What is the most accurate S&P daytrading

[whizz]

Akiri,

the blau candlestick oscillator is an esignal efs, but didn't update properly, I have posted one that does update properly and it's called BCO.efs and is among the screenshots.

I like using two together with settings around the (17,5) and (32,5) areas, but one can tweak them to their taste.

I've coded a bunch of indicators, but keep going back to things like stochastic and macd which still work very well. I've become a big fan of regression channels (which you can see from my posted charts)....and they are the missing link for me, since I use indicators to enter, but had too many false signals.....now with the regression channels, I enter on divergences when price is at the outer tines of the regression channels....which is giving me fewer trades, but with higher probabilities.

Lately I've been playing with multiple Stochastic settings and how they relate to each other vs price, and have been finding it very useful. An example from todays trading:

http://share.esignal.com/groupconten...png&groupid=48

Something else I use is Renko Charts.....what appeals to me is that it deals with price ONLY (not time), and although many signals are muddied by the recent chop, I use it to buttress the signals on my candle charts....or, at times, when the candle charts are muddied by chop, I just trade off the renko charts:

http://share.esignal.com/groupconten...png&groupid=48

I've also posted the renko ach (and associated efs files) for anyone that may be curious. By the way, WOMO is a simple indicator that is the open minus the close divided by a smoothing factor:

vValue = getValue("Close", 0, -nLength);
vValue2 = getValue("Open", 0, -nLength);

for(i = 0; i < nLength; i++) {
vSum2 += vValue[i] - vValue2[i];;
}

var vfirst = vSum2 / nLength;

The study "RENKO CHANGE" is just an indicator that places a red or green arrow inside the last renko box when the chart is updated sot that I can see how many boxes were printed during the update.

Cheers.

[Guest]

The point most traders miss or ignore...

Hi Al,

It looks like you've gotten some great advice from some traders who possibly have journeyed the same road you currently travel. The reason I think that this is such a big issue stems from the fact that most who begin trading have probably experienced a high percentage of success in other life endeavors; and expect to find that same type of success in trading.

Trading doesn't reward us based on winning percentages. The successful traders I know are successful becuase they've mastered the ability to control risk. They've made a science out of that aspect of their trading.

Someone else already said it, but I'll repeat it - most successful traders have only a 35 - 50% win ratio. Obviously, they're not successful because they have great market prediction skills - they're successful because the size of their positions is never too large, and the size of their winners far exceeds the size of their losers.

The critical issue that confronts most traders (and systems developers, and even eSignal and other charting programs to a certain extent exacerbate the problem) is confusing their setups and entries with a complete system. The authors of all those books out there, show you enough pristine examples that traders begin to believe there is some sort of Holy Grail, and they somehow have discovered the secret you've been looking for.

These are the same reasons we've made it our mission to help traders formulate and adhere to their own strategies, the concept stems from the fact that if you participate in the construction of your plan, you'll have more confidence in the implementation of that plan.

Each trader controls his or her own destiny. No trader finds success before understanding this principle. We are responsible for everything that happens to us, nothing is beyond our control.

the academy@epit2 - actual real-time trading education

[Trader Al]

Thanks

Thanks eblaster

I realize that good risk control can lead to a low win ratio being profititable, but I have not seen anyone advertise a trading system where they are really emphasizing the exceptional performance of their risk control techniques. One really needs to find a system where the educators are teaching some exctremely powerful risk control techniques. To find this is probably just as hard as finding a "very accurate trading system".

I have had some helpful responses from various people on this board and I am following up on all this. I have also had to rake through a lot of time wasting strategies over the past year or so.
What tends to make my ear perk up is those educators who are upfront and clear about what kind of performance they can help you generate day in day out rather than those who talk big about their successes but mask the poor performance of their system in general by not mentioning it.

What ya want is someone to grab you by the collar and say "get your head into my system it genuinely is awesome, no gimmicks or fluff, 100% vitamin enriched!!!!!"

Snake oil is rife in this game.

Al

[Guest]

A couple more thoughts Al

Al, in reference to what you said I realize that good risk control can lead to a low win ratio being profititable, but I have not seen anyone advertise a trading system where they are really emphasizing the exceptional performance of their risk control techniques.

There are probably a couple of reasons why you might not see that advertisement:

1. Few would buy it based upon that reason - we have attempted to explain this concept in free workshop settings. Eyes glaze over, you can actually see the minds wander. Most traders have a strong desire to be right, so they just want someone to tell them how to get the high percentage of winners.

2. The educators and traders who really understand the effectiveness of position sizing and money management; also understand that while an important aspect of the system - it isn't the whole system.

Al, there are probably 1000s of successful trading systems out there. We've worked with many traders, who when taught a system that works, fail to follow it. Why is that? Because, the system wasn't right for them. Even though others were using the system profitably, some couldn't. Even some you have evaluated, might be working for someone else.

One other comment Al, don't take it the wrong way please, have you considered the idea that you might not be meant for trading. This can be an arduous journey; and some never make it.

the academy@epit2 - actual real-time trading education

the academy@epit2 curriculum

[Trader Al]

eblaster

eblaster,

Right now I am not trading. I will not trade until I find a system I am comfortable with and suits my personality. So I am looking at zillions of trading systems to find one that I can live with.

I am not cut out for trading right now, but if and when I find something I can live with then I should be ready to trade I hope.

I am looking for a trading system that tries to get most of the major moves on a 1 minute chart.

I heard some traders use 60 minute charts for daytrading. To my mind this sounds extremely tedious. Watching charts 6.5 hours everyday waiting for 1 or maybe 2 trades a day. Like watching paint dry I prefer at least 5-10 trades per day.

