Interesting Chart Patterns To Monitor In Coming Days...

[MR]

Tuesday, 15 June 2010 -- IT could just be short covering before options expiration, or it could be that the severe complex pullback of the past six weeks has run its course. Whatever the reasoning, it does appear that the most recent lows on the various US Indexes will hold for what appears to be the summer rally we were hoping to see accelerate back in May after a 'controlled' profit-taking pullback that turned ugly and caused a great deal of fear to enter the markets again. We went from extremely Bullish back then to cautiously Bullish during this correction. We are now shifting from a cautious mode back to a more "opportunistic" Bullish mode-- which means we are more inclined to buy these current nearby supports and good setups on dips or pullbacks the next few weeks; we will manage new positions with a tighter trailing stop strategy to compensate for what might be high volatility continuation into July. We will not be 'piggish' but be happy with little profits! Because we think the Bulls and Bears may be more willing to do battle in the near-term-- at the extreme support/resistanc ranges-- we will also look for an occasional quality Short this summer until a more clear near-term trend is identifiable.... basically, we are shifting from neutral to a more Net Long strategy over the next 2-3 weeks.

[MR]

Monday, 21 June 2010 -- Is a little bit of a reversal day. Might finally get the pullback we were hoping would show up soon. Will be monitoring to see if we now have 3 to 5 days of weakness and if major supports can hold. Then seeing if any lower risk buy setups show up?

[MR]

THURSDAY, 24 June -- The pullback continues... Actually seeing some hints in some things that this pullback has a little more caution flag to it for the Bulls waiting to buy something... you might want to stay patient, more selective, do more 'due diligence' work before trying to enter something Long this week.

Originally posted by MR
Monday, 21 June 2010 -- Is a little bit of a reversal day. Might finally get the pullback we were hoping would show up soon. Will be monitoring to see if we now have 3 to 5 days of weakness and if major supports can hold. Then seeing if any lower risk buy setups show up?

[MR]

Friday, 25 June 2010 -- Nibbled a little today when S&P retraced to 62% support. Have a couple more hours to see if it will only be day-trade buys for quick profits, or more risky hold over the weekend new positions. Since I was, ideally, hoping for more of a pullback am still waffling on this one. To be honest, the every best buys would have been if we could see a lower price happen next week... but what do I know. Today is a nice little rebound but it could only be short covering for the weekend? Not sure yet how to really interpret today's up bias this afternoon.

[MR]

Tuesday, 29 June 2010 -- Glad we did not stay in more than a day with buying the 62% minor supports.... The US indices are rapidly moving to these the previous lows that we thought they would one more time. We are technically in a quandary because we wanted to buy this support region on the next pullback but now we honestly are wondering if this low is going to hold this time. We are not at the beginning of that critical support test area in the DJ Industrial, S&P500 and Nasdaq. If we do now rally even a little bit this week there could be some things to get worried about if you are Long this market. A strong correction is still very possible under the current pattern I am seeing. I REALLY want a rally off these lows before the end of this week... but am starting to have my doubts. Hoping and praying I am wrong. The market will shortly reveal it true intentions. I think we shall have a lot of our questions answered this week before the July 4th weekend. If we are going to have a rally of any form I think within the next two days it has to start to happen or the bears could gain control of things.

[MR]

Wed, 30 June 2010 -- The next two weeks market action are critical to the Bull market of the past year and a half. The Nasdaq, S&P500, DJ Industrial Indices are at key support levels that need to show they still can support the longer-term uptrend. We can test nearby lower supports so long as we rebound by early next week.

... I kind of thing it can rally later this week, and 'ideally' I would really like to see even a mild rally before this holiday weekend (it would be unpatriotic to selloff now!) ... but we shall see....

Have a happy 4th of July weekend! See you next Tuesday!

[MR]

Wed, 7 July 2010 -- The market did test and took out the previous immediate lows before July 4th weekend, but is has been starting to act a little bit better the past two days after a two week decline. It is encouraging but too early to tell with great certainty if it can work back up into at least a trading range for this month. My guess is the DJ Industrial is still trying to stay close to 10,000 for the near-term? Could see a little relief rally forming here that might push it to 10,100 shortly?

Originally posted by MR
Wed, 30 June 2010 -- The next two weeks market action are critical to the Bull market of the past year and a half. The Nasdaq, S&P500, DJ Industrial Indices are at key support levels that need to show they still can support the longer-term uptrend. We can test nearby lower supports so long as we rebound by early next week.

