Interesting Chart Patterns To Monitor In Coming Days...

[MR]

Add... ET... to that list.... it needs to cover some of todays' gap first, then interested more in riding... the Wave!

[MR]

Earlier this year I was concerned the markets were setting up for a new downtrend. I even hedged 5% of my personal portfolio at the time buying a mutual fund that specializes in short positions. (I still own it, although worth $5 less; but is ok, account is doing ok overall.) There were all kinds of legitimate reasons behind this worry. I have tried to post updates here in this thread as conditions changed.

Now here is the current thinking.

I am no longer concerned about this being a big A-B-C, but now see-- for example in the Nasdaq-- good odds of the Weekly trend up continuing. Hence, is why I have been posting I am now fully invested Long biased again.

Attached is a NQ#F weekly and monthly chart. Notice in the monthly chart the current longer-term rally has not even retraced 25% up yet, which means it has room to still work higher in the near-term before it encounters more major selling pressures again.

The election is over. Energy prices are retracing from previous highs. US Interest rate increases are very small and only bringing things back to equilibrium. Some inflation concerns have dropped (other commodity prices besides energy costs) Dollar weakness is a concern, but some US manufacturing exporters are not complaining too much.

Stock market prognosis for the remainder of this year seem good. (caveat-- unless energy prices rally strongly higher back to recent highs or above, then a wall of worry returns.)

Next January 2005 money managers will most probably go back to worrying about the future. For now, it is time to enjoy the current market strength, and to get ready to enjoy the coming holiday season.

(...or, this is my very best guess at least for now?)

[MR]

Jim,

It may only be wishful thinking, but monitoring Crude Oil (CL#F daily) decline to see if it can push
price back to $40 lower range before December? Maybe a pipedream. Technically is possible.

marc

Originally posted by MR
- Posted: 09-24-2004 10:27 AM
Jim,

. . . The way crude is going, it could hit $50 within a week, but by the end of this year be back to $40. Don't give up on $40 yet!

Take care,

Marc

[jims_id]

Hi Marc:

You didn't hear me blow off my mouth last week because I was on another vacation. It sure is nice to get a break from this stuff every now and again.

Don't have much of a clue re: crude, Mark, except to say that I think the hourly chart shows hidden weakness, whereas the the daily chart is showing hidden strength. We'll see how she shakes out.

I have a question for you, though. What would you give the odds that this recent runup in the indices is a "B" (with "A" starting early this year and ending October or August, depending on which index you look at). I'm getting alot of "anecdotal" feedback from friends that they loaded the boat last week after they were sure the coast was clear. I hate hearing that when I'm long.

Good luck my friend.

[MR]

Jim,

Always good to hear from you. Hope your vacation was a quality one.

I will have to think longer on your question before I answer it. Before I answer, could you tell me what your friends mean when they "loaded the boat last week?" Did they do puts or shorts or something, and in what sector or index? Mostly curious. You say you are mostly long? When you say "A" and "B" wave, do you mean daily or weekly and what index(es)? Am asking just so I answer as best as possible. (I will reflect on it a while before I get back here, as I would want to be as helpful as possible.)

Take care, Marc

[jims_id]

Hi Marc

Marc:

By loading the boat I meant they went heavily long in the stock market and mutual funds **last week**. That may prove to be a very profitable strategy for all I know. And, of course, who knows what you can believe when it comes to a person talking about an investment posture. But the guys I spoke with gave me cause to pause because there track record is, shall we say, a bit sketchy ( they were decimated when the bubble burst in 2000). I know it's kind of a silly "indicator", nevertheless I'm concerned.

Here's what I meant about the abc comment. Just for example, suppose the S&P cash completed a big wave 3 on March 5 '04. Let's further suppose that wave A of 4 completed itself on
August 13 '04. What are the odds that we are trending up in a wave B of the 4rth wave, with a wave C to the downside directly ahead to finish the W 4? I'm not suggesting that is the case, mind you, but I'm just trying to consider all of the angles. Hell, for all I know this thing may go orbital from here and make a run for 1400.

Good luck Marc.

Jim

[MR]

Jim,

For the remainder of this year I, too, am very comfortable "loading up the boat" in the US stock market. For example, I had been going in and out of the stock market in the months prior to the election, but just before November I became fully invested too.

