Interesting Chart Patterns To Monitor In Coming Days...

[MR]

Hi Jim:

I just sold 500 shares of WMB to raise some more cash. (only have 500 left now) I haven't bought Q yet. Kind of hoping waiting to see if it could trade down to $4.00 even (I like simple math). Either way, got my finger on the trigger and will buy a 1,000 shares some time today. Stop? Not totally figured out... probably a mental stop below 3.75 area? Working on the management ideas now.

- Marc

PS-- Shoot, Jim, if we are going to right, let's pretend we are fund managers and do more than $100k. I know a lot of AGET traders who are multimillionaires and big fund managers. Lets do more !!!!

[PRH]

Lunch time update.

We were filled on the AC stop - 39.82 - now at 39.92
We also bought CME on strength

Liquidated long lumber

No changes otherwise. Stops in place.

Take care.

PS> Marc, I have Q as a potential short, Stochastics false bar short position possible...

PRH

[MR]

Hi Phillipe!

How is weather your neck of the woods?

Stopped out my last 500 WMB shares. (profit is profit.) Totally out of it now. The daily chart still has a positive pattern which could develop into really nice Type 1 later. Will track it.

Appreciate heads-up, but still going ahead with plan... the false bar warning is encouraging for me here, but is why I am not loading up on this stock here, just a good nibble only.

It looks like Q hit $4.00 around 1:36. Unfortunately I was picking up lunch for our sick son. Waiting patiently still for $4.00 one more time today. (I shouldn't be so 'anal' sometimes, but for some reason I really like the even number.)


- Marc

[MR]

Phillippe,

How long you been in those Bean and Corn positions? Did you ever short wheat a while back? It had a similar pattern.

- Marc

[MR]

I gave up and just ended up buying Q. Cannot believe I am so stupid, fixated all afternoon on Q over a lousy 10 cents.
- marc

[PRH]

Update Dec 1, 2004.
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Stocks:
Existing positions:
ALK long - we move the stop up to 31.56 - first target 33.63

New positions:
AC long 39.82 - closed at 40 - stop 39.32 - target 42.89

We went also long CME - rocketed up - and sold it again higher. Definitely not for the faint of heart!

Not taken but mentioned:
R: jumped up 1.47 - this would have been a good one too!
GLK: inched up 0.09

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Futures:
Out of Jan Lumber at the open (340). Kept going up though. No complaints (entered long 328)

We covered Jan Soybeans at the Adv Get -3- target of 5306 (530.75) - currently flat.

We covered partly March Corn at 203. Still short 4 cars. More downside likely (imho).

Still long equity indices.

JOF5 did not trigger a short trade. CCH5 triggered but with little followthrough. No NY markets in my plan though. There you go.
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Tonight's scan gives the following result:
Stocks:
XTL Continuation trades:
FAF (First American Corp) and GGG (Graco) - see comments below

Buying with the strong trend:
BDK (Black and Decker)
GE (General Electric)

Among these, my picks would be FAF and BDK with buy levels 3 ticks above today's high and a limited risk of 0.75

However, after a big up day like today, there are non unexpectedly a large number of breakout stocks. Some from fairly flat levels, some from deep retracements. I would anticipate to see some minor consolidation and perhaps retracement. We are not taking any new stock position tomorrow for that reason.

Futures:
XTL Continuation:
FCF5 short
CLF5 short

We are not taking any new position ourselves and stay with what we have. Will monitor the March bonds and 10year notes for entry soon.

Called the broker office today to send check (1/3 of profits of November). Doing this every month keeps us disciplined. No discipline ----> no check.

All of the above is for entertainment only, not advice, trade at your own risk and the usual disclaimers.

Fair winds and following seas.

PRH

PS.: Marc: Weather still "warm" (for Minnesota). Snow last weekend, now melting. I read somewhere, "if you want adventure, spend a winter in Minnesota". We have not had real winters in recent years unlike in the 80's.
Short beans was entered on recent downturn at 548
Short corn was entered on break through (then) support.

[MR]

Hi Phillippe,

I took a few AGET notes on your positions:

ALK – Nice! Anticipating it will relabel to a Wave 3 in progress. If so, the current internal wave structure is still developing.
AC – nice XTL blue, continues. It is possible it could be a wave 5 extending, as labeled, but odds wave 3 will shift higher when more data bars get added. It should be labeled a W3 now in progress, my guess.
CME is perfect. XTL blue. If it were only cheaper price, I would take it and stay a while. T1B setups all variable time frames from 30 minute on up to daily chart.. Nice.
R – good momentum, XTL blue continues, worked well with a pivot-to-pivot ellipse application where short ellipse held. Could have traded the hourly nice with ‘A’ wave MOB and 6/4 DMA breakout. Internally labeled hourly correctly for a T1B setup too.
GLK – will track this one. Can see why you like it.
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Futures:
You do trade lumber very well.
Tell me if you agree with daily ND #F chart attached below.

