Wave 3 end ?

[Philby]

I came across this stock a few weeks ago and the W3 rise seems to keep going and going. When I first found it I thought should I get in or is W3 nearly over ? GET was already suggesting W4 levels, so I erred on the conservative side and stayed out.

To my dismay the damn thing kept going up.

I would appreciate comments on how to read a chart such as the attached to establish a reasonable feel that W3 is nearly over or whether it is worth gearing up to enter because there is still plenty of energy left in W3.

[Philby]

Re: Wave 3 end ?

Originally posted by Philby
I came across this stock a few weeks ago and the W3 rise seems to keep going and going. When I first found it I thought should I get in or is W3 nearly over ? GET was already suggesting W4 levels, so I erred on the conservative side and stayed out.

To my dismay the damn thing kept going up.

I would appreciate comments on how to read a chart such as the attached to establish a reasonable feel that W3 is nearly over or whether it is worth gearing up to enter because there is still plenty of energy left in W3.

[soylent]

Philby --

I'm by no means an expert but here's my thoughts:

- The stock in question had a 2 month base (Nov/December) and had a nice rally out of that base.

- The oscillator is now showing a divergence between the two highs in the last week (slightly lower on the oscillator).

It is likely this stock will correct / stay flat. Not guaranteed but I'd certainly be looking for a different stock if I was looking for a good-risk long.

You could try and get a XTL continuation buy if it retraces and bounces quickly. But, considering there are a lot of people w/ a 50% gain in 2 months on that stock, I'd bet there will be some profit taking soon and a proper wave-4 setup?

If nothing else, see if you can localize the Wave-3/4 a little bit?

[MR]

Just an observation from your chart shown below...
Notice how the oscillator never crosses zero except where wave 3 begins.
Wave 3 is completed, in some form, once the oscillator crosses zero again.
By watching a combination of Fibonacci targets, oscillator behaviors like
crossing zero or staying within the .90 to 1.40 retracement window
can be helpful in guiding your wave count interpetations.
Cross-referencing can sometimes better clarify a wave count.

[Philby]

Soylent

Your thoughts are similar to mine. Each time I looked at this chart I felt the thing was going to retrace. I loaded up a few other indicators last night to see waht they reflected :

1. MACD & MACD histogram seem to be moving towards a peak indicvating not much steam left in the rally.

2. OMB shows volume pulling off materially - assume market interest is waning.

3. Jumping up a level from the daily to weekly and monthly, the Elliot count seemed a little stronger towards a wave 4 setting itself up. The other indicators mentioned above showed stronger patterns as displayed in the daily.

I guess it is just one of those stocks that momentarily looks good until you buy in then the chaos lurking just below the surface breaks free and blows your stops.

Originally posted by soylent
Philby --

I'm by no means an expert but here's my thoughts:

- The stock in question had a 2 month base (Nov/December) and had a nice rally out of that base.

- The oscillator is now showing a divergence between the two highs in the last week (slightly lower on the oscillator).

It is likely this stock will correct / stay flat. Not guaranteed but I'd certainly be looking for a different stock if I was looking for a good-risk long.

You could try and get a XTL continuation buy if it retraces and bounces quickly. But, considering there are a lot of people w/ a 50% gain in 2 months on that stock, I'd bet there will be some profit taking soon and a proper wave-4 setup?

If nothing else, see if you can localize the Wave-3/4 a little bit?

[soylent]

> I guess it is just one of those stocks that momentarily looks good until you buy in then the chaos lurking just below the surface breaks free and blows your stops.

Yes, I buy a lot of those... Or, used to.

WFMI is one that I just couldn't take any longer. I bought it in the last base but I couldn't sleep anymore because the 'damn thing just kept going up'. I wanted it to correct / fall out of the channel so I could sell.

Finally took profits about 1 week ago because I just kept looking at it going, "It's going to correct really big time". It's terrible how little I know!

(fwiw: It DID correct, slightly, the next day... In theory, I should pick it up on an XTL continuation right now but, "It's gonna correct some more, I just know it".)

Oii! I long for the old days when I just bought $SPX and checked what Maria Bartiromo said every now and then...

BTW: How do you find AGET working for you? I'm finding, w/ the help from everyone on this board -- it's really working! I kept rejecting it but MAN did AGET ever peg the latest QQQ selloff (and a few others I picked up along the way). It's like it 'knows the future'. Really amazing tool once you start understanding and accepting it.

[dgellman]

Wave 3 end ?

If you use Get, on a Daily chart, and take a Fibonacci projection for what should be the upcoming Wave 5. You measure from the low of wave 2, to the top of wave 3, and back to the low of wave 4. The upside projections are, 77.82, 84.92, 96.40, and 114.98.
This is how Tom Joseph would look at it, I suppose!!!