Survey: Price for QQQ by Friday Apr 2

[soylent]

Last week, I ran a survey on QQQ (NQ) to see how accurate we could all predict the price of QQQ.

Our success: 0.

We had 8 votes for a down week, 2 for flat, 0 for slightly up and, 1 for strong rally.

The 2 'flats' were probably the most correct, but our overall % was for a down week.

So, lets do it again!

My prediction for next week:
Well, it's so hard to keep it the same for the whole week. But, I'm still looking for a DOWN week. My target is the same as it was before $33.50 for a bounce / completion of wave 3. Once we hit that target, we can rally. Will that happen next week?

I don't know -- but, I think we will not have another UP week!

All comments welcome!

[FibbGann]

My prediction was within .16 But, I do not paticipate in some forums as much.

Fibbgann

[soylent]

That's great Fibgann!

I saw your post last week on the rally off the bottom -- great call! I didn't see it setup until Wednesday for the big rally on Thursday. I almost choked on my coffee wednesday night when I realized 'ACK! I should have gone long!'

I find looking out one week can be so hard. I can often make an opinion for one day but with five days so many little nuances develop.

What are your thoughts on the coming week?

Thanks.

-c
p.s. Regarding not seeing it last week: Yes, that's why I moved the survey out here -- more folks to get involved! Thanks again.

[soylent]

This is where things get a bit tricky...

- We are in a clear downtrend channel on QQQ so that should act to bounce us lower before we can go higher.

- We have CLEAR divergence on the 30-min chart & need to rest for a bit before moving higher

But, will we bounce quickly and climb higher? Will we turn back around and finish the wave 3?

It will all be clear in a few days but for now, I don't have a clue. Other than: I'm STILL not looking to go long until we can set in a higher low / take out a swing high.

Tomorrow (Tuesday) should be a good go-short day -- but, I'd be watching $ADDQ and Q volume to see if it's going to be worthwhile...

Anyone with a clearer interpretation?

-c

[soylent]

On the daily, we are tagging this downtrend channel. We broke the fork on the wave 1/2...

Another poster (Gavishti) mentioned, perhaps we are entering a big 1/2 wave.

That would make a rather large rally this week quite possible.

Our poll results:
- 50% say we will be FLAT
- 80% say FLAT to DOWN

Well, this is how we started last week -- though, we went DOWN instead of up. Lets see how it unfolds.

-c

[soylent]

We've certainly blown past all expectations.

> $37. Well...

We are 0 for 2 on prognostication @ the 5-day level.

Our prediction was down to flat. One person said slightly up. I think > $37 was a clear rally.

[Gavishti]

If my guess is correct we just completed (or will by early Monday) the A leg of a 2 wave that started Mar 24. This being part of a much larger C wave that began Mar 5. Dates are for the SPX.

Given that I have been wrong before and that the jobs report Friday took me completely by surprise I would not make any trades on this guess. But it is a fun game.

[soylent]

Gavishti -

Yes -- that jobs report was huge...

a) I think Monday will be one of the largest rallys -- ever... (wave 1 blowoff)
b) Then, we will go flat / slightly up the rest of the week.
c) Then two down weeks (the wave 2)
d) Then a one month long rally. (wave 3) starting april 24...

I just now realized this when I looked @ the weekly chart. This would be an absolutely picture-perfect wave 4 on the weekly...

I posted a new survey...

-c

[gspiker]

Yes -- that jobs report was huge...

Remember, they often adjust these things one month later. But too, it is an election year, so by then there may be other "news" to keep the market up.

I really doubt there will be a rate increase before the election...and I think wallstreet knows this also.

Garth