Survey: Price for QQQ

[soylent]

So far, QQQ is looking pretty abysmal...

Here's my take on where it will be in the next two weeks.

Please take a chance and reply or vote in the survey or post your views?

Thanks!

-c

[MR]

Is a defensive market the next two weeks. No conviction right now? Weak rallies only next two weeks? Just a guess.

[soylent]

Thanks Mark.

Yeah -- with INTC being SOOOOooo sold off it's hard to imagine it dropping more in the next 2 weeks but, maybe...

This will be interesting to see the results of this survey. So far, 80% saying down $1 or more in the next 5 days.

I'll run this poll next week and see if we can build a track record...

-c

[MR]

Yes, we should have done these polls a long time ago. It is quite interesting, a little fun. Best wishes, hope the trades all go your way next week! marc

[gspiker]

Sometimes when trying to determine QQQ direction it pays to look at the ND futures. To me the answer seems a bit clearer when I did that today.

G

[soylent]

What's an ND future?

And, what did you see?

Thanks!

-c

[gspiker]

Nasdaq 100 futures... The QQQ being a derivative of the $NDX(Nasdaq 100), and since where the Nasdaq 100 futures goes, so goes the $NDX and therefore the QQQ's.

Price and volume imply a move to about 1351 over the few days or so...

Noting is set in stone, but it looks like a good setup.

G

[soylent]

Thank Garth. ND = NQ. I thought maybe there was a difference.

I've never seen NQ have any relation to the cash price that lasted more than a few minutes because the arbs step in and fix that little mistake.

But, if I'm missing something more important -- please school me! A pic or something showing a recurring trend theme for price to futures?

Thanks!

[soylent]

Final tally

Well, before market on Monday it looks like we are:
- 70% for a down market this week
- 90% for a FLAT to down market

And, there is one contrarian out there predicting an UP market / strong rally.

Lets see how the week unfolds!

-c

[gspiker]

soylent,

Yes the arbs make sure there is parity, which is why the futures usually lead. However to assume that the price and volume patterns are the same because of this is not correct. For me, often the futures have patterns not to be seen on the QQQ's...as in this case where the Q's looked a bit bearish - but the futures had a pretty solid signal.

BTW, after hitting the target down it wouldn't surprise me if we reverse back up, have to see how the market moves near that price level...but the pattern over the last few months has been rapid rally's on attainment of price objectives.

G

[soylent]

QQQ: Day 1

We made it 1/2 way to our objective today.

The 200-day moving average held. How long can it hold? This could certainly take all week to work through.

[soylent]

Another view of where we are @ 30 minutes.

It sure looks like we have the strength to push through this 200-day ma...

[soylent]

Well -- we continue plodding down.

Couldn't break yesterdays low... But, closed well below the 200day MA and yesterdays close.

Who expected that last-minute sell off? I thought we were pegged @ the 200-day MA. Looked away for a minute and missed that entire sell off. ARGH!

What to expect tomorrow?

From a logic standpoint, I can't see anyone getting excited to BUY yet. So, more of the same... The dow and S&P are in limbo between their 100/200 so they shouldn't be offering any support.


-c

[soylent]

QQQ Weekly perspective?

Just curious -- for your aget veterans:

Take a look @ this weekly chart on QQQ. If we don't stop this decline quickly, we will throw the Oscillator under the zero line. Now, I know we can go as low as 1.4 below w/o violating the setup but...

If we meet these ELLIPSE objectives, that oscillator will go quite low. Plus, we will break below all the CHANNELS on the retrace.

Any thoughts on how the waves will resolve this? Maybe a massive rally to keep the oscillator from tanking? I suppose we could bounce hard/high next 2-3 weeks and have another weak wave 5 down on the daily before the next up rally?

[pj909]

If you go out to monthly some interesting things appear. w4 up finished in Jan04 at exactly .618 of the time for w1-w3. W3 was a little over 1.618 times w1. Stochastic has turned down, the oscillator went to 0 and the ellipse has already closed. This suggests that supercycle w5 is beginning right now and will take us to new lows sometime next year.