Al

[Dukefist]

Al,

I'm not sure what you mean by a 'System'. If you mean an actual program that gives buy and sell signals, than you may not find what you're looking for. I tried many diff. programs and some work very well, but I couldn't trade them the same. Sometimes there could be a great program but maybe you don't agree with the entry and exit rules that they use. At least for me, I found I am profitable and do my best if I only do 1-3 trades max per day. The more I trade, the more chances I have to lose. If I take 1-3 trades per day, I'm on the + side. So what I'm trying to say is you need to find a strategy (rules that you believe in) and good money management while applying those rules. Some traders go for 1-2 ES points per day. They become so consitent that they start trading 20- 100 contracts per trade. That's big money.

[atlas]

This is my dream. A system (OK doesn't have to be a 'system' but merely a trading methodology) that can return a measly 0.5 - 1.5 points per day. The key problem here is consistency. I agree that the fewer trades the better. But then those few trades have to be on the ball.

-Christian

[atlas]

Here's the problem I am having:

Let's say you have a system that makes 5 points a day (on the ES). Let's further suppose you make those 5 points over the course of six trades (five round trips). It is an always in the market system. To simplify, we will assume the following scenario. We start off by buying at 799, selling at 800, then buying at 799, etc. so that the the trading pattern looks like the following:

800 800 800
^ \ ^ \ ^
/ \ / \ /
/ \ / \ /
/ v / v /
799 799 799

On the surface, this looks outstanding. You can already hear the coins falling into big piles. So what could be the problem (aside from the unrealistic assumption of the trading prices)? [I am assuming here that the prices correspond to the openings of new bars after signals are generated]. Well, let's say you actually start trading this beast. Here's what happens in the real world. The sell order at 800 gets sent to the market. The bid stands at 799.75 and the offer at 800. Your market sell actually gets the bid, of course. Now you are down 0.25 from theoretical. Not too bad. Except, that, on average, you expect to not get the price you were looking for roughly 50% of the time (a reasonable assumption). So, realistically, you will be losing 0.25 on three trades. Still not bad.

But wait... there's more bad news. When you hit the bid at 799.75 on the first sell order, you were deducted 0.25 from the theoretical. This actually results in a "loss" of 0.5 since that difference affects both the first and the second leg. Ditto for the others, so that we are now down 1.5 points from theoretical. This is still OK, except that no system will average out to 5 points a day on the ES with five round-trips, more like 2-2.5 at the most. I think this problem is insurmountable in always-in-the market systems. Comments?

[theplumber]

Here's a system

Gann and Elliot wave. Make 5 to 10 points a day with 10 contracts

[atlas]

Advanced Get always confused me, particularly when the waves would redraw themselves with each new bar. Guess I needed to read up more on them.

I think you're trying to tell me something here. But I don't see it yet

-Christian

[theplumber]

How many indicators do you see on the screen shot? That tells everything. The confidence I have in EW and Gann is with the utmost predjudice because it works when applied.Some say they don't but they never take the time to learn and learn and learn etc. You have all the tools here with Esignal for a very tight system but it will take alot of work on your part. Only your emotions and way of thinking hold you back. I use GET, MM efs, the new Pyra tool , time/price squares and Gann box to day trade. All the tools are here.

Originally posted by atlas
Advanced Get always confused me, particularly when the waves would redraw themselves with each new bar. Guess I needed to read up more on them.

I think you're trying to tell me something here. But I don't see it yet

-Christian

[atlas]

theplumber -

I see several major and minor waves. A fourth wave retracement to the 38% level. A high potential for a fifth wave peak.

I'm not saying EW and Gann don't work. Obviously, they have a strong and devoted following. My problem is not finding the right indicator (or is it?) but in gaining sufficent real-world trading experience (my suspicion).

Thanks for your input.

-Christian

[theplumber]

Time and price

Time and price tells you the whole story, not an indicator.EW will tell you where you are, were and going (maybe to a fifth wave up or down ?) but the market is a school for probabilities. This is how GET works, such as a greater than 50% chance that a 123 wave sequence will not be relabeled to an ABC correction. This would be insane to trade you may think, and that may be true if this was Las Vegas where the odds are not in your favor, but Mr Market lets you have the oppurtunity to put the odds in your favor with a stop and pattern recognition. Next is the MMefs, see on the 30 minute chart where S&P bounced off 1/8th support lines? What about a target to begin with? Look at the pyra tool efs anchored from the 935 high . Look where 3/12 bounced. Anchor it again from the Dec 2 high and see where the Feb lows bounced. How about the change in trend from the Dec. high ( the end of square ) ,started the Jan dive into Feb lows.I showed another chart of a choppy market in another thread of an A-E correction. The passage written on the screen, have you read that before? This is the education process that needs to be addressed and the confidence will come with it.

[Dukefist]

theplumber,

I also use a black background chart, could you post your MM.EFS -Gann -Time Price Squares -etc with the color changes you made. Also, where could I find info on Gann and these tools to learn how to use them?


Thanks in advance,

Dukefist

[theplumber]

Squaring the range

The MM efs colors can be changed by going into the editor and changing the code, the colors are in blue. The squaring of the range is great for the start of a move off a potential bottom.

Originally posted by Dukefist
theplumber,

I also use a black background chart, could you post your MM.EFS -Gann -Time Price Squares -etc with the color changes you made. Also, where could I find info on Gann and these tools to learn how to use them?


Thanks in advance,

Dukefist