Q. Problems with Elliott Wave renumbering anyone?

[gsp100677]

Hi, I recently started using Advanced GET studies about 3-4 weeks ago, & over the last couple of weeks I've been having serious problems with the wave numbering algorithm.

I'm looking mainly at 1min bar charts of $UKX-FTSE & $INDU, & I'm finding it continually numbering & renumbering the waves incorrectly (for an example of this check out todays chart of $UKX-FTSE & do a tick replay from 11am GMT onwards). In addition to which it seems to take quite a while to before it renumbers an incorrect wave count. I've tried the alternative count settings, & talked to the support team & they told me to ask here (apparently Tom Joseph et al check this forum regularly).

I also have a problem with the fact that it seems to ignore shorter term fluctuations in price at one point, then several hours later, will number the wave patterns in those very same prices - unfortunately too late after the event.

Is there something I can do to change the settings/parameters to make it count more effectively in these conditions?
I'm trading these indices with trades lasting from 10min-60min & I'd be happy even if I could just know if the price was going to be up or down on the hour (in fact I'd be very happy) with a good degree of confidence.

I seem to be in a catch22 - if I increase the Wave1-3 Ratio or the lookback period the wave numbering may be more accurate, but it won't label shorter term waves that I need - on the other hand of I reduce these parameters the shorter term waves may be labelled, but the accuracy will be reduced & it'll renumber incorrectly even more frequently.

Any advice from anybody would be much appreciated - even if it turns out to be unrelated to Elliott Wave numbering but can be used to accurately predict whether the price will rise or fall over a period of 30-60min, especially in the currently rather choppy conditions of these indices.

Thanks,
Gsp.

[Ron Wheeler]

Reference the 1 minute to a higher time frame is one idea to help you anticipate wave count changes in advance, and to keep perspective.

[ragic]

Hi GSP

I'm like you, pretty new to this. I trade the Dax futures and scalp using the 1 or 2 min chart. I'm using the waves on a 5 or 10 minute chart to show me direction and structure. The wave numbering seems similar on the 5 and 10. Then I'm probably trading with the tide, rather than against it Sometimes I'll see good points against the longer trend, which grinds a bit, but I console myself by saying its a more disciplined approach, which will help me in the longer term.

rgds

[gsp100677]

Hi,

Thanks for the comments guys - I've tried viewing charts in multiple timeframes at once, but this only seems to create more confusion with additional contradictory wave counts.

I have, however been experimenting with reducing the Wave 1-3 ratio while at teh same time increasing the number of bars for the lookback period - this seems to label the shorter term waves aggressively without too drastic an increase in the number of changes in recounts. However, I'm still getting a lot of inaccurate wave renumbering.

I'll keep experimenting & post here any improvements I manage to come up with. In the meantime any further tips on effective prediction of index prices rising or falling over the hour would still be very welcome...

Thanks,
Gsp.

[gsp100677]

Hi,

Thanks for the comments guys - I've tried viewing charts in multiple timeframes at once, but this only seems to create more confusion with additional contradictory wave counts.

I have, however been experimenting with reducing the Wave 1-3 ratio while at teh same time increasing the number of bars for the lookback period - this seems to label the shorter term waves aggressively without too drastic an increase in the number of changes in recounts. However, I'm still getting a lot of inaccurate wave renumbering.

I'll keep experimenting & post here any improvements I manage to come up with. In the meantime any further tips on effective prediction of index prices rising or falling over the hour would still be very welcome...

Thanks,
Gsp.

[tedk]

Originally posted by ragic
Hi GSP

I'm like you, pretty new to this. I trade the Dax futures and scalp using the 1 or 2 min chart. I'm using the waves on a 5 or 10 minute chart to show me direction and structure. The wave numbering seems similar on the 5 and 10. Then I'm probably trading with the tide, rather than against it Sometimes I'll see good points against the longer trend, which grinds a bit, but I console myself by saying its a more disciplined approach, which will help me in the longer term.

rgds

Ragic,
what is your experience with AdvGet on DAX trading sofar.
Apart from technicalities, profitable as well?

[gsp100677]

Hi all,

Further to my last post, I have discovered a few tips for improving the use of the Elliott Wave numbering algorithm over very short term price fluctuations. Still not ideal for me & would still appreciate further ideas for improvements, but here they are:

1. Limit the number of bars you have loaded in the chart at any one time to the current day - I've discovered that each day tends to have its own personality & allowing the software to number waves based on previous days' bars confuses the count & reduces accuracy.

2. Use the Aggressive Alternative wave count (Wave1-3 Ratio of 20) & set the lookback period to 500 bars - this is because I'm looking at 1min bars & since there are 480 mins in a trdaing day for the FTSE-100 which is my primary vehicle of choice, combined with point 1 this ensures you're looking at all the bars of the current day only (500 instead of 480 just because it's a nice round figure).

3. I realised that my success with the software when I first got it, is also partly responsible for my frustration with it recently - when I first started using it, as I didn't know it well & so didn't have confidence in it, & was therefore only taking the cleanest entries, confirmed by a diverse range of indicators, but as this produced successes I began to take everything the software told me to be true. So now, I'm back to waiting for the wave count to be confirmed on multiple levels, & using my own judgement of the trend & price patterns personality for the day to confirm the direction of price movement it was indicating, before taking a trade. e.g. making sure the last wave was numbered v, 5 & (5) (not just looking for 5 & a divergence on the GET oscillator) & that the prices had diverged from the 10 bar EMA(s) & observing that the last few times this happened that day, the price had consistently corrected to just the other side of the 18 bar EMA, before taking a Type 2 coutertrend trade (one of my favourites by the way as I'm mainly trading these indices using a rather unique, simplified capped digital option instrument that expires on the hour, so I get an EXTREMELY good risk/reward ratio with these coutertrend trades).