... I kind of thing it can rally later this week, and 'ideally' I would really like to see even a mild rally before this holiday weekend (it would be unpatriotic to selloff now!) ... but we shall see....

Have a happy 4th of July weekend! See you next Tuesday!

[MR]

Monday Morning, 12 July 2010 --
There really isn't anything newsworthy nor earnings release related this morning that will drive the market. Hence, I suspect today day-traders will have "profit-taking" tendencies after a good finish last week. I suspect the US market will struggle to advance today but odds will improve later this week by Thursday at the latest as some really good stocks are coming out with earnings releases by that date. If earnings results continue to not disappoint by then things should inch higher this week after pullback(s) is my guess.

Here are some notes I took for myself as I started to look for and evaluate whether to take possible pre-announced earnings options strategies this week in anticipation of some kind of good or bad reactions.

EARNINGS SEASON starts to really pick up next week. Below are key ideas…

MONDAY -- (not expecting much postive today.)
(before) - HAL, HAS, MMR, EDU;
(after) - IBM, STLD, TXN, ATHR, BRO, CCK, IEX, LNCR, PKG, SWI, TUP, ZION

Hasbro (HAS) – has a decent pullback, any good news can rebound near-term.

McMoRan Exploration (MMR) – any good news is setup for favorable reaction.

Atheros Comm (ATHR) – if can hold 26, good setup for a surprise and basing now?

Lincare Holdings (LNCR) – Holding daily 200MA. If 26-25 support holds rally to 28,29,, 30 not unreasonable idea the next month or so.

Tupperware (TUP) – Been in a correction since March but good basing. Any good news better odds for a rebound now. Needs to stay above 38.

Zion Bank (ZION) – Daily chart holding on 200MA, oscillator internal divergence, 3 month correction possible Wave 4 setup basing now? This one is kind of interesting for a longer-term Call option play if it continues to develop like it is setting up to be.


Tuesday (13 July) -- You get a few more big name companies coming out today so more movement interest today...

(before) - BK, BIIB, FRX, GS, HOG, JNJ, LXK, MTB, MI, BTU, PEP, PETS, PII, STT, AMTD, UNH, WFT;

(after) - ALTR, AMX, AAPL, ATR, BSX, CYBI, CYT, FIS, GILD, INFN, LM, LLTC, MANH, PTP, SYK, VMW, YHOO

Goldman Sachs (GS) – has a basing pattern and 5/35 oscillator divergences that look like any positive surprises could get a very oversold condition to find relief. A gap above 140 is a positive that will make 150 become the next higher target.

Biogen (BIIB) -- Is setting up to stop the 3 month decline. Odds favor it will start to do better so long as it can hold 45 on the next big pullback. It is building a possible stair-step pattern now. Slightly overbought the past week but attractive on dip.

Harley Davidson (HOG) -- Take a look at HOG for a possible small idea. Nothing major... if it can hold 20 area now has potential to rebound.

LexMark (LXK) -- Complex correction, holding near 200 MA. Still basically in an uptrend since 2009.

M&T Bank (MTB) -- This bank stock looks like a decent bullish trend. As long as it stays above 84 looks good.

Altera (ALTR) -- Still acting like a decent uptrend in progress.

Apple (AAPL) -- What can you say, the company is hot.. current trend seems strong but been choppy lately. It could go either way on earnings but I still like the overall uptrend going on, in general. Maybe a spread strategy could work here?

Boston Scientific (BSX) -- Not expecting much on earnings but, hey, is worth taking a longer-term look at this one for possible Leap option type idea??? Double bottom test happened and holding now.

Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) -- Just looks interesting. Not a priority trade setup but good trend in progress.

Linear Tech (LLTC) -- Acting positive lately after consolidation. Good supports at 26 & 25... crap if lower, 32 target?

Stryker (SYK) -- A very decent setup worth a look before earnings. Needs to hold 50 - 48 for best odds now.

VMWare (VMW) -- This is a continual performer. Worth at least a look and monitor after earnings for sure for later idea.

---------------------------------------------------------
(Note to Self: Finish work on rest of the week today... below are some of my favorites I want to check out during today.)

