamental indicators that are used to recognize the defined a trading opportunity. These the indicators and/or measurements that are used to recognize what you are looking for is occurring and that the market is behaving as expected. (Mike Quanbeck)

Section 1: Advanced Get Mechanical Trading Model: Elliott wave oscillator (5/35)
Type 1 Trade:
i. The Type 1 Trade is used for continuation trades. These are buying/selling at the end of fourth wave retracements and playing for a 5 Wave high.
ii. Allow the oscillator to pull back to zero. Historically, this happens 94% of the time in wave four retracements. The Oscillator can pull back to 120% during Wave 4 but PIT and Wave 4 Channels must be holding.
iii. PTI > 32
1. When PTI <32, the odds for 5th Wave high is reduced.
2. Low PTI increases the odds of a 5th Wave failure.
iv. Watch Wave Four Trend Channels. These channels are price/time lines. These are truncated 20, 50 & 100 MA. The strongest trades will not break the second wave four-trend channel. If, the Wave Four Retracement breaks below the Wave Four channels, the odds for a strong 2nd attempt are very low.
1. Blue - 80% for a strong wave 5 rally. 20 MA.
2. Green – 60% for a strong wave 5 rally. 50 MA.
3. Red - 20% for a strong wave 5 rally. 100 MA.
4. Use Wave 4 channels to adjust your bet sizes.
v. In multi-sloped market use a break 6/4 DMA to setup trade.
1. 6/4 Trigger bar
a. Higher high or lower low must be taken out as compared to one ago.
i. Close above/ outside of 6/4 channels.
b. You are trying to catch 5 to 8 bar runs.
vi. In single slope use Linear Regression Channel with Pearson’s R% > 90.
vii. Trade is not triggered until a closing break of 6/4 DMA or Linear Regression Channel.
viii. Trade triggered on break of high (low) of bar closing above 6/4 DMA or Linear Regression.
ix. The play is for the 5th Wave high. IF, the Risk reward is > 2 to 1, the trade is worth considering.

Alignment
Cross-referencing pays off. – Does the higher timeframe must agree with lower timeframe.
Watch for oscillator divergences.
The best trades will come from breaking high volume bars.
Retracements should hold above the Wave 4. The ideal Wave 4 should complete above these channels. Containment of the retracements levels above the top 2 channels provides a higher probability for a stronger rally for Wave 5.
Break of trend line is useful technique for monitoring a trade development.
Calculate the Fibonacci pullbacks – 38%, 50%, and 62%
1st potential stop – next Fibonacci ratio down.

[fabrizio]

Re: PTI &amp; Type 1 trade - my notes

Below is a section from my trade manual regarding the PTI and the TJ Type 1 Trade. If Marcus or others have any additional feedback or suggestions please post them.
Harndog

Technical and/or fundamental indicators that are used to recognize the defined a trading opportunity. These the indicators and/or measurements that are used to recognize what you are looking for is occurring and that the market is behaving as expected. (Mike Quanbeck)

Section 1: Advanced Get Mechanical Trading Model: Elliott wave oscillator (5/35)
Type 1 Trade:
i. The Type 1 Trade is used for continuation trades. These are buying/selling at the end of fourth wave retracements and playing for a 5 Wave high.
ii. Allow the oscillator to pull back to zero. Historically, this happens 94% of the time in wave four retracements. The Oscillator can pull back to 120% during Wave 4 but PIT and Wave

CAN BE UP TO 1.40

4 Channels must be holding.
UP TO THE RED CHANNEL IS FINE

iii. PTI > 32
PTI>35
1. When PTI <32, the odds for 5th Wave high is reduced.
2. Low PTI increases the odds of a 5th Wave failure.
iv. Watch Wave Four Trend Channels. These channels are price/time lines. These are truncated 20, 50 & 100 MA. The strongest trades will not break the second wave four-trend channel. If, the Wave Four Retracement breaks below the Wave Four channels, the odds for a strong 2nd attempt are very low.
1. Blue - 80% for a strong wave 5 rally. 20 MA.
2. Green – 60% for a strong wave 5 rally. 50 MA.
3. Red - 20% for a strong wave 5 rally. 100 MA.
4. Use Wave 4 channels to adjust your bet sizes.
v. In multi-sloped market use a break 6/4 DMA to setup trade.
1. 6/4 Trigger bar
a. Higher high or lower low must be taken out as compared to one ago.
i. Close above/ outside of 6/4 channels.
b. You are trying to catch 5 to 8 bar runs.
vi. In single slope use Linear Regression Channel with Pearson’s R% > 90.
vii. Trade is not triggered until a closing break of 6/4 DMA or Linear Regression Channel.
viii. Trade triggered on break of high (low) of bar closing above 6/4 DMA or Linear Regression.
ix. The play is for the 5th Wave high. IF, the Risk reward is > 2 to 1, the trade is worth considering.

Alignment
Cross-referencing pays off. – Does the higher timeframe must agree with lower timeframe.
Watch for oscillator divergences.
OSCILLATORS DIVERGENCES
The best trades will come from breaking high volume bars.
Retracements should hold above the Wave 4. The ideal Wave 4 should complete above these channels. Containment of the retracements levels above the top 2 channels provides a higher probability for a stronger rally for Wave 5.
Break of trend line is useful technique for monitoring a trade development.
Calculate the Fibonacci pullbacks – 38%, 50%, and 62%
1st potential stop – next Fibonacci ratio down.

do not forget that what is unclear in one ew count colud be clear with a different ew count coupled with its appropriate OSC
use localize elliot. Always make by hands the ratios among waves.

[MR]

There is some very good input below on the PTI. Thanks Harndog, Fabrizio, Garth! Good work!
My only addition is to click here if you want to see Overview of Profit-Taking Index (PTI)

[soylent]

Thanks All!

This is all excellent stuff. It's amazing the nuances / how many little tidbits I missed the first five times I read all this.

It was really neat the way AGET held true today on the QQQ.

All your information helped me find the short opportunity around 2:15 pm today for a really nice move.

Thanks again all!