Interesting Chart Patterns To Monitor In Coming Days...

[MR]

Re: Re: Market Update (6 April 2009)

Forget the Friday Crude Oil comment.... NY Crude broke out but to the downside this morning. This breakdown now puts energy futures back on the defensive. We haven't bought anything yet... this breakdown means we will stand aside longer now and monitor to see which lower supports can now hold.

Originally posted by MR
Friday, 17 April 2009 Update--

Today's Special-- NY Crude in possible daily bullish pennant formation with breakout potential very high. A breakout would attract buyers. We favor certain select energy stocks or ETF's at this time because of this behavior.

[MR]

Market Update (6 April 2009)

We felt for while now the longer DJ Industrial could not trade above 8,100 to 8,000 resistance the greater the odds would be a bigger pullback could occur. (See previous couple posts ago) When 8,100 was taken out late last week we assumed it meant the recent 6 week bullishness was going to stretch higher to 8,500. Today we traded immediately below 8,000 again. Maybe it was too early to abandon the idea the market was due for a bigger pullback soon. We would be buyers if a 50 to 62% or even a 75% support can hold on the daily chart.

Originally posted by MR
Friday, 17 April 2009 Update--

The US stock market continues to hold well. Yesterday the DJ Industrial Average closed above 8,100 and is inching higher today. Odds continue to favor bulls can maintain continue and will be buying on dips to push back higher near-term. When we get to higher resistance levels we will re-evaluate for any possible or potential reversals at that time.

[MR]

Re: Re: Re: Market Update (6 April 2009)

Below is current chart of NY Crude Oil....

Originally posted by MR
Forget the Friday Crude Oil comment.... NY Crude broke out but to the downside this morning. This breakdown now puts energy futures back on the defensive. We haven't bought anything yet... this breakdown means we will stand aside longer now and monitor to see which lower supports can now hold.

[MR]

DJIY Update (20 April 2009)

Below is current Dow Jones Industrial Average daily chart from around 30 minutes ago...

Originally posted by MR
We felt for while now the longer DJ Industrial could not trade above 8,100 to 8,000 resistance the greater the odds would be a bigger pullback could occur. (See previous couple posts ago) When 8,100 was taken out late last week we assumed it meant the recent 6 week bullishness was going to stretch higher to 8,500. Today we traded immediately below 8,000 again. Maybe it was too early to abandon the idea the market was due for a bigger pullback soon. We would be buyers if a 50 to 62% or even a 75% support can hold on the daily chart.

[MR]

Late last week we saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average trading above 8,100 and staying above that price for at least two days now. To, to us, is a signal we will work higher until we can find the next resistance zone strong enough to hold the advance. In addition, NY Energy futures have followed through with more strength since our last post and is acting better.

Last Friday, May 1, we noticed some rotation of more money going back into two lagging groups, Dry Shipping and Coal. We also saw some money flowing into other up and down groups, such as mining, some select energy, chemical and steel stocks. We established some more positions in those areas. Here are some symbols we mentioned being attracted to Friday: PCX, JRCC, DRYS, CLF, USO... couple weeks earlier SWN, FCX, GS, ZNH, AKS.... to name a few areas of interest.

Bottomline, even under the worse case scenario it appears the bulls can regain control on any good pullback for the month of May is our guess. There still are a lot of cheap stocks out there that have not fully participated in the recent stock market rebound. Some money is filtering back into the laggers it seems.

[MR]

SOME "OBSERVATIONS".....

Solar or related (and wind) stocks continue to experience buy rotation back into ever since First Solar's (FSLR) positive earnings. Stocks like FSLR, CSIQ, WFR, STP, LDK, CY, AMAT, TSL, AKNS, SOLF, CSUN, YGE.... AMSC, OC, TNB,

Noticed about a week ago the three Chinese Energy ADR's doing well... CEO, PTR, SNP. Today they are leading again.

Several Chinese ADR's in addition to those above also keep holding their own.

Energy holding will with NY futures acting well since late last week. Wondering also if Natural Gas is finally trying to base out? First time in a year and a half finally am interested in this area.

RIMM, BIDU, GOOG, AAPL... continue to act very well... watching for next good pullback. RIMM recently made a breakout move.

Wondering if gold/silver are finally basing out enough to stage more of a rally near-term after about a two month consolidation phase?

Back on April 28 I said I really liked SWN. It made a breakout move, consolidated, and then Friday closed up strongly again. I still really respect the pattern and would be very interested in buying or adding to it on the next good dip.

Ford (F) is getting ahead of itself and is due for a pullback in May. The way it is acting lately it is becoming a clear favorite for succeeding and money is clearly flowing back into it. Long-term players continue to add Ford to their portfolios on good pullbacks.

If GM manages to wiggle its way out of bankruptcy protection the auto industry could become a major bottom with lots of money flowing back into it. Is a very big gamble at this stage... which is why I am under the impression once some good news confirms no bankruptcy move is going to happen in June, this industry is setting up for a powerful rebound move... (CAVEAT-- if bankruptcy protection happens for GM, expecting or anticipating a very negative reaction and finally a our bear market pullback setup.)