WEDNESDAY
(before) - ABT, AAI, MO, AMR, ATMI, CHKP, KO, CMA, ETN, ELN, EMC, ECA, FO, FCX, GENZ, MAN, MS, NVR, PJC, DGX, STJ, SY, TXT, UTX, USB, WFC, WHR
(after) - AFFX, AMLN, BXP, BCR, CMG, CTAS, CNS, EBAY, FFIV, ISIL, ISRG, NFLX, NE, RT, STX, SLM, SBUX, TSCO, WLT, WERN, XLNX

THURSDAY (Big Earnings Day! Odds favor this could a respectable day with many good companies coming out today?)
(before) - MMM, APD, ALK, ACI, T, BAX, BBT, BX, BMY, BG, CCMP, CAT, CAL, CBE, CY, DHR, DAL, DLX, DO, DOV, LLY, EXC, FLIR, GNTX, HSY, HBAN, IDC, ESI, JNS, JBLU, KEY, LH, NYT, NOK, NOC, NUE, OXY, PM, PNC, RTN, RS, HOT, STI, TDY, TMO, TNB, TRAD, TRV, UTEK, UNP, UPS, LCC, VFC, WSO, ZMH, ZOLL
(after) - ADS, AMZN, AXP, ATHN, AVID, BIDU, BUCY, CNI, COF, CAK, CB, CRUS, CTXS, CLB, CYMI, DECK, FLEX, HGSI, BLUD, IBKR, KLAC, LEG, WFR, MTD, MSCC, MSFT, MOS, NTGR, OLN, OSIP, PMCS, QLGC, RMBS, RJF, SNDK, SANM, SKX, STM, SPWRA, TEX, TQNT, WGAV

FRIDAY
(before) - ASH, DLR, HON, IR, JCI, KMB, MCD, R, SLB, TROW, VZ

[MR]

The list of stocks coming out for with earnings is for next week not this week. I did the work in advance and published the wrong list. This week is relatively light compared to next week when it picks up.

[MR]

Tuesday, 13 July 2010 -- Here is this weeks Earnings notes I took after reviewing things....

Monday, July 12
Earnings Reaction Positive – AA, NVLS
Earnings Reaction Negative – CSX

Tuesday, July 13
Earnings Reaction Positive this morning--
Earnings Reaction Negative this morning – FAST, HITK, INFY
Waiting for Release After Close:
HTLD, AIR, ADTN, HCSG, INXI
INTC (Intel) – chart uptrend looks ok still
YUM (Yum Brands) – overall uptrend still looks ok

Wednesday, July 14
(Before) –
AMR, ASML, IGTE, JTX, MTOX, TXI
PGR (Progressive) – safe uptrend if can stay above 18 now.
(After) –
LSTR
MAR (Marriott) – holding well at 32. Pullback buy setup so long as stays above 28.

Thursday, July 15
(Before) –
VIVO, MTG, NXY, NVS, TCB, WWW, CBSH, FCS,
SCHW (Charles Schwab) -- capable of minor up move if good results, oversold.
JPM (JP Morgan Chase) – support at 36 holding.
PPG (PPG Ind) – basing well at 60-59.
GWW – acting ok now after consolidation phase, now basing at 96
(After) –
AMD, APP, ANGO, CTAS, CBST, CVBF, JBHT, PBCT, PLCM
GOOG (Google) – mostly watching reaction. Spread strategy only thing safe now
JOEZ – interesting $2 stock with attractive longer-term daily basing at 200MA pattern

Friday, July 16
(Before) –
C (Citigroup), FHN, GCI (Gannet), GE (General Electric), KNL, MAT, WBS,
COL (Rockwell Collins)
BAC (Bank of America) – somewhat ok if 13.50 base keeps holding now.
GPC (Genuine Parts) – interesting consolidation phase holding above 200MA.

[MR]

2010 Summer Earnings Season
SUMMARY UPDATE
Friday 16 July 2010; 5:00PM NYT

Brief End-of-Week Summary – Only a few stocks look decent this week after earnings. (ADTN & GPC, maybe GWW) The rest are so-so near-term. Next week (July 19-23) starts to pick up earnings results as week progresses.

