Cycles

[renu]

IT STILL VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE CORRECT TIME AND PRICE OF EVERY TROUGH AND PEAK WHICH ARISES IN CYCLES,,,,,,,,DO WE HAVE A BETTER AND EASIER WAY AS HOW TO KNOW,,,,,,BECAUSE I AHVE SEEN CYCLES IS ONE OF THE BEST METHODS TO TRADE ,,IN ANY VOLATILE SECURITY

[joe longwill]

time versus price

price and time are 2 different equations.
a time cycle is based on time and price based on price .
if your correct on time though does price really matter ??
same goes with the oither . say you hit your price target early in the cycle . maybe your pirce is the upper end target . so you move
your target daown to adjust for time . or if an up move you move your price up to adjust for time . yet price is what makes you money . time is a guidle line . for me i say time is way more important then price yet they both have to be figured differently .
also with cycles , you need to determine the acuracy of the cycle
some cycles are not market based cycles and yet they are more accurate then a market based cycle . to figure them out means you have to dig to find them .

[theplumber]

The true answers to cycles have to fit the times. You'll find many who quote someone 50 years ago about how they used cycles or even extracted cycles, but are very vague because they themselves don't really know what they are talking about. My journey into the world of cycles started in just that way, the methods of Gann. I listened to every idiot make every claim in the book as to their "secrets" and how they "could" teach me these secrets for a small fee. Well after many wasted dollars later I found only 2 types of cycles that worked.

The first is astro, not astrology, but astro physics. This is an example of what I'm talking about http://www.innerx.net/personal/tsmith/Schumann.html there is much more research than this but it's all I care to show right now. The Earths resonate frequency is squashed and pulled by not just the moon but also the planetary alignment as well, particually the inner planets. Here is a model Neural network based 100% on astro position inputs for this week http://www.chartsedge.com/chart.html click on example on the web page. I Use this software as well for a model http://www.alphee.com/Old_Host/market_mill_series.htm
and this was their forecast for March, look at the Bradley with moon model. This is their model done Dec 2003 for 2004 http://www.alphee.com/modules.php?op...page&pageid=34 . The astro cycles are very impressive and have literally made me financially secure for the rest of my life.

The second is times series analysis. More to the point, single spectrum and cross spectrum analysis as well as dsp techniques to time series. I use Statistica to make a time series model, based on what EVERY large hedge fund on wall street use with great success. An example of my model, which is propietary and will NEVER be revealed, is here http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/disp...r&a=theplumber's%20charts&id=889
The yellow is my model for the day and the blue is the Pesavento patten that comes with Ensign. Also I bought last Friday this add on to Esignal http://www.sr-analyst.com/cyclePack.htm and made this model for Monday http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/disp...r&a=theplumber's%20charts&id=889 and told people of a dip in the morning with a rise after that low of the day. No one listened, because most people just want to hear themselves talk and are not interested in really making money. This add on by Divergence software is perfect , and for $300 is highly under valued. This is the updated chart http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/disp...0charts&id=889 notice the grey vertical line in the cycles pane, that is an update line that shows/proves when the model was updated. It was done BEFORE the start of trading, proof of the power of cycles IF done right. Wave59 has it's own cycle study, which it calls the 9-5 count shown here http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/disp...r&a=theplumber's%20charts&id=889 I don't have the specifics as to what exactly it is but based on what Eric has said on his website and my own research I tend to think it is amplitude cycles extraction. Again this is science in the markets at it's best, the 9 is the first cycle and the 5 is the ending cycle. So not only do you have a cycle model for $300 (With Divergence softwares cyclepack) but for $59 a month you have EXACTLY where to buy/sell with the 9-5 count.
The study of cycles is a long journey that will take many dollars and much frustration. The truth is out there.

[soylent]

Plumber --

Hey -- thanks -- very interesting stuff! Just found this now buried in the MESA group -- hadn't seen it before.

Cycles are way cool, I agree. Look forward to reading all about it.

Your point about people willing to tell you about it 'for a fee' is so true. It took for-ever wading through all the junk out there trying to figure out what was real and what wasn't. TIME has always been my enemy and the amount of time these hucksters waste is deplorable.

-c

[MR]

I think the AGET EOD program has a really nice Cycle study feature worth checking out. Had some good luck with it in the past.

[MR]

PS-- Can i vote?

[soylent]

Hey MR ---

Yes, I saw that about CYCLES. Any plans you know of for putting it in eSignal?

-c

[redsignal]

theplumber,

Your post on cycles is quite interesting
and thank you for sharing your experiences.
However, some of the links
in your post are broken. Can you provide
updates to these links ?