How Am I Doing?

[cpatte7372]

Hello All,

I was up all night last night attempting to find stocks that would make me money over the next 3 to 5 days.

I found approximately 15 stocks that fit my pattern and 10 that I thought would definitely make me money if they followed my setup.

The stocks in the image are those that I paper traded today and if I were trading real money I still would have traded them. As you can see I would have made money on all apart from LACO and MCD(McDonalds).

My question is therefore, did I do good or is that just beginners luck? Would you guys have had similar results?

I really don't know how to rate myself. I think I was successful because they could have all tanked, but they went the way I thought they would based on my setup.

I would love to hear your opinions. Did you guys have just as good-a-day?

Cheers


Carlton

P.S.
If you're interested in my system I'll gladly share it with you - but as I'm a newbie you most probably won't be interested.

[KuJaX]

A little more information about how you picked these stocks?

Well, you ask if you did well or not, I see some pretty green numbers there, so I would say you did well. Do this and if you see a consistant result, go for it. Remember, trading consistantly doesnt mean all wins!

[cpatte7372]

Kujax,

Thanks for responding mate.

I hope I'm just as good when I start trading with real money

Cheers

Carlton

[soylent]

Hi Carlton --

STOCK SELECTION:
Well, that is an interesting group of stocks. I looked at about 5 of them trying to see why you bought. But, I couldn't find a solid TA reason. Maybe you just looked for strong stocks with a price that goes above the previous days close/high near the 52-week high on strong volume?

Anyhow, I'd love to see how you select stocks!

And, my only note to you: STOCKS move WITH the market! If today had been a down day, these stocks may not have faired as well. But, as Kujax points out; Not everything needs to be a winner. Just use your stop-losses well!

How'd I do today?
Overall, I was up 27% for the day, but I'm ridiculously leveraged and frequently experience 10-20% drawdowns while waiting for my setups to take hold so it's a 'normal' day for me...

My short term (1-3 week) holdngs were:
QQQ (bought last Thursday)
Why: Trend change to up. Highly leveraged.

TACT (bought last Wednesday)
Why: CCI setting up and high volatility and near support. Straight margin.

INTC (bought last Thursday)
Why: Wave 4 completed on WEEKLY (maybe not to AGET standards but I can set a tight stop this way). Trend change in SEMI's & market & way oversold. Highly leveraged.

NTE (bought last Monday)
Why: CCI setting up weekly/daily. IBD list. PEG < 1. Sitting on support. Leveraged.

I usually have more inventory but I got stopped out of nearly everything 2 weeks ago. (ORCL, EPIC, DHB, a few others...)

Look forward to reading how you select stocks.

[cpatte7372]

Soylent,

Excellent feedback mate.

I select stocks based on four criteria:

New 52 Week Highs.

52 Week with Relative Strength.

Increase in Institutional Ownership.

One month high volume gainers.

I select stocks from within each criteria that fit Elder Triple Screen Setup.

A little unscientific, I know. Got to start somewhere, right?

I take your point about when Markets move stocks also tend to move with it. However, what market are you referring to? S & P? Or do you include all the indexes when you say "Market"

Cheers

Carlton

[fabrizio]

cpatte7372

Really Well Done

Scenario, Intuition, Plan, Method and acting.

I do not enter into details but as soylent note , what count is that your stock picking was succesfull.

And the P&L is positive.

Trader like Boxeur : nothing gives you more win attitude that win.

Well done again

[soylent]

> A little unscientific, I know. Got to start somewhere, right?

Not at all -- very scientific!

If you have a system that works -- great! Just be sure to back test, back test, back test. Use eSignal REPLAY or write code to test your strategy. (I know that's more difficult since you are using external fundamentals (mutual fund accumulation).

In my first few months as a trader, I developed plan-after-plan of what to buy. I'd finally develop the backtesting code and discover that my system doesn't work 'longer term'. Or, it didn't work on all stocks... At one point, I thought I had the holy grail (a very interesting system that looked for stochastic oversolds / close above the previous day high -- that actually works VERY VERY well but then I discovered how that related to the overall indexes and AGET and found other ways... In particular, I found the close-above on an oversold created a very high propensity for a sell off the following day... That was the downfall of THAT system.) But, anyway, I digress...

What you have developed looks very promising. A plan -- any plan -- if executed well will produce predictable results. I think you have a promising setup.