You know me. I am a very cautious person. I am always trying to find any surprises waiting around the corner.... but for now I only see Wave 3's building on many stock charts. I have not seen this in a while in say, for example, the Nasdaq tech sectors, and many other sectors. (see my Nasdaq weekly and monthly chart posted a few posts below this one.... )

I think there is still a buying frinzy to come that we have not yet seen.

Unfortunately, at this point of the game I can only see about 3 months into the future with great confidence.

But, for now, I say "ride the wave" and participate in some goood trading times. If I where a money manager I can find many, many things to invest in right now.

If you ever see NY Crude Oil drop below $40 in the next few weeks, I think you will see the US stock market make an even stronger push higher before the end of this year.

I will try to get back to your question as soon as possible about the Elliott Wave technical possibilities. I really am going to have to do some serious reflecting to better figure out next years potentials.

For now, I think your friends are right.

Take to you more later my Ohio buddy, Marc

[jims_id]

Marc

Marc:

Thanks for your response. Your analysis is always insightful and very much appreciated. Are you still in the Akron area? If so, maybe we can get together for a beer sometime.

I still can't get over the fact that Akron was the home of the greatest trading software ever created. Thee should have been more publicity about that in the local paper...but they are on a constant snooze pattern.

Best regards,

Jim

[MR]

Hi Jim,

I apologize for not being able to answer your post sooner. Yes, still in the neighborhood. Will PM you soon with directions. How long has it been since we last saw each other? Ten years?

Hey, Jim, not to change the subject, but I haven't changed my mind about a 'Christmas rally' potential. I did, however, have to lock in some recent profits. Trailing stops got hit today.

I reinvested these gains into a very aggressive momentum energy stock play. I don't want to talk about the stock publically since I deviated from AGET rules in this one and it is a very aggressive idea.... If it works out, will share later some of the logic.

There was a good hint of profit-taking starting today. Thanksgiving coming, good recent profits to preserve... I can see institutional money managers being forced to protect positions and profits until the new trading month begins, December.

Overall market weakness next week might be a good for setting up possible Type 1's, Wave 4 pullback, you think? Start identifying your next best opportunities if that happens.

If you (or anyone else) see anything, post your idea in the AGET forum. It would be nice to be able to compare notes.

Well, gotta go.. May the trades all go your way this next month!

Your Ohio buddy, Marc

[jims_id]

Hi Marc

Will do Marc. I've got a list of potential buys I will post at what I think is a propitious time. Hope this wasn't the top.

Regards to all.

Jim

[MR]

True story....

... am a little bummed out today....

I loaded up on WMB last week.

An hour later I came across SIRI,
but trading money mostly tapped out,
so decided to wait for dip. The only dip...
was me! It has gone a $1.50+ higher since.

I liked both charts because they are
exhibiting major Wave 3 tendencies
in a still sustainable near-term trend.

The lesson here, always save a little
"ammo" for other possibilities.

Still making money, just not as much!

Bummer.

[MR]

Very little is mentioned about how the merger of K-Mart and Sears benefits MSO stock.

[MR]

I still own all the WMB shares I bought last week. I did something I very rarely do, I loaded up on just one stock. Because the risk was so great at the time, I could not discuss it with others because if I was wrong, I was going to have to eat it quickly, and I did not want to be responsible for others potential loss.

I can comment now because I am
feeling better about this big gamble.

Let me review some of the previous comments on the subject of Natural Gas. Then bring you up-to-date with Advanced GET charts, the logic behind this trade idea.

Below is what I posted back a month ago, October 27, 2004.

[MR]

Back then, since no one responded with ideas, I took a day and researched this industry myself, collecting a list of stock symbols in this industry. I even talked to a friend of mine who use to work for Fidelity and really knows stuff, pumping him for information on this industry.

Below is a copy of a NG list I made in eSignal to track this sector better, and explore their stock charts for good AGET ideas.

[MR]

Well, I took my own advice, and researched and tracked some of these stocks. I noticed the February NY Natural Gas daily chart had an attractive Type 1 Sell setting up for a very aggressive trader. (Remember the W1/W4 overlap rule? The only thing negative was a bad PTI, but a very good risk/reward setup)

Today, NGF5 took a very nice, strong rebound up after a month of declining, which is exactly what I said you and me should be watching for... as it would be setting up a good future Type 1 buy setup opportunity.....

(see NGF3 chart below)