A friend of mine really likes CME and ICE. As a more conservative trader I agree, but only waiting for a breakout move to confirm....

OIH has made a breakout move and is going to be easier to buy dips with appropriate risk/reward strategies. USO is lagging but, as of last Friday it now looks attractive for cheaper play. RIG, DO, etc is picking ups steam.

Visa (V) is attractive on a pullback to the breakout of last week....

About a month or so ago I said I liked some of the cheaper energy stocks I found at the time with a search... I still like OIH, KWK, NXY, HLX, USO....

Here is a list of Symbols I said I liked today... in general (the gold/silver because I was wondering if the two month consolidation was almost over?) gg, auy, gss, iag, iau, nem, sa...... energy nat gas... CRZO, chk, SWN, BEXP, XEC, .... MMR, PQ... DVN, APA, rd...mro, TSO, vlo, wnr, hoc.... chinese; coal, YZC.

I said I liked Coal and Water Tranportation as laggers starting to show more buying and I bought little positions in DRYS, PCX, CLF because of impressions. (I loaded up GS back in April as well.) They continue to do well since that observation.

I don't have enough money to buy everything I am attracted to so I will share with you other symbols I have liked and continue to like going into early May-- CMC, EMC, BWA, ISRG, QSII, AMSC, GD, MLM, $SOX, FLS, WINN, WIN, MHK PNRA , WHR, ATI, JPM, TSL, AGU, V, SCHN, RIMM, OSG, CEO, APA, PG, MTG, WLT, POT, CERN.... PBR... BLK

That is about all the observations I can remember for now.... Hope this helps someone out there.

I am not afraid to buy stuff for now on pullbacks....

[MR]

Wed, May 6 Update-- I think energy and metals related stocks are going to keep performing well this month. The setups are perfect for this idea... I still like my comments and observations from recent post.

[MR]

WNR and MRO broke out today...

[MR]

Thursday, May 7 2009-- The NY Crude Oil contract made a breakout move. Currently (9:50AM NYT) it is holding at 58.21 area, up another $1.89 this morning. This type of behavior will basically make it easier for our earlier posts to work out as we suggested. It suggests that money flow should continue in the near-term towards those stock areas which will benefit by a return of higher energy prices. Even the worst performing energy commodity, Natural Gas, has finally bottomed... as we suggested it might be doing an earlier post.

Be watching for this rotation to bring money out of those stocks that have performed very well over the last 8 weeks as some of it will be reallocated to this new area of cheaper stocks still with potential for trending near-term.

Or, this is the frame work we are working with as we trade our strategies.

[MR]

Thursday, May 7 2009-- Today will be a profit-taking day and things will get cheaper. If you are looking for a bargain watch those energy stocks that have performed well over the past two weeks and target them on either a one to 5 day pullback. They still have odds to recover more quickly once this pullback is finished. Keep a closer eye on the NY Energy complex to help guide you during this time. There is not always a 1 to 1 relationship in energy stocks moving in same direction each day as the futures market but it does have an indirect or sometimes lagging affect for sure.

[MR]

Wednesday, May 13 2009-- Waiting for this "profit-taking" pullback to evolve where recent run-ups in stocks become better bargains. Sitting tight on sidelines last couple days while this thing does its thing. Focusing on stuff mentioned a week or two ago. Just be more patient in May.

GM is a problem now you need to keep eye on. Odds favoring they are going to go into some form of protected bankruptcy to get their house in order. Looking more and more like it is too complicated to solve their problems any other way. This could be one reason why the backing off in the market the last few days. Feels like a little more hedging starting to go on before Memorial Day weekend and June 1 deadline.

I still want to buy some stuff, just cheaper and for short-term trades only until June 1 time frame. The overall markets still are not at their key stronger resistance areas where you have to start to really get more cautious....

[MR]

Market continues to hold up well after Memorial Day weekend, suggesting still some life left in May rally.

Watching to see how market acts as it gets closer to testing the daily 200MA's in major indexes.

June 1 General Motors (GM) deadline is only real concern short-term.

[MR]

RANDOM OBSERVATIONS

RANDOM OBSERVATIONS, FRIDAY MORNING, MAY 29, 2009--

If you scroll back to my post of May 4th, you will see many of my "observations" have proved to be insightful to a trader looking for areas to focus... Here is an update on some of those observations with new things noticing today... Hope this is helpful to someone out there.

(Caveat: It has been weeks and weeks since the stock market has had any type of good pullback... at some point in June one has to start anticipating some kind of a sudden, unexpected pullback of at least 5 to 8 to 12 trading days. If that happened, these stocks below are some who are giving favorable impressions at this moment, making them good candidates for consideration at... the right time, the right supports. I don't believe "chasing" things at this stage in the game is a healthy thing unless you are extremely good at money management and can keep a close eye on new positions... We are going to get a pullback someday... odds favor being very careful the first week in June, next week.)

(2nd Caveat: I have been saying for weeks If GM goes into bankruptcy, even if only temporary, it has to have a negative affect on the market. This is the only thing I can see near-term that could cause a healthy bigger pullback... JUST A REMINDER-- GM "D-DAY" is MONDAY MORNING! While the market isn't acting like it is concerned, bad things seem to happen over the weekend so Monday or Tuesday could be risky! Be careful with totally new ideas... and make sure you have updated your money management on profitable positions... be safe now, not sorry later.)
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Been saying for a month now i really like energy stocks for this summer.... seems like energy continues to act favorable for summer rebounds.

OIH making little newer breakout high this AM.... also, BUCY, NE, DO, RIG, PBR, GNK, CNQ, BHP, SA, FXE, JCG, SID, FWLT, HES, HOS, SWC, NAK, SLV, KOL, KWK (one of my favorites still, first mentioned it in April)-- all made mini-breakouts newer recent highs this morning... suggests some bullishness to it still. I said in April I liked the SWN breakout.... it made a newer recent high this morning as well.

I liked USO 6 bucks cheaper early May, still like it on pullback supports.

Precious metals continue to work uptrend's this past month...

A gold stock, Randgold (GOLD), keeps going and going and going higher.. what's up with it? Any really good pullback looks like it should be extremely attractive near-term to a gold bull.

Those three Chinese Energy ADR's keep trending higher since I first mentioned their bullishness over a month ago... CEO, PTR, SNY.

BIDU, GOOG, RIMM, AAPL, really are in good solid uptrends, quality enough where it appears any really good pullback to supports or pause mode will still attract some buying during this early summer weeks.

Noticed CLF rebounding after good pullback

Been noticing Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) continues to pick up trend... buying the dip down to 46-45, 44-43 seems worth tracking as an idea.

Wondering for a while now is there a safe way to buy into a pullback in RTP? Looks like it still has some slow but steady uptrending to come?

ABV looks like it will still have buyers waiting to add or jump in next few pullbacks to support areas.

PCZ still has some life to it and is a candidate for a buy if it can pullback to support levels near-term. Noticed also other Canadian ADR stocks acting nicely.

Coal and Water Transportation still lagging during this rally but they have been "basing" very well and still looking attractive near-term. Many of the refinery stocks appear to be in the same pattern. It just seems like a selective bull could be rewarded if just a little more patient.

Yesterday we added Natural Gas ETF (UNG) to the very aggressive bottom-picking contrarian list as a possible candidate.

Noticing a couple diversity ideas like Canadian (EWC) and Brazilian (EWZ) ETF's acting very well and looking like buyers will continue to buy on the summer pullbacks to good supports.

Some of the solar stocks look ok still for a patient trader who uses proper money management techniques to protect those investments from surprises....

What is going on with AZN?

GM finally broke below $1 this morning... Things look like they are in motion for a very interesting next week....

[MR]

11:39AM update-- I decided to cover my recent trades and stand on the sidelines going into early next week. I forgot my vacation is coming up and GM issues are coming to a head... While I am not overly bearish yet, I have been trading for over 20 years and can recognize when I see no problems and things are "too rosy" that is when I get my head handed to me. I just get this feeling the market might be getting ready to surprise us. This has been a very good month for me with only two losing trades so I don't want to tempt fate. I will stand aside for the weekend and rethink new strategies how to proceed under various scenarios.

[MR]

I went on vacation last week hoping to see a pullback while away from the markets for a week. Nothing happened when I was gone. However, yesterday, Monday, June 15th, it looks like we finally had a good healthy one-day pullback.

I have been in cash for two weeks waiting for a pullback and cheaper prices hopefully once vacation was over. This morning in our live class we identified some buy setups for those aggressive traders looking to get Long. Around lunch time weakness started to creep back into the market and now we are wondering what to do. Do we jump back in quickly or do we continue to stay on the sidelines waiting for some better bargains?

It is premature to call this "the pullback" we have been waiting for but we certainly cannot ignore the consistent two-day weakness.

Could we be building for a bigger pullback we hoped to see? Could we still have a chance to pick up some bargains before the month is over? Who really knows... but we will be watching very closely now to see if we can identify any further insights.... stay tuned!

As soon as we see something more concrete will will post here. For now, I am staying conservative and waiting on the sidelines for something cheaper to buy at better supports.

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Originally posted by MR
11:39AM update-- I decided to cover my recent trades and stand on the sidelines going into early next week. I forgot my vacation is coming up and GM issues are coming to a head... While I am not overly bearish yet, I have been trading for over 20 years and can recognize when I see no problems and things are "too rosy" that is when I get my head handed to me. I just get this feeling the market might be getting ready to surprise us. This has been a very good month for me with only two losing trades so I don't want to tempt fate. I will stand aside for the weekend and rethink new strategies how to proceed under various scenarios.