As for my comment on INDEXes:
Indexes, in general, move together. I like to look at NQ/QQQ because it demonstrates the most volatile of the indexes. (i.e. it's CLEAR when we are going up / down). The S&P behaves more calmly but you can't always tell if we are in distribution or accumulation from looking @ price.

I was looking @ your picks and they pretty well ignored the overall market indexes -- so, maybe your plan is a fairly neutral strategy that doesn't participate in general market movement? I'd just look for that as part of your planning.

Best of luck! I think you have a good plan.

[fabrizio]

Best of luck! I think you have a good plan.

Quoting soylent and adding: be proud because you did it all by yourself.

Ciao Carlton

[cpatte7372]

You guys are great.

Thanks ever-so-much guys for your comments - I truly mean it.

I have posted nearly 500 new threads and I think these comments may be best replies I have had.

My confidence has been boosted.

It really is like a little family in this forum.

I hope one day I'll be able to help others in this group.

It has been suggested that I'm whats called a 'Momentum Trader' I look for stocks that are already on the move and then jump on board.

Going to take you're advice and try to write code that will enable me to back test.

Once again thank you very much.

Cheers

Carlton

[soylent]

Carlton --

Glad to help!

I really hope your trading is successful.

Here's another thing I've found 'interesting': IBD. Have you looked at Investors Business Daily? Especially in your methodology -- IBD may be useful. They track stocks that are 'being accumulated' by mutual funds as one of their criteria.

A lot of their stuff is very-very high volatility. (i.e. STOPS are an absolute must! I have more-than-once lost 20% in one day on an UNLEVERAGED position because I didn't set a stop on an IBD stock... e.g. RCKY, CALM) (Why no stop: I was already up 30-50% on those positions. I thought I'd be 'quick enough' to enter a sell order but 'froze' when the time came to bail out (surely it will rebound -- this is way oversold...) Ugh! It hurts just the same because it changes your overall profit picture for the month. But, it has taught me to set trailing stops -- even if they stop is very WIDE. It forces me out...)

I've seen people write about STOPS as one of my first things in trading. But, you don't realize how critical they are until you've been through some nasty selloffs -- several, even. Being 'out' of a stock makes your thinking much more clear.

I say all this because I look @ some of your picks and they look GREAT but they are way above 'support'. Since you are looking @ small moves for profitability, a big sell-off-to-support would hamper your plan. Please use a STOP order. Even if you put it WAY far away from current price (e.g. under the low from 2 days ago is VERY far away but even 5% or some other hard-number would do), it will save you some day from a catastrophic loss.

-c

[cpatte7372]

Soylent,

Its funny, because I'm practicing initial stops and trailing stops as I write.

I wonder if you could shed some light on what I'm attempting to do.

I'm entering a trade by placing a 'buy stop'. This basically gets me into a trade when it reaches a certain price. At the same time I would like to place a 'sell stop' which would automatically kick in once my 'buy stop' was activated. I hope this making sense.

I attempted to do this with one of my paper trades and on that occasion my 'sell stop' kicked in before my 'buy stop' which effectively meant that I ended up shorting the stock when I actually wanted to go long.

Therefore, the question is this, is it possible to buy stock when a certain condition occurs after which sell the same stock (at the stop) if the stock decreases to a certain level? Or will I have to be at the computer waiting for the stock to appreciate to my buy level and then set the stop?

Again, I hope this makes sense.

Cheers

Carlton

[soylent]

Stop orders:
Some brokers offer 'contingent' orders. i.e. if price > $30.10, buy @ market (or, enter limit @ $30.00).

Some brokers offer 'one triggers other': If order exectuted, set stop lastPrice < 29.50.

I use OptionsXpress for my options/stocks and I can set orders like that.

[cpatte7372]

Soylent,

Thats cool.

I just wasn't quite sure if it was possible. However, when I finally start trading for real I think I'll be glued to the screen, so I'll be placing stops manually.

Thanks again mate.

Carlton

[soylent]

Go take a look @ OptionsXPress.

I think they will even let you 'papertrade' a pretend account. It could be a good way to start? Try it for a week / see how you do?

Anyhow: www.optionsXPress.com

I've found they are extremely reliable, excellent customer service, and 'reasonable' commissions.

-c

[cpatte7372]

Thats cool.

I check 'em out.

Thanks.

Carlton