NYSE Composite Index, YX

[MR]

As I slowly get acclimated to my new job description here at eSignalCentral, I will be trying to post useful charts like I use to at the Advanced GET "Trader's Outlook" website. From now on all my work will be posted here at this BBS, or in the Advanced GET User Group, File Share location. Below is an update of a previous YX weekly post. To see the original work, click here. Remember to click on the word "Next" at the upper right corner at "Trader's Outlook" to see the evolution from the original bottom picking post.

[MR]

Here is an email question:

Marcus, Do you believe that we'll go down in a weekly 5 ? OR Are we awaiting a relabelling of the downmove so far to an ABC ? T.F.

Tom,

It is too early to say how all this will ultimately evolve. For now I am monitoring this as a longer term complex correction after a strong decade of advance in all the major US indicies. This is the best wave count I can find that identifies the best risk/reward setups we should be monitoring for. I am not convinced this leg up is over. For now, as long as YX stays above the lower MOB-- if there is any weakness to come-- I still reserve the right to remain somewhat bullish.

Notice under this wave count (see YX weekly below) there is no internal wave count labelling of the previous major swings before wave three. When I see this it makes me think we have a wave count that is still evolving. Ultimately we will see these bigger swings label. MY best guess is it will become a-b-c labels. If that is true, the triple bottom, head-and-shoulders, whatever you want to call it at the major MOB support becames a rally springboard for any further big declines.

I am only human, with a limited capacity to see only so far into the future. But for now, this is my best guess with this YX weekly data. I see the really strongest resistance has not yet be hit. I see a possible Wave 4-- if you want to call this a wave 4-- that is just not complex enough yet, not to my liking. For the immediate future, so long as we stay above the smaller lower MOB, I anticipate more rally attempts to come. If we do see weakness and break down below say 515 to 500, I am willing to admit being wrong with some of the bullish assumptions expressed here.

There are more ideas, but it is difficult at this time to elaborate in greater detail. If you would like to see a previous history of "Trader's Outlook" YX posts prior to April 2003, click here to see a YX PDF stored at the Advanced GET User Group site, located at eSignal File Sharing. You also may wish to compare and constrast this with say the other index posts at AGET User Group, such as the more detailed $INDU post, to name a few. Look at the monthly $INDU comments and illustrations. I think the patterns are relevant to this example.