SuperTrader Brad Sullivan's daily commentary

[HamzeiAnalytics]

It is with great honor that I share with you this fantastic news:

Starting March 14th, Brad Sullivan, the great SuperTrader and approximately one percent of MERC volume, will post a daily commentary on HA website under SuperPlatinum Menu in addition to his frequent visits to our live chatroom.

He will post his commentary by 0700 CST -- 90 minutes before the Cash Markets open.

To celebrate this momentous occasion, we are extending our two-week Free Trial SuperPlantinum Subscription, normally reserved for new subscribers, to EVERYONE.


to sign-up click here: http://www.HamzeiAnalytics.com/Super...um_details.asp

[HamzeiAnalytics]

April 1st Equity Index Update by Brad Sullivan

Posted 07:10 CST

Equity Index Update
Friday April 1st, 2005

Today's U.S. economic calendar is busy and will begin with the key release, the March Employment Report at 7:30. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data will follow at 8:45 and the March ISM Survey as well as Construction spending will finish the reports at 9:00.

The key to the market today is the Employment data which is expected to be around +220,000 while projections range from +280 to +140. Anything below +200k would be a surprise to both the equity and fixed income markets. Late yesterday, the Goldman Sachs payroll auction traded around the +213,000 figure and that may in fact be the best consensus estimate.

Within the report, the market will pay attention to the hourly earnings, which is expected to report at 0.2%.

Michigan Sentiment Preliminary index is forecast at 94.9 with ranges from 92.0 to 97.5.

The ISM survey is expected at 54.9 with ranges in estimates from 52.5 to 57.3.

The following scenarios are worth looking at as we progress throughout the trading session. Employment scenario - +300k or greater - ideally this would be met with a positive initial reaction followed by selling as players prepare for a 50bp rate hike in May. However, be wary, as after the first leg down I would anticipate some volatile choppy trading in a contained range.

BELOW +200k would most likely lead to a selloff followed by a relief anti rate hike bounce. I think this scenario has the best chance to produce a large move in the marketplace -- in this case higher. Anything in between these two numbers, +200k and +300k will produce a bit of a yawn, and most likely will yield to the opening of Q2 as the leader for equity index trading.

It is also worth noting the employment trading pattern which is outsized ranges for the first two hours of trading - typically be 30% over a 65 day period. Currently, on a hourly basis, the Standard Deviation in the SPM contract is at 5.45 points - this is over a two week period. However, this reading has been cut in half as we have settled in a range after the steep selling from the 1230 area in the SPM. It would not surprise me to see hourly ranges in the 10 point zone today. If these occur it is an opportunity to take offers or hit bids depending upon direction for daytraders.

--Stone & McCarthy (Princeton)--

There is nothing funny this April Fool's Day about relative returns during the past month. Each fixed income and equity index we track in this monthly "Chart of the Day" update showed negative return in March, with the exception that staple for the most risk-averse -- Treasury bills.







Good Trading,

Brad

[HamzeiAnalytics]

An excerpt from April 11th Equity Index Update by Brad Sullivan

Posted 08:10 CST

Equity Index Commentary
Tuesday April 12, 2005

A quiet start to the week as players remained on the sidelines ahead of some key economic data that will be released today and the upcoming earnings season. However, sellers continue to have the upper hand in segments of the market. The Russell 2000 and NDX settled lower and appear poised to test key support levels in the near term. Individual issues such as EBAY and AAPL led the NDX; while the financials continued their bounce helping support the SPM. Crude Oil reversed sharply during the trading session from 52.10 to 53.80 - however - its impact on equities was negligble. Domestic yields dropped as the long end of curve try to take on key resistance levels.

Today's trading action will be guided by the 1:00 cst release of the FOMC minutes from its March 22 meeting. It was in that meeting that "inflation" became the topic amongst the governors. The markets are waiting to see just how big of a problem the FED sees down the road. Accordingly, future rate hikes - particularly those of 50 basis points or more, will be what players try to asses from these minutes.

The NDX had a crossing in the moving averages at yesterday's close of trading. The 20 day crossed the 200 day MA. Meanwhile the 50, 65 and 100 day MA's are positioned overhead as resistance to rally attempts. The action in the index yesterday was quiet as we attempt to establish a new trading range. Currently, the Standard Deviation for the NDX is less than 1% - this is on a 22 session (roughly monthly) reading. Using shorter durations - 8 to 12 - days move the STDEV to 0.6% for a session.

Economic Calendar

7:30cst Trade Balance, Feb. Consensus -59.0
1:00cst FOMC Minutes, March 22 meeting
6:30cst Philly FED President Santomero speaks

The caption below gives a good sense of why the action should come after the FOMC minutes:
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Brad