Interesting Chart Patterns To Monitor In Coming Days...

[soylent]

From a technical perspective, I don't really like many charts right now. They could all go in any direction. Given that so many bulls are out there -- DOWN seems likely...

Though, someone (mutuals?) are ferociously buying the NQ 200-day moving average. If we manage to sell this off, there will be a lot of humbled mutual funds and it could turn into a beautiful drop... (Beautiful as in: I'm not long!) Especially as the 50-day rolls under the 200-day.

Though, ES has some room, it's not looking pretty.

-c

[MR]

Hi c,

Yes, copper is going lower. Profit-taking is in order. Your trade parameters sound like a good plan.

I scratched BBH Long for a quick loss. Actually wanted to reverse and go Short it because odds now high it will trade lower short-term. I don't think it will rally yet, but if it did, watch for today's gap to get covered, then trade down again afterwards. (only an 'ideal' scenario.)

Good luck this week, Marc

Originally posted by soylent
Marc --

Are you saying copper is going down? I agree. I'd be looking to get short down to 10377 area? (localized @ top, I see it starting a corrective phase?)

Also, weekly is lookling like it will take a long time to recover. It may be basing for a rally but ...

I'd look to get short around 12300 (short any rally) & ride it down. Stop above 12600?

BBH is looking pretty bad, too. Wouldn't want to short it yet -- but, it's starting to ripen.

-c

[MR]

Hi again 'c,

All I can say, is right now I am very comfortable being short, even if it is only paper trades. Ever single one of the ideas I have been working with is making money. For now that seems to be a good plan. -marc

Originally posted by soylent
From a technical perspective, I don't really like many charts right now. They could all go in any direction. Given that so many bulls are out there -- DOWN seems likely...

Though, someone (mutuals?) are ferociously buying the NQ 200-day moving average. If we manage to sell this off, there will be a lot of humbled mutual funds and it could turn into a beautiful drop... (Beautiful as in: I'm not long!) Especially as the 50-day rolls under the 200-day.

Though, ES has some room, it's not looking pretty.

-c

[MR]

Hi c,

Been paper trading short ESM4 since 5/4/04 hourly Type 1 Sell setup.

Plan of action today is to stay Short, monitor for any day-trade rally to add to this Short. Not ready to get out yet.

-marc

Originally posted by soylent
Though, ES has some room, it's not looking pretty.

-c

[soylent]

Hi Marc --

Yes -- ES looks like a good short. NQ is showing a lot of resistance to going down (and UP!)

Technicals say down which is forcing it lower but someone keeps buying it.

We have a labeled WAVE 5 on 60m now on NQ -- lets see if they can turn this back to the NORTH.

What's strange is looking @ UVOLQ / DVOLQ. It's been continuously selling all day but they can't push NQ lower.

hmmm...

-c

[MR]

Hi c,

Hate to admit it, but I haven't even been looking at NQ/ND, mostly time for individual ideas, and ES. Will take a look soon, thanks for reminders.

If I am correct, the general decline(s) are not over yet... any rally today, I still want to sell or stay short.

Still feeling confident HG Copper, wants to go lower.

[MR]

Anticipating US Dollar to be higher by end of summer. Starting to monitor for a safe Long entry, next good pullback (basis June contract). Decline below 9000 forced to stand aside and rethink trade logic.

[MR]

Lately, CME June J-Yen contract (JYM4) trending down, so starting to monitor for next good pullback; Forex J-Yen (JPY A0-FX) pushing up, monitoring now for next pullback.

GBPJPY A0-FX, interesting.

[MR]

If you see 'gaps' covered on daily time frame charts in the next week or two, consider monitoring for another wave of selling leading into Memorial Day long weekend holiday.

[pj909]

What is your read on AET? The daily is labeled a w4 BUT it looks like it's getting ready to re-label to w3 down.

[MR]

AET wave count help

PJ,

I think you are correct.

Referencing a quick look to AET monthly identifies a bigger Wave 4 down is realistic under this scenario. The monthly W4 projections and Wave 4 Channels are helpful too. Both point to a lower price being realistic.

Focus on this monthly time frame, where year 2000 low as beginning of Wave 1, then W2 as labeled at 6/1/01 area. This Wave 3 top label means a bigger, deeper W4 down is a realistic idea.

Hope this helps.

- Marc

[pj909]

Thanks Marcus,
It's good to check out your assumptions with another. I agree with you about things looking bearish. I've been noticing a lot of charts that are showing a Type 1 buy on daily, but the weekly (or monthly) looks like a w4 down. I always get into trouble when I try to "over read" the chart. Must be patient and wait for the right setup. Some of these (like KMRT and LXK) look like they might give a T1 sell on 60m. Anyway, as always you time and insight is appreciated.

[pq1]

I like this pattern for a possible rebound in $NDX

[MR]

be nasdaq careful pj

PJ,

Only saying this to help you, but the Nasdaq bottom isn't here yet. Be careful if you think it is the bottom. I am still finding a fair amount of Short ideas, and many starting to be Nasdaq type stocks. For example, did a paper trade Short @ 13.45 on PMCS this morning. (using a $1.25 stop loss) target is 10 area.

Marc

[MR]

I made a terrible mistake yesterday. Been paper trade Short ESM4 hourly since 5/4/04 (50% and Normal Ellipse arrival, Wave 4 at the time, T1S setup) and put in a trailing Stop just a little too close. Got Stopped out yesterday near the high. If I would have used a Fib Retracement calculation would still be Short today . Yesterday's high was a 38% retracement number I failed to see. Hence, trailing Stop placed too close. Been monitoring all morning for a rally to get Short again. Hard to believe even paper trading you could goof up like this. It doesn't look like I am going to be able to find a safe way to get back in. Am now on a 15 minute chart trying to get a quicker trade idea. What I really want is a position trade entry. (Only sharing this so you can learn from my mistakes -- Marc)