Euribor - Liffe

[SERGIO.M]

With EUR/USD near 1.20 or higher BCE will be forced to decreese interest rate min. of 0.25%.
For this reason I think the contract Jun.2004 has not correct prices.

We will see.

[fabrizio]

Sergio

Your asssumption is correct if only the BCE would move in a proactive a sensed manner.

In my opinion thar gone the " dumb" Dusenberg who was still scared by inflation in April while we were in declared deflation, for trichet is too early in charge - IMHO- to take such a decision.

Euribor , EONIA do reflect this - as usually - situation tipical of that burocratic, scared, short sighten monetary absurdity that is BCE.

It is due - no matter about it- but IMHO no very soon.

Macro wise there is still desire and room for USD to go down . Same in tye short for Euro to go up.

If the Market will finally reach 1000 and low er, we will likely see EURO over 21

[SERGIO.M]

You have reason Fabrizio,

but I think next year FED-BCE - BOJ will not change a their monetary politics, because there will not be inflaction (there are many competitivenes in the world) and the output-gap is not yet closed (maybe at the end of 2004 it will arrive around of 81% in USA)

This charts say to us "short", we will see.