Consistant profits

[Doji3333]

Thanks for the compliment about my comments. I've developed all types of systems for clients - everything from fibonacci based systems to basic trend following systems. I've also been studying TA for over 15 years and been involved in a number of specialized events (trading workshops).

Initially, when I started trading, I focused on END OF DAY (EOD)analysis (and still trade a portion of my account this way). It's much easier to target 15~50% or more with EOD trading.

Many people call this Trend Trading. I have developed specialized models and efs scripts for people that want to trade like this. It's basically best, IMHO, that people diversify their accounts. In other words, the guy that focuses only on day trading is going to miss the boat because he's got all his eggs in one basket.

Looks like the fed just announced their comments. Markets are taking off again. My new adaptive system got stopped out of it's long trade. Oh well. Would have been a great winner, but the stop was tight because of the flat market action prior to the fed announcement. We'll see if I get any more trades today.

[MBender]

Swing trading

Thanks for the response.

I do usually swing-trade (assuming I'm using the term correctly) as well as day-trade. My problem right now is the market's been flat for a few weeks and 85% of stocks follow the market. I'm not comfortable going long, and I'm not comfortable going short. My swing trading uses 30-60 min bars. I'm pretty descent with those, but I like to trade with the general market and I just don't see any direction now.

For whatever it's worth, my system's experience is in high-tech, real-time systems. I help build air traffic control systems in the US, UK and Taiwan, the US weather radar system, even the Hubble space telescope (I'm showing my age). I actually have two books out on project management.

My trading system's up $450 today (in a short trade as I'm writing this). I'm allowing the risk to determine the number of contracts. For testing, I'm limiting my risk to $120/trade.

I just don't know if it will hold up long-term.

Cheers,
Michael.

[arbifox]

When to trade . . .

I have had a moment here to re-read some of these threads and I think what we are all struggling with is when to trade? Meaning, if I was about to tell you that the market is going to drop 15 points on any market, any trend following system can catch that, and then the trick is to not get shaken out by the whipsaws going up or down.

But how to be able to stay out when the market is just . . . blah. That is the key. I am not sure how any single indicator can help determine that, but that might be something we can all share with each other and is not proprietary to anyone.

My solution is to have all of my indicators align in one direction if the program is in a restrictive mode. When the program is picking tons of winners, I relax this condition.

As for EOD trading, just not my thing as it is hard to tell what will happen overnight and I have been burned a few times. Might be great for others, I just do not know enough about it.

Maybe we can all start sharing ideas on when to trade, and when not to, and how to use indicators that can help determine those conditions. If we come up with something collectively, it will be easy to plug that back into what we are all doing independently.

T

[Doji3333]

Thomas,

Thanks for posting. I know you're busy.

I still "trend trade" on Daily and Weekly charts all the time. Sometimes with options of ETFs. Every day/week brings opportunity. I find it *less risky* than day trading and still able to balance my portolio with quarterly results. I'm only trend trading about 20~40% of my portfolio. Missed some good hunches this last year, but oh well. The flash crash caused me to go protective and I missed some good shorts.

With regards to day-trading, I do agree to go for the highest percentage trades. This is the only goal you need to focus on. Anything that hits 80~90+% of time is great.

AWTS is at +$350 for the week (excluding Monday). Trading only one.

My newest system, TCv3 Adaptive, is as shown. A bit different for me in terms that is targets 1.0 pt when it thinks it is time to get in.

I'm having problems getting it to fire the orders properly and trail the stop properly. It was working in RT where it would fire the order whenever the conditions were true, but now I've set it to EOB. Thus it tries to fire a limit order for entry and work the order for a defined amount of time.

Every target is about $46 and a loss is about $100 (per contract). It can be setup to run trailing contracts/shares (for bigger trends). Thinking I might be on to something.

[Doji3333]

Im still going back to 10 min charts. For whatever reason, I seem to think the less it trades the better.

One or two good trades a day is all it takes - right?

$100 or $200 a day with 90%+ accuracy when trading ONE would do the trick. Then the trick would be to manage risk (exposure).

I wish I could show some of you my game. It's a ficticious little thing that is very interesting. It's a model of an economic process. I built it over a year ago and have been playing with the idea.

It's based on a 33% or 25% ROI with specific parameters. It's a model that I'm trying to develop for use in the markets and other things.

I like to think of it as the perfect elliot wave theory - or analysis model. You can lose some of your investment, but never go to zero. You can win also. In fact, with a 1/4 or 1/3 winning ratio, you stand a better chance of winning than losing (although you can go through spurts of losses over time).

Anyway, I'm toying with the idea of a "stamina indicator". Something that will tell the trading system if/when it is allowed to trade and when to call it quits. We all know some days are better than others. I think the stamina indicator may be part of the equation we're missing.

[MBender]

Quick response

I'm out of pocket for another day, but I did want to publish a short response.

I, too, got whip-sawed last week -- Wed & Thur. I lost 1 and a half weeks worth of profits in two days on consecutive loss after loss (on paper). I put in the three strikes and out algorithm and it triggered by 10:30 am both days. This was on 450T charts. I re-ran it on 1-minute charts with nearly identical results. Both intervals have been doing well for me for a while.

Since then, I've looked and studied and I can't find any signal or set of signals that would have predicted the failures on Wed and Thur. Chop was okay, volumes were good, stochastics were good, the market wasn't channeling (at least by my algorithm). I really don't want to start extensive studies of more indicators (Bollingers, OBV, etc.)

I'm seriously re-thinking strategies -- and buying in to Brad's approach more and more -- scalping is less risky and a higher percentage play. I'm not quite convinced on longer charts, I've seen whip-saws there as well, but at least you have time to get out.

more to follow .. please keep the thread moving.

Cheers,