Monday, July 12
Earning Positive Reaction – AA, NVLS
Earning Negative Reaction – SHAW
Earning Neutral Reaction – CSX
Follow-Up: Nothing stands out

Tuesday, July 13
Earning Positive Reaction – ADTN, HCSG, INTC
Earning Negative Reaction – FAST, HITK, INFY, YUM
Earning Neutral Reaction – HTLD, AIR
Follow-Up:
HITK might be slowly building for a down trend. (minor idea)
AIR momentum down, selling rallies to as high as $19 resistance. (minor idea)
ADTN still attractive on good pullback. (minor idea)
INTC is sort of ok if it can hold 19 now on next big pullback. (minor idea)

Wednesday, July 14
Earning Positive Reaction – ASML, IGTE
Earning Negative Reaction – PGR, LSTR, MAR
Earning Neutral Reaction – AMR, TXI
Follow-Up:
IGTE still attractive on good pullback to 14-13. (minor idea)
PGR sort of ok if it can hold 18 near-term on pullback. (minor idea)
TXI slow downtrend looking like it can continue. (medium idea)
MAR looking like it is stair-stepping lower to eventual downtrend? (medium idea)

Thursday, July 15
Earning Positive Reaction – SCHW, FCS,
Earning Negative Reaction – VIVO, MTG, NXY, NVS, PPG, TCB, WWW, GOOG, PBCT, PLCM
Earning Neutral Reaction – CBHS, JPM, MTOX, GWW, AMD, ANGO, CTAS, CBST, CVBF, JBHT, JOEZ,
Follow-Up:
NVS still attractive on good pullback to 47-46? (minor idea)
GWW looks interesting if it drops to 100-97, has to stay above 95. (medium idea)
GOOG can rebound if it can hold 440-420 area within a month (minor idea)

Friday, July 16
Earning Positive Reaction – GPC,
Earning Negative Reaction – BAC, C, FHN, GCI, GE, MAT, COL, WBS
Earning Neutral Reaction – KNL
Follow-Up:
GCI could be ok for a buy if it can hold 12 now? (minor idea)
GPC acting well still. Needs to hold 39-38 now. (medium idea)
KNL somewhat ok if it can hold 12-11.75 now (minor idea)
MAT could be heading for a down trend? (medium idea)
COL could be ok if it can hold 50 this month? (minor)
WBS still holding above 200MA around 16-15 area. (minor)


Monday, July 19
(before) - HAL, HAS, MMR, EDU;
(after) - IBM, STLD, TXN, ATHR, BRO, CCK, IEX, LNCR, PKG, SWI, TUP, ZION

Tuesday, July 20
(before) - BK, BIIB, FRX, GS, HOG, JNJ, LXK, MTB, MI, BTU, PEP, PETS, PII, STT, AMTD, UNH, WFT;
(after) - ALTR, AMX, AAPL, ATR, BSX, CYBI, CYT, FIS, GILD, INFN, LM, LLTC, MANH, PTP, SYK, VMW, YHOO

Wednesday, July 21
(before) - ABT, AAI, MO, AMR, ATMI, CHKP, KO, CMA, ETN, ELN, EMC, ECA, FO, FCX, GENZ, MAN, MS, NVR, PJC, DGX, STJ, SY, TXT, UTX, USB, WFC, WHR
(after) - AFFX, AMLN, BXP, BCR, CMG, CTAS, CNS, EBAY, FFIV, ISIL, ISRG, NFLX, NE, RT, STX, SLM, SBUX, TSCO, WLT, WERN, XLNX

Thursday, July 22 (Big Earnings Day!)
(before) - MMM, APD, ALK, ACI, T, BAX, BBT, BX, BMY, BG, CCMP, CAT, CAL, CBE, CY, DHR, DAL, DLX, DO, DOV, LLY, EXC, FLIR, GNTX, HSY, HBAN, IDC, ESI, JNS, JBLU, KEY, LH, NYT, NOK, NOC, NUE, OXY, PM, PNC, RTN, RS, HOT, STI, TDY, TMO, TNB, TRAD, TRV, UTEK, UNP, UPS, LCC, VFC, WSO, ZMH, ZOLL
(after) - ADS, AMZN, AXP, ATHN, AVID, BIDU, BUCY, CNI, COF, CAK, CB, CRUS, CTXS, CLB, CYMI, DECK, FLEX, HGSI, BLUD, IBKR, KLAC, LEG, WFR, MTD, MSCC, MSFT, MOS, NTGR, OLN, OSIP, PMCS, QLGC, RMBS, RJF, SNDK, SANM, SKX, STM, SPWRA, TