What is the most accurate S&P daytrading

[Trader Al]

What is the most accurate S&P daytrading system you have ever seen? Where is it and how much does it cost? No bogus software please, we all know how many jokers there are selling absolute garbage trading systems and getting away with it, how they do I will never know. The last thing we need is to fork out big bucks and get stuck with "El coin flip signal sysytem"

Post here or email me : [email protected]

[Doji3333]

SP System....

Al,

I believe we all saw your previous post regarding your interest to purchase a SP trading system. My question to you is "why not develop something yourself" or "scan the fileshare system for suitable systems"?

Most developers, like myself, may have something that you would be interested in, but the question is "are we willing to sell it - and for how much? I don't know about the others, but most of us have a system that we use to trade and are happy with.

I guess the big question is "what are your intentions" - private use or for resale? I noticed that your previous post received alot of visits, but no replies - so I thought I would open up a conversation with you to better understand your request. Maybe others will join in and help to resolve your quest.

Brad

[jabez]

Al, you may want to check out this software. At least they give you their daily results (everyday). I have a friend that uses it and he does better than the posted results. http://www.armencomp.com/firstsmart/

[Trader Al]

Hi

Hi Brad and everyone,

Thanks for all replies. I am really looking for a system that allows me to get into an S&P daytrade many times throughout the day so that if I think there will be a move of at least 4 points or more then I can get in with the highest accuracy possible. But I want to have a maximum stoploss of 1 point. I would not take all the signals, just the ones where I expected a move of 4 points on 1 contract.

But having said this I also am interested in all daytrading systems and learning new ideas too.

Thanks


Al

[Trader Al]

Addition

I just thought I would mention that I am only interested in a system for my own personal use. I am not part of any company or organization. I know about most technical indicators but have not been able to combine them effectively yet in all my testing of them. This really makes it impossible to trade because of lack of confidence too. I think I have probably got a bit myopic and paralysed by analysis at this point and I am not currently trading, just searching for something that works and doesn't repeatedly go against me leaving me pulling my hair out trying to decide if I should cut the loss or hold on for it to recover.

I would have no problem taking losses if I knew that consistent application of the rules of a system would keep losses small and the system would work.

I know that each daytrader has a personal preference on how he/she likes to trade and one system may or may not be comfortable enough for another trader. It is a quest that is for sure.

I do not like to hold positions overnight too. I currently have a signal system which I purchased a while ago. It gives signals but 50% work out 50% do not. You have to do detailed chart analysis to figure out which signals to avoid and the problem is I do not know how to analyse accurately enough yet to know whether the signal will work out or not.

Sorry for the ramble but that is where I am right now


Al

[mattgundersen]

Check out the Advanced GET forum in Trading Strategies.

m.

[akiri]

Search for the Holy Grail

Trader Al

A lot of us are looking for the holy grail, so when u or anybody finds it, let me know. So I can stop searching.

Meanwhile I would recommend reading "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas, it is not a system, but goes to the core of why people are searching for the holy grail. It says the success of a trader is not dependant on the system, and how u can trade with any system.

Here is a system for u for free that needs overnight holding and has worked for past 5 years in real time. Maybe u can adopt it for intraday.

Buy ES when price crosses up 34EMA in a 30 min chart. Sell around +35 points or on reversal. Stop loss -5 points.

Sell ES when price crosses down 34EMA in a 30 min chart. Buy around +35 points profit or on reversal. Stop loss -5 points.

If u want to send me a check for this system... well :-)

There is a thread on www.talkstox.com look there http://www.talkstox.com/forum/forumd...php?forumid=13


Kiri

[TWedler]

False break-out trading on ES ?

Dear all,

my impression as a not-so-active trader on the ES is its volatility compared to its directional movement exceeds that of European equity futures and is more comparable to Taiwanese and Japanese equity futures (the products I trade).

I believe that as the ES and also Nasdaq future differ too much from other more traditional markets to be traded by the same means (I have used a tool derived from Perry Kaufman's indicator for range vs trend and added the intraday swings large enough to profit from long options gamma).

I agree with akiri's opinion that the holy grail is in the trader and not in the system. Choice of system is still paramount to succeed (i.e. the best driver can hardly outpace his opponent in a much slower car).

Did anyone look at volatility and break-out trading from the perspective of trading the US futures as an "intraday contrarian"? Some "seesawing" is really bad, there must be money in it... Useful tools might be candlesticks (difficult for intraday though), stochastic or R/S tools and retracement zones but I found them little helpful.

I have made good experiences with "tape reading" and Jackson Zones on Taiwan futures but not found the right way to apply to the S&P.

Any comment?

Tom

[akiri]

Twedler1

With respect ur comment

"I agree with akiri's opinion that the holy grail is in the trader and not in the system. Choice of system is still paramount to succeed (i.e. the best driver can hardly outpace his opponent in a much slower car)."

In trading it is the direction that is important, cause if ur doing it right even if in a slower car(making less money) ur still a winner. Unlike in racing there is only one "winner".

