Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

modifying R-Squared

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • modifying R-Squared

    Hey Kz,

    Do me a favor if any of these fancy schmancy indicators you been tickering with do alot better then the plain old vanilla one's let me know.

    I was the ultimate "fiend for the grail" for a long time and backtested evey concievable indicator and the results were always disappointing, some more the others. It's possible my methodology was flawed and I missed something.

    FWIW the T3 moving averages as far a moving averages go did test better then the standard, sma, ema, but not quite tradeable.

    I've read a paper on the Jurik website of a comparasion of Jurik moving averages with others and the results were impressive, but never got around to testing.

    Not sure of the experience of others but I learned too late and wasted too much time and effort in the wrong direction, back testing everything.

    I found out that I had much better results taking a less them impressive result/system with one or two of your favorite indicators eliminaing one bad trade here, and another there and that process actually yields some promising results.

    If you have a system that breaks even 5 bad trades 5 good ones, and can code around that 1 bad trade your 60 40. Plus there is an added effect, instead of 1 less loss, many times the effect is compounded because not only do yo not incur that loss, but many times the previous trade also make alot more, so the effect on the equity curve is larger then the percent profitable number indicates.



    Anyway good luck.

    Glen
    Last edited by demarcog; 11-26-2007, 01:22 PM.
    Glen Demarco
    [email protected]

  • #2
    Hey Glen,

    I appreciate your "lessons learned" review. I'm going through several things like T3 and linear regression indicators.

    Most require fine tuning of my "observation skills". The R-squared (based on linear regression) is interesting because the same author (Barbara Star, PHD) wrote about LRReversals awhile back in Stocks & Commodities. That's where I started to learn about it. Apparently, when R-squared turns up through 0.20, it signifies a strength in the move (up or down). Also in the article and Jason's fileshare is the LinReg_Slope(which does follow direction of the move better). Ms. Star's article will agree that it's not the perfect indicator but it sure seems to help my powers of observation in realtime. Haven't backtested it but I'm using an audible for when it goes through the .20 to see if there is a tradeable move.

    All the Best for your success.
    Kirk

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by zeller4
      Hey Glen,

      I appreciate your "lessons learned" review. I'm going through several things like T3 and linear regression indicators.

      Most require fine tuning of my "observation skills". The R-squared (based on linear regression) is interesting because the same author (Barbara Star, PHD) wrote about LRReversals awhile back in Stocks & Commodities. That's where I started to learn about it. Apparently, when R-squared turns up through 0.20, it signifies a strength in the move (up or down). Also in the article and Jason's fileshare is the LinReg_Slope(which does follow direction of the move better). Ms. Star's article will agree that it's not the perfect indicator but it sure seems to help my powers of observation in realtime. Haven't backtested it but I'm using an audible for when it goes through the .20 to see if there is a tradeable move.

      All the Best for your success.
      Kirk
      Hey Kirk,

      My "observation skills" are unfortunately not my strength, which is why I was hopeful that my "grail fiending" would be more successful.

      BTW I hope my tone wasn't taken as paternalistic or sarcastic as my own rereading of my response I thought I may have given that impression, and apologize as that's was not my intent at all. Frequently with email and forums subtle humor or attempts at loosness frequently are way off the mark

      I also have been a big fan of TASC (althought never found anything that tested bery well). Sounds like you are much more astute then I, perhaps I should revisit or dig deeper then I had. as you make some interesting points I overlooked.

      I recall being impressed with her articles and code and surprised that the systems didn't do better. As is always an issue, what instrument, what time interval, etc, etc. Bottom line if it's working for you trading that the important thing. If you want to collaborate on testing I've got that part down at least.

      Thanks for the information, my main point was to pass on that I thought T3 Jurik were worth checking out and really appreciate that insight, hope it continues working well,

      Glen
      Glen Demarco
      [email protected]

      Comment

      Working...
      X