Fear & Loathing In Trader Hell

[KingCAMBO]

Hello All,

After a long sabbatical from writing I am thinking about picking this column back up again - at least on a weekly basis - if there is enough interest then even nightly.

So where is that DOW these days... It is hard to imagine that we have picked up +1000 points since late November isn't it. So, where to now?



1. This is the first sell signal we have seen on a daily basis, in the past 20 sessions. We also have a breach of the Gann 1 x 1 support angle - which means that angle is for now going to act as resistance. The low wick on Friday's candle came down and kissed the 3 PB Short line, although we were able to close above that.

2. There is some immeadiate Fibonacci MA support at 10520.00

3. Even stronger support is the Gann 1 x 2 angle which is currently holding the line near DOW 10200.00

4. CCI has pretty much been in a flatline since mid January. And the flatline looks to be getting weaker.

The next important dates to look for a change or acceleration of trend will be the March 2nd-3rd window.

Good Trading All!
KingCAMBO

[KingCAMBO]

Also, taking a look at Gann's Square Of 9 for some additional insight we have these resistance levels based on the March 12th 2003 low of 7416.00:



And then these first four support levels based on our recent highs of 10753.00:



More L8tr!

KingCAMBO

[KingCAMBO]

OEX WRAP

Taking a stab at the OEX end of month for this week:



1.Long sideways trading range at a top. If this is not a distribution zone then I do not know what is.

2.Gann 1 x 1 angle holding overhead resistance at OEX 580.00 +

3.Fibonacci MA support tested this past week but held. Soon to be revisited?

4.Next hard support at the Gann 1 x 2 angle

5.CCI kissed it’s lowest levels in three months but the bears got smacked with a zero line rejection

PRINT THE FULL REPORT HERE

KingCAMBO

[arbifox]

trying to understand this . . .

just curious, I understand that you are taking several swing trades on the OEX, but typically, for a quarter, what type of return do you experience? I trade primarily ES E-Minis, always interested in understanding what type of returns are possible in other markets and other instruments.

Thomas.

[soylent]

Hey Cambo --

Hard to tell what you just said other than 'we could go up, down, or sideways'? I know that's often my prediction, too!

I have to agree w/ you -- the indicators right now are very ambiguous.

If INTC wasn't looking so weak, I'd be very bullish. But, since it's such a factor on the indexes, it worries me.

However, since I'm in this to make money and while 'flat' is a position, I'd still be going LONG...

Here's why:
1) We are barely into a WAVE 3 proper on the OEX weekly. While we could start a wave 4 now and all would be well w/ the elliott world, I just don't see it happening. PLUS, we don't show a divergence (weekly) / weakening.

2) The CCI Weekly is on-the-bounce line. As you noted, the CCI bounced on zero on daily. Next week it will have the opportunity to bounce the 14 and 34 trend lines.

3) I agree it looks like distribution, but I think there 'was' distribution and now people are re-loading their supplies a bit. I noticed on NQ we took out EVERY stop on Friday and couldn't push it lower. i.e. No 'momentum money' is left to sell... The people w/ stock are still holding strong.

4) Days 1-6 of the month are the strongest of the month.

5) Stealth buying. (My own indicator) Something I've developed that shows accumulation. It went into BUY mode last Thursday. In three years, the worst it has ever done is break-even / slight slippage w/ when you bought / commission. Only 2 of 3 stealth-buy signals are GREEN right now (and barely so), so I'm not commiting a lot of capital to this, but I went 50% long on Friday at the dip.

I wish it was more clear, too. But, that's what STOPS are for! <smile>

What is your 'major trend' thing you talk about in the PDF? Is that Wilders DELTA? Or, something else?

Thanks for the commentary -- I love reading peoples take on the market!

My take on OEX:
BUY.
Target: 576, re-evaluate how the market looks @ that time.
Stop: 563

p.s. I never trade OEX but why does it 'gap' all over the place all day?

[KingCAMBO]

Hi Thomas,

I am the same as you. I primarily trade ES as a job, but I do not like to "swing" ES because overnight margin can kill you if you wake up one day to find a news driven announcement, be it earnings etc...or Osamma has been killed or captured -- or has a new bomb and our address.

With OEX swings: I use RISK CAPITAL ONLY - that is my surplus from normal trading that I am willing to lose. OEX cannot be margined, and as far as rate of return the only way I would describe it is "coast to coast". There are fantastic profit opportunities, but only if you are both patient -AND- nimble. They can also move just as fast against you!

You have to be right on an OEX trade or you will just watch your time premium evaporate like the wicked with of the north.

The flipside of that scenario is, it is not unusual to see an OEX contract double or triple in fast markets.

The one other perk of OEX in my mind, is it is a very good hedge when you are wrong on your day trades.

Don't know if this is what you wanted to hear, but this is how I trade OEX, my style.
best,

[KingCAMBO

[arbifox]

I hear that . . .