Just another reason to read Mark Douglas Book.

Kiri

[Trader Al]

Hi

Hi

Thanks Akiri for that trading system. I must try and test it out as soon as I can. I like simple trading strategies where you do not have to rack your brain analysing. I have analysed so much in past few months I feel almost burnt out. Its horrible testing and testing coming up with squat. I feel almost as if the standard TA indicators are decoys only there to confuse the new comer and drive him away from trying to trade in the markets.

I must say in my case that probably I am looking to be too safe. I have been trying to find a setup that works around 90% of the time so that I simply take the trade knowing that I can exit very fast if it doesn't work out virtually immediately. I think this is a natural way to try to learn to trade, but it is elusive. Maybe I should try to find some kind of system that is always in the SPindex either long or short which may not be super accurate on each trade, but by taking each trade you know you are pointed in general direction of the market and hopefully it will lead to something profitable?

Regards

Al

[whizz]

There are some detailed screenshots posted here describing entry and exit points using Esignal indicators:

http://share.esignal.com/groupcontents.jsp?folder=&picture=es%20friday%20afternoon1.png&groupid=48

http://share.esignal.com/groupcontents.jsp?folder=&picture=ES%2011-26-2.png&groupid=48

Indicators are just tools.
You can give someone a hammer, but that doesn't mean they can build a house with it. It took me two years to figure out how to trade properly, even though I had a poopload of tools from day one. Best thing to do is read about the psycology of trading in various trading books. Wish I would have listened to folks when they told me that years ago......it would have saved me a lot of money, and probably a lot of hair.....he he.

by the way, much of my trading is via 3 and 5 minute charts on the futures....I use the same setups (trendline breaks and centerline breaks on the indicators) on 30-60 minute charts to trade options. The principles are the same and work on any time frames. Best thing I can say is this: set something up, and watch it for a long time, until the information that you are given via 'indicators' becomes second nature to you. Then throw money at it.

It's a process of evolving towards what makes you comfortable. I have posted some charts of 'thoughts' regarding a dual stochastic setting based on patterns that I've seen....I did it for myself so that I can go back and see if my initial impressions were valid after spending a couple months watching those two stochastics settings. It's fascinating to see how one's initial impressions change after additional time spent watching them. I still stand by the comment that when the twin stochastics cross over the centerline at the same time it is a strong signal and worthy of a trade (probabilities), and when it lines up with other indicators, the probabilities increase. That's what it really comes down to......finding the best probabilities and then knowing how to manage a trade once you're in.

I know some traders that make bundles of money based on almost nothing because they know how to manage a trade, and others with all the tools in the world that lose money cuz they panic too often.

Cheers.

[Trader Al]

Thanks

Thanks Whizz for adding your comments.

The problem I have as a beginning trader is that I have actually spent months and months trying to read books, reports and also so lots of testing of ideas and still come up with no more that about 60% accuracy. I just feel it can't be this hardgoing.

Having a disciplined mind and all that is important but it is no use unless you have some kind of halfway decent trading plan or signals. I do not have these yet even. So I am scouring everywhere I can to find something workable. I have spent a lot of money on some really joke trading systems. It really is no joke There are so many people offering trading systems that cost a lot, but are not accurate or helpful enough to a beginner. Those "traders" who sell these trading systems should be ashamed of themselves for dragging beginners around in circles. I do not mind traders who keep their system secret and sell it as a blackbox if it is a good system, but to sell a garbage system on the basis that it "rocks" or is "superb" when it is not is unforgivable.

Al

[DionLoy]

Trader Al, there is no holy grail =). There are two ways to make money, either you have a high win/loss ratio and a decent profit/loss per trade, or a low win/loss ratio and a high profit/loss per trade.

Most of the successful traders that I know only hit about 30-40% win/loss, but let their winners run much faster than their losers.

There is no black box that will give you what you're looking for. If it existed, everyone would use it, and it would lose its effectiveness in no time. The market's too efficient to give too many people too much of an edge =).

[whizz]

I agree Dion,

backtesting numerous strategies (simple and complex) have shown that using PERCENTAGE of winning/losing trades as a guage is highly misleading.

I was completely blown away by how good cumulative totals were on trading strategies that gave successful trades of 30-40%.

When I tweaked and optimized some of these strategies to the tune of 40-50% the cumulative increased, but not by as much as I had thought it would......hence those % numbers are quite misleading.

I was also very surprised to find out that backtesting showed that trailing stops gave worse results vs hard profit limits (take profit at 'x' number of points), or on SAR (stop and reverse)....again, proving that what I THOUGHT should work better.....didn't. (of course, trading methods other than the ones I've been backtesting could give different results).

I've been having a great time refining my trading ideas through backtesting.......and learning that some of pre-concieved ideas were hogwash.

Cheers.

[akiri]

Neat Stuff Whizz

Whizz

U got some neat stuff in those links. Guess I have to explore those indicators. Did u code the indicators like Blau and others etc.? Could not find them in my list.

Kiri