Interesting Chart Patterns To Monitor In Coming Days...

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$TNX 10Y INTEREST RATE

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ZF #F

Time & Price

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SIRI

IS TIME TO GO UP ?

[Catano]

Hi Marc,

where can I read you? Are you in another Forum?

Gruß Catano

[MR]

Market Correction Warning

To my old Advanced GET/ Elliott Wave
theory friends and buddies....

It has been a long time since I posted
here but I felt a loyalty to many of my
long lost friends to warn you this stock
market correction is bad news. Be
very, very, very careful!

For example, my analysis suggests the
DJ Industrials may be heading to 6,500
to 6,000 if things keep gettin out of
hand here. For the next two weeks
monitor to see if it can bounce back up
once it hits 7,900 area, or the previous
2002-2003 lows around 7,200 area.

If I can help in any other way I will try
to come back and post later.

Sorry I have not been able to post for
a long time but I have been extremely
busy doing other things. Best wishes
to you all and hope we can chat more
again soon.

Sincerely,

Marc Rinehart

[gspiker]

Hi Marc,

It's good seeing you name again, I always enjoyed reading your posts.

I hope all is going well. Feel free to PM me and let me know what you have been up to.

Garth

[MR]

Hi Garth,

Sorry I cannot stay long but, yes, it is also really nice to see you again!

Been pretty busy the past year and a half working really hard so we can pay for our one son in a private college and next year will have the expense of two kids in in college so there isn't the free time of the past available to come here.

I have really missed you and our other mutual AGET community of friends. I hope to get more time to come here more often in the future. Have really enjoyed our conversations of the past and am sure we will continue to talk more in the future.

Well, gotta go again. Only time for one more post and back to rat race.... My God bless and your family, and may you have a have a very good week!

Sincerely,

Marc

Originally posted by gspiker
Hi Marc,

It's good seeing you name again, I always enjoyed reading your posts.

I hope all is going well. Feel free to PM me and let me know what you have been up to.

Garth

[MR]

Re: Market Correction Warning

I wanted to update and better clarify what I meant in my early October warning post...

When I posted the warning in October I was trying to warn the longer-term investor-- not the day-trader or the short-term swing trader. Short-term traders can make money either direction at any time. Long-term buy-and-hold investors do not have quite the flexibility.

Today is election day, November 4, and we continue to stabilize off October lows. Today we are seeing what I think is a market ready to rebound more bullishly after the elections. This would be fantastic if we could see more of a rebound in coming days. And, after working on some chart work, I can honestly see, for example, the DJ Industrial capable of working back up to 10,000 to 10,500 resistance soon.

However, does that mean our Bear market is over? No, I really don't think so. That is where my warning comes in. I want my old term friends to keep perspective. It may be months before we can say with higher surity that the October lows were the end of this Bear market. It is just too soon to predict this kind of thing.

From my very best Elliott Wave theory guess, longer-term may be in some sort of a wave 4 complex correction, not the end of a 3-4-5 decline. Secondly, my analysis suggests we have not yet tested yet the longer-term major monthly or weekly supports that most institutional traders can identify which makes the current October lows a little suspect. Thirdly, we do not yet see any 5/17, 5/35, 10/70 Elliott "price oscillator: divergence anywhere on a monthly, weekly or daily index charts which also suggests we may not be out of the woods yet as it relates to this Bear market decline.

Those numbers I quoted in my last post may still be obtainable under those perspectives. That is what I meant when I said be very careful.

It is next to impossible for the fundamental problems we are currently experiencing to go away in a matter of one or two months. From what we can tell right now the higher we go the next two weeks to two months the easier it is for people trapped with paper losses to recover some of those losses and have one more chance to get out before the negativity returns early in 2009. That is what I was warning about.

Originally posted by MR
To my old Advanced GET/ Elliott Wave theory friends and buddies....

It has been a long time since I posted here but I felt a loyalty to many of my long lost friends to warn you this stock market correction is bad news. Be very, very, very careful!

For example, my analysis suggests the DJ Industrials may be heading to 6,500 to 6,000 if things keep gettin out of hand here. For the next two weeks monitor to see if it can bounce back up once it hits 7,900 area, or the previous 2002-2003 lows around 7,200 area.

If I can help in any other way I will try to come back and post later.

Sorry I have not been able to post for a long time but I have been extremely busy doing other things. Best wishes to you all and hope we can chat more again soon.

Sincerely,

Marc Rinehart

[MR]

Updating past two previous charts... Wed 12 Nov 2008 3:28pm NYT--

The market has not shown any strength since the election. It is approaching a daily chart triple low test.

The best scenarios off these lows: (1) lows hold and we springboard a rally, (2) we hold and rally but
stay contained in a tight trading range, (3) we eventually work lower and this becomes a more clear
a-b-c correction with a Major Wave 3 still in progress.

[MR]

Seeing some internal 3-4-5 W3 divergences... (Dec 10)

Updating past three previous charts... Wed 10 DEC 2008 12:22pm NYT-

Seeing some internal 3-4-5 W3 divergences... (Dec 10)

I wanted to update my AGET friends to the possibility some stocks in the following groups are showing internal 3-4-5 Wave 3 divergences in daily charts-- suggests we may be building for forms or types of Wave 4 correction rallies in these groups-- such as Mining, Water Transportation, Coal, Iron/Steel, Natural Gas Energy, some Gold.

The market is not dynamic right now so it may require a great deal of discipline and patience and conservative entries to try and take advantage of this possibility, but with many of these stocks very very oversold and cheap, it might be worth tracking more closely this month. Don't chase anything... if it becomes cheap again, might be interested then for short-term opportunities mostly)

[MR]

If the Senators Vote down an Auto Industry Loan...

Thursday 11 Dec 2008--

If the US Senators vote down the Automotive Industry loan, I will change my vote to more downside this month than upside.

[MR]

Re: Market Correction Warning

Originally posted by Marc Rinehart back in October '08... "Market Correction Warning"
- Posted: 10-09-2008 06:50 PM
....Be very, very, very careful! ....my analysis suggests the DJ Industrials may be heading to 6,500 to 6,000...

March 24, 2009 Stock Market UPDATE-- October 8, 2008, I issued a warning the Dow Jones Industrial Average was going to eventually hit either 6,500 or 6,000. On March 6, 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally tested the first target at 6,500 when it traded down to 6,469.95 low. It took five months but it did make a new low.

Now many are asking, "is this the Bear market bottom?" While I felt we should have a good bounce because of Short covering before March expiration, I am trying to answer that question myself. With all this political mess going on with no absolute historical precedent, things are more complicated than ever before.

If you can give me a little more time to analyze in greater detail-- say until this weekend-- I will try to post another update that might have something meaningful for you to read.

Sincerely, Marc Rinehart

PS-- I want to sincerely apologize to those people who sent me a Private Message (PM) over the past several months. I did not see your messages until today because your messages were linked to an old email address I have not looked at in months. I will try to check that email address more often. I honestly have been incredibly busy the last several months. Again, I sincerely do apologize for not responding to your PM. It was unintentional.

[MR]

Market Update (6 April 2009)

Market Update (6 April 2009)

After two weeks of reflection and analysis, I don't think this is "the bottom" in the Dow Jones Industrial Average many longer-term investors would like to see. However, I think the current February bottom can hold for the spring months, potentially into the early summer. That is about the best guessing I can make at this stage of this Bear market decline.

If the AGET daily chart Elliott Wave is correct in $INDU, odds favor either a possible minor, intermediate or larger major Wave 4 rally is now in progress.

The best scenarios for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:

1) Short-Term: Will 8,000 resistance hold for the next two weeks? The harder it is for 8,000 to 8,100 to be broken through, the better the odds will be you can see a bigger pullback before the end of April. Odds favor this pullback would quickly pullback approximately 50%, to as low as 75%, if the advance since the February bottom starts to stall here. We will be buying this pullback and trying to get 100% invested.

2) Near-Term: Monitoring to see if the market does not pullback but keeps inching towards 8,500 resistance, or higher 9,000 area. I would be surprised if this rally can sustain a move above 9,500 to 9,7500 before it has a major pullback.

The higher $INDU goes without a serious pullback over the next 2 months, the more I will be seeking out the very best opportunities to eventually consider going Short at the right time and price.

For now, buying a dips seems to still work for very aggressive traders who are maintaining tight trailing stops to protect those new trades. If we get no pullback this strategy will continue to work. The conservative trader still seems to desire a bigger pullback and will miss out if this happens. They will make their money later when they will eventually have better chances to sell into the higher resistance areas.

[skirmantas]

Thank you,
I would agree we are in w4 on weekly and seems we have some more room to rise - Elliot oscilator is not at 90% yet and we have MOB above at 9500 and other above 10000.

[MR]

Re: Market Update (6 April 2009)

Friday, 17 April 2009 Update--

The US stock market continues to hold well. Yesterday the DJ Industrial Average closed above 8,100 and is inching higher today. Odds continue to favor bulls can maintain continue and will be buying on dips to push back higher near-term. When we get to higher resistance levels we will re-evaluate for any possible or potential reversals at that time.

Today's Special-- NY Crude in possible daily bullish pennant formation with breakout potential very high. A breakout would attract buyers. We favor certain select energy stocks or ETF's at this time because of this behavior.

Originally posted by MR
Market Update (6 April 2009)

After two weeks of reflection and analysis, I don't think this is "the bottom" in the Dow Jones Industrial Average many longer-term investors would like to see. However, I think the current February bottom can hold for the spring months, potentially into the early summer. That is about the best guessing I can make at this stage of this Bear market decline.

If the AGET daily chart Elliott Wave is correct in $INDU, odds favor either a possible minor, intermediate or larger major Wave 4 rally is now in progress.

The best scenarios for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:

1) Short-Term: Will 8,000 resistance hold for the next two weeks? The harder it is for 8,000 to 8,100 to be broken through, the better the odds will be you can see a bigger pullback before the end of April. Odds favor this pullback would quickly pullback approximately 50%, to as low as 75%, if the advance since the February bottom starts to stall here. We will be buying this pullback and trying to get 100% invested.

2) Near-Term: Monitoring to see if the market does not pullback but keeps inching towards 8,500 resistance, or higher 9,000 area. I would be surprised if this rally can sustain a move above 9,500 to 9,7500 before it has a major pullback.

The higher $INDU goes without a serious pullback over the next 2 months, the more I will be seeking out the very best opportunities to eventually consider going Short at the right time and price.

For now, buying a dips seems to still work for very aggressive traders who are maintaining tight trailing stops to protect those new trades. If we get no pullback this strategy will continue to work. The conservative trader still seems to desire a bigger pullback and will miss out if this happens. They will make their money later when they will eventually have better chances to sell into the higher resistance areas.