4. Also I've discovered that the DiNapoli MACD is very useful in confirming whether the move will be large & quick enough to be worth taking (if countertrend then maybe not - check out comments by Joe DiNapoli on the Trade Like a Pro section).

Hope this helps anyone else who was/is in the same situation as me. I could still use more reliability in the wave count, & accuracy with judging the speed & extent of the price moves, but this is definitely progress!

Any further comments/tips always welcome. Any I come up with I will post here.

Take it easy,
Gsp.

[soylent]

Wow GSP -- great post!

And, very encouraging. I've had a love/hate w/ aget. Sometimes it performs flawlessly and others I think 'what's the point'.

Frequently, though, it is so right -- especially when looking @ longer time frames.

That 'digital option' sounds really cool, too! Is that only traded in London?

[gsp100677]

Hi soylent,

Glad you enjoyed my comments. I totally agree about the love/hate relationship with Advanced GET.

The digital option I'm talking about is technically not in fact an option at all - I just found it the best way to describe it for those in the USA, as you guys don't have Spread Betting or CFD's over there - which has taken off massively here in the UK over the last few years. Spread Betting is not restricted to the UK only, but it has been pioneered here & is utilised by many private investors because it allows you to deal very small & all wins are tax free, & by the pros as part of hedging strategies (& of course the Tax Free thing also).

...It's actually a rather unique instrument (offered by a few spread betting dealers/brokers here) called a "Binary" that could also be described as a cross between a spread betting & traditional fixed odds betting instrument.

Unfortunately, you won't be able to take advantage of it in the USA due to your current laws regarding financial speculation & gambling.

Easy,
Gsp.

[MR]

Agree, very good post GSP.

Was wondering if you ever took a look at these threads?
They might have little tips or illustrate some ideas. Some
could be modified, adapted to fit your style of trading.

Best wishes, Marc

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Click here to see Advanced Get for Daytrading thread.

Click here to see Advanced GET TJ's Web Levels (NU/ND)

This thread shows mostly daily charts, but there could be some
day-trade days when this style of trade could be very useful to you...
Continuation XTL thread.

Another XTL idea... click here.

[fabrizio]

Traders

Sorry Marc if I add something.

AGET IS NO WRONG AT ALL.

The unfold of the waves in elliot Theory is complex albeit simplex at the same time.


IT'S A RULE OF NATURE:

R.N. ELLIOT WAVE PRINCIPLE:" All waves of SIMILAR DEGREE will RELATE by GEOMETRIC RATIO BOTH IN TIME AND PRICE

Shortly:
A) THE LABELLING MEANS LITTLE IF YOU DO NOT FOLLOW :
1) THE ABOVE RULE
2) THE DIFFERENT XREF
3) THE CHECK WITH THE TJ OSC
4) THE DIFFERENT TYPE COUNTING

A wave C MAJOR can trasnform itself in a W3 if goes over a certain RATIO WITH THE SAME DEGREE PRIOR WAVES SET.

So The Soft look for definite extension and retracements ,: whenever they are exceeded the structures X ABCD (or if you like 12345 ABC) has changed . Thus the Labelling

The GENIOUS of TOM JOSEPH was to find for you 2 moments of trade , the TYPE 1 and the TYPE 2 to be approached following certain specific rrules . Reducing drammatically the complex and uncertainity ( but unbelievable precise if you know how to master him by "hands" ).

R.N. ELLIOT Is a rule of Behavior ( in our case financial):

Quoting From D.J Jenks Book, 1906
"EVERY SOCIETY IS BUILD UPON HUMAN NATURE AND IS PRODUCT OF OF HEREDITY AND ENVIRONMENT. EACH SOCIETYWILL DIFFER FROM EVERY OTHER SOCIETY, BUT WHEN THE QUESTION IS ONE OF FUNDAMENTAL MOVING FORCES, HUMAN BEINGS ARE MUCH THE SAME IN ALL TIME AND SOCIETY.....omissis
- Carlyle ,

VERY FREQUENTLY MEN IN ASSOCIATION AS GROUPS OR SOCIETIES OR NATIONS ACT IN WAYS QUITE DIFFERNT FROM THOSE OF INDIVIDUALS.

A LARGE PART OF ALL THE SOCIAL ACTIONS IN WHICH MANY INDIVIDUALS TAKE A CONCERTED PART IS IMPULSIVE RATHER TAHN DELIBERATE; AND, THEREFORE, MANY OF THE DRAMATICS EVENTS OF HISTORY HAVE BEEN IMPULSIVE SOCIAL ACTIONS"
- Giddings

" this line of thinking is fundamental to the Wave principle and indeed validated by it"

Start from here , and rhe whole RN Elliot 3 impulsive movements and 2 Corrective movements in a continuos dinamic construction and subdivison of the movements will be easier to understand.

And mr Tom Joseph created a soft that makes all this really simple to approach, if you follow the rules and study.

Follow this MARCUS LINK to UNDERSTAND GRAPHICALLY WATH MEANS THE RN ELLIOT RULE.
http://forum.esignalcentral.com/show...&threadid=6501 MARC EXPLAIN THE WAVE RATIOS VIA FIBO EXT.

[gsp100677]

Marc & Fabrizio,

Thank you very much for the very useful posts - I haven't had time to thoroughly go through the threads you directed me to yet, however, at first glance they look excellent.

Thanks,
Gsp