Hey KingCAMBO,

Thanks for the insight, I always perk up when I see a chart that makes me feel like there are worlds out there that I have not yet discovered. I stick with my ES minis for now, and day-trading, it seems to keep me in enough suspense to keep reworking my theories, and I think it is probably the most formidable market to trade.

I read the previous post as well, how much credance do you give to CCI? I know all about Woody, and the CCI trading style, but do you find it usefull? I stick primarily to stochastics, MACD and Bollinger Bands. They have yet to treat me very badly . . . .

I will keep reading up on some of the stuff you present, it is a good read.

Regards,

T

[KingCAMBO]

Hi Soylent,

With regard to OEX -- what INTC reports, or does not report, or barfs up - and for that matter anything that is a "news item" - does not figure in to my thinking at all.

My OEX methodology is simply based upon the fact that TIME CYCLES repeat over and over and over again. Gann knew this, and plenty of his peers had figured that out too. That is how he made use of it for his own reasons.

I might offer up some different scenarios's from time to time - but if you check my record, I alway's take a position, admit to it FREELY - wrong or right, and live and die by it.

You will find nothing "Mohanish" about me in anything I have published in the past seven years.
Good trading!

KC

[KingCAMBO]

On CCI and Woodie

Hey T,

CCI in general, I do not attribute to Woodies CCI Club as having some profound new revelation to. Having said that, Woodie by reputation - is a damn FINE AMERICAN, and from what I hear a REALLY good guy.

He used to hang out with us back in the old days ( if this is the same woodie I am thinking of)

Anyway... My own unqualified read on CCI is this: It is BETTER then MACD hands down, in the sense that CCI does what MACD always failed to do. It gives you both an entry -AND- an exit.

I would back test the hell out of it and draw your own conclusions. I do not make much use of any oscillator these days since I am primarily concentrating on TIME CYCLES - but if I did choose one - Woodies CCI: I would defintely endorse. Also, some of his contributors are passing around some great educational articles you may want to read.

Cazart!
KC

[arbifox]

so where do I start???

KC,

If I wanted to learn all about CCI, Woody or otherwise, where is a good place to start? It just seems a bit too confusing, like everyone can spin some action into their idea of how they were right in their set-up.

As for Woodie, I know about the talkstox board, and I mostly follow there, but if you know of any other good sources, let me know. It is something I would like to learn about, just need the motivation to get into.

Thanks a million,

T

[KingCAMBO]

CCI resources...

T,

There is a really decent lesson out there somewhere in cyberspace pen named by some guy called "Buzz" - in it he outlines CCI in general and then talks about what he does as opposed to what Woodie does.

I am sorry but I do not have a URL for it. But someone in their organization surely does.

I also want to emphasize that there is NO oscillating indicator that I consider to be a LEADING indicator. But if I had to choose one...
KC

[soylent]

Arbifox: For CCI Info, do checkout woodies site (www.woodiesCCIclub.com). It's free. Hang out in the chat area for a day or so and watch the intraday action CCI. A few people do very nicely on ES, EURO, ER2, YM. Watch NickTrader for entry/exits. You'll learn a lot of patterns / what works.

KC: You nailed it on CCI. I love CCI for entry and switch to other indicators for trend.

On INTC: News/etc: I agree are useless. I didn't mean to imply what they say on Thursday will have anything to do w/ the stock. I meant: Look @ that chart! Technically, INTC looks abysmal. Below 50/100, 50 crossed below 100. Which is why we may have a massive rally as all the turtles are now short and will cover? (And, a wave-4 almost complete on weekly? If we can just turn this current decline into an A-B-C) Who knows... But, it's hard for the indexes to go UP w/o INTC because it's such a big portion of the cap.

Finally: Sorry -- didn't mean to even HINT your work is not solid or mohanish (what is that?). I DO enjoy your posts -- just tossed in my own observations for no apparent reason...

I still have a lot to learn. And, watching experienced traders helps.

Thanks KC -- keep up the great posts!

[arbifox]

thanks for the info . . .

Soylent,

Thanks for the starting point, but I suppose I also need a "rules section", like what to look for, otherwise I am just looking at a signal with no idea what I should be observing. I will check out woodie's chat area, I have never heard of the one you suggested. I will go from there, I know there are a couple of stickies on his general ideas. I will start my reading.

Thanks both of you, it helped a lot.

T

[KingCAMBO]

The Morning Call

Morning Guys,

I have put up a complimentary copy of my MORNING CALL so you all can compare it to the other ones that are out there. Print it out and enjoy.

Good luck today everyone!

KingCAMBO

[KingCAMBO]

Square Of 9 OEX 568.00 resistance - Do not pass go, Do not collect $200:



Today is the second day in the 3 day cycle and it looks like we got a SELL OBJECTIVE made first. For now anyway.
More L8tr,

KC