JOF5 did not trigger a short trade. CCH5 triggered but with little followthrough. No NY markets in my plan though. There you go.
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Thanks for FAF,GGG, BDK, GE


Best wishes and good trading rest of this week,

Marc

[PRH]

Marc

Thank you for your comments. Your ND #F chart looks nice. Trend is up and prices broke through the MOB. We stay long indices.

Have a great day.

PRH

[MR]

Attached is some chart work I did up this morning on Qwest Communications (Q) this morning. It is to show visually some of the logic behind buying it yesterday. While it was not a Type 1 buy entry, I am prepared to buy a Type 1 if it does come later this month.

[MR]

General Electric (GE)

Attached here is a General Electric (GE) Type 1 buy setup triggered on the daily, cross-referenced with a 120 minute short-term similar setup chart. I am tracking this one to see if it dips into my aggressive late buy parameters shown on the chart. - MR

[MR]

I only had enough cash left to buy last month 200 shares of SIRI, but happy to have bought even that. My friend bought it at the same time and took profits. I told him it was going higher! - MR

PS- I am thinking of covering my AAUK position today for a loss, then will track for entry to get back in later at cheaper price. Either that, or BGO, as it is a cheaper price. I think I made a mistake buying a breakout, not a Type 1 buy setup. (Learn from my mistakes.... )

[MR]

crude oil (CL #F) update

Jim, here is an update on our Crude Oil comments earlier. See, anything can happen in a few months! - Marc

[MR]

I decided to just get out, taking about a $800 loss in AAUK. I think I made the mistake of buying a Wave 3 breakout without waiting for the traditional pullback or a Type 1 setup. I had even commented in an earlier post that we could see some profit-taking in gold soon, but bought this gold stock anyway? (It will probably go up now.) Will monitor now for a little bit more gold sector pullback, then figure out a way to earn the money back, plus a little more profit for the learning experience.

Forgive me for these little mistakes. I sometimes try too hard and that causes sloppiness. Just shows you that trading is more than doing good analysis. It requires discipline, patience, and sticking to a plan. (Wish I practiced what I preach.)

[PRH]

December 2, 2004 Update.

Interesting day. Let's look at the numbers.

Stocks:
ALK: 32.90 up 0.74 with intraday high 33.47 very near our initial target of 33.63. I like to tighten the stop further to 32.56
AC: 39.53 down 0.47. We will keep the stop at 39.32 (50cent stop). I would not be surprised to be stopped out.

Money management is tight: we raise stops aggressively. It is OK to be stopped out - and if entry parameters present themselves again - re-entry is only a mouse click away.

We also went long CME again and it shows on the 60min a XTL continuation buy signal. Not for the faint of heart! CME is a volatile stock.

Not taken but mentioned:
R: 54.55 down 0.56 - I would tighten the stop
GLK: Reversed down. In my parameters would have been stopped out.
FAF, GGG, BDK and GE mentioned yesterday, some broke out but gains if any would have been very small. I am glad we did not take any of these.

Futures:
Another March Corn was covered at 202.5 - still short 3 cars
Jan Soymeal was covered at the -3- Adv Get target of 154
We are still long stock index futures (Emini Dow and Emini Russell).

The trades for today mentioned yesterday would have been great:
FCF5 short would have been a great trade (XTL Continuation)
CLF5 short would have been a great trade (XTL Continuation)

As mentioned, we did not take any of these two, but it goes on to show that XTL Continuation trades are my favorite setup.

Tonight's scan shows no results for stocks or futures.

Discussion note:
We all know about the need of "Having a trading plan and to follow the plan" - ya sure, we have that. But... I discovered that having the trading plan neatly typed up and edited many times to a final version and finally printed out and laminated... makes a world of difference. Have the plan in writing. I have a written, typed up plan and I know it by heart. I find that having it printed out and memorized commits me to follow the plan and stay disciplined. This is the hardest part of trading. No emotions, only a boring plan, and a check from the clearing firm every month.

That's all I have folks.

All of the above is not advice, only education or entertainment, trade at your own risk, and all the usual disclosure.

I am attaching a few charts of trades not taken but great setups. Who took the FCF5 and CLF5 trade? I found the risk to be to great for my parameters, but upon reflection, one can buy a put option for such situations... or even a put and a call... Next time.

Fair winds and following seas.

PRH

[PRH]

Here is the crude oil chart and a strategy that we could have executed (but did not think about at the time) to capture the brisk downside move...
Other big moves today were happening in the currencies and metals. We can't follow them all, only a few markets (grains, indices, lumber, ...)

PRH