Elliot Oscillator - 140% exceeded ?

[Philby]

Can I get some views on the attached potential trade please.

This trade looks as if it is a T1 buy :

1. W4 labelled
2. W4 channels holding
3. PTI > 35

We now wait for XTL to turn blue and for the first breakout above the regression channel.

However note that the Elliot Oscillator has marginally breached the 140% retracement limit.

Is the 140% rule flexible or should we ignore all the other good signs mentioned above and defer to the 140% breach being a deal breaker and walk away ?

[soylent]

Hi Philby --

There are too many -perfect- setups out there right now to take the one you are looking at... (e.g. ORCL, MSFT)

In my opinion:
a) > 139% I would not take it. If it's 'borderline' where I can't tell if it broke 140, I keep looking. Since the market moves like a herd -- there is usually a better stock w/ a better looking retrace than something that is getting all twisted.

The following are my observations on using AGET -- if I'm wrong, someone please correct me:
b) Your RTC (Regression trend) should be drawn to the '4' on the chart -- not to the end. Eyeballing your chart, you should probably be long right now...

c) Don't mix your systems: XTL doesn't need to be blue to go long on a type 1. As long as you close outside the RTC and then exceed by 1 cent the high of the bar that closed outside the RTC, you should be long.

Good luck w/ it!

p.s. Pls post the stock symbol -- it's nice to do my own chart / see if I see anything different.

[soylent]

One more thing:
You should localize that chart!

If you localize, it will probably give you a different wave count / PTI and different WAVE 4 channels. Try to localize near where it last crossed the 5/35 ZERO line.

Since Elliott is really a measure of fear/greed, it measures the impulse/profit taking/impulse. Right now, it's measuring an impulse that started 'somewhere off the chart'. That isn't the real impulse we are in right now -- except in a very long-term sense of it.

[Philby]

Soylent,

Thanks for the guidance. Guess I was a little sloppy on my regression channel - will watch that in future.

The stock is on the ASX - Australian Stock exchange and it is called LNN - Lion Nathan, which is one of the bigger brewery and winery owners in Australia & across south east asia.

I did not go into the deal - I found a few others with a more interesting pattern.

[Philby]

Soylent,

Thanks for the guidance. Guess I was a little sloppy on my regression channel - will watch that in future.

The stock is on the ASX - Australian Stock exchange and it is called LNN - Lion Nathan, which is one of the bigger brewery and winery owners in Australia & across south east asia.

I did not go into the deal - I found a few others with a more interesting pattern.

[soylent]

Ah. LNN on the Australian. Yes, it would be hard to look that up. I don't have the Australia stock tickers. Or, don't think I do.

Best of luck w/ you trades!

[Philby]

Localising Elliot

Soylent

I am aware of the localise Elliot function - are you able to clarify when to use - I can look up how to use it in the manual. I usually run my charts set with 300 bars. Would I need to relaod with a smaller period ?

Originally posted by soylent
One more thing:
You should localize that chart!

If you localize, it will probably give you a different wave count / PTI and different WAVE 4 channels. Try to localize near where it last crossed the 5/35 ZERO line.

Since Elliott is really a measure of fear/greed, it measures the impulse/profit taking/impulse. Right now, it's measuring an impulse that started 'somewhere off the chart'. That isn't the real impulse we are in right now -- except in a very long-term sense of it.

[soylent]

Epic -- Longer term 1

Hi Philby --

Attached is EPIC. I left the DEFAULT Elliot count on this one.

Things to notice:
a) It says we just completed a WAVE 3/4
b) but, the ELLIPSE doesn't show we were ready for a bounce
c) And, the retrace was very-strong (over .38 but less than .25)
d) The WAVE channels are a mile away...

This, on it's own, looks like a good candidate -- and, it is.

But, I will post another view.

[soylent]

Here we see EPIC localized.

a) ELLIPSE aligns
b) 50% retrace is good but not stellar -- will likely doubletop -- will have to be cautious to get as much profit as I can
c) But, PTI is also good
d) Good wave channel hold

So, what I look for is where the 5/35 pulls back to ZERO and try to localize at that spot. If a wave makes a new high (wave 3 extension) with more STRENGTH, I try to localize the current wave so I don't lose sight of the current buyers/sellers in the most-recent wave.

Does that make sense?

QQQ is a good current example of a different wave count if you localize. Normal wave shows we are in an ABC. But, if you localize to mid-december, we are in a wave 4/5 retrace right now...

As for 300-bars -- that's what I use and it's probably sufficient. What I haven't been able to figure out is:
a) AGGRESSIVE mode -- is this usefull or not? And, when to use?
b) OSC 10/70 and 5/17. What the rules are to use them. If you know (or, anyone else does!) please share!

Hope this helps!

[pj909]

Use the aggressive count when 5-35 OSC exceeds the zero line by more than 38% during a wave 4 retrace.

As to the 10-70 and 5-17 use those with the Long Term and Short Term alternate wave counts. (see Elliott properties box).

Frankly I've found it just as effective to examine different time frames vs using ALT wave counts.

I do like the multiosc.efs which shows all three osc superimposed. (http://forum.esignalcentral.com/show...light=MultiOSC)

In the old training tapes, TJ expressed it this way: if 5-35 is the normal osc then 5-17 shows what the short term traders are up to and 10-70 gives an indication of what the institutional playes are doing.

[soylent]

pj --

Thanks!

So, AGGRESSIVE:
- is for looking for a failed wave 4/5 off a 3? (i.e. we are looking for a change of direction)?

SHORT TERM:
- Would that be a preference when trading < daily bars? (e.g. 5/15-min bars?) When is it best to use the short-term setting? I was just looking at this on the 3/5 min charts -- wow! It nailed every move today. Amazing...

LONG TERM:
- Maybe use when looking at the current WAVE in QQQ along w/ the 10-70? (i.e. this would be a good time to add to a position looking at the dip?) What are the exit rules on something like that? (i.e. how do I know this is an 'add' vs. a wave 4 retrace?)

Thanks PJ -- I've now got something to study for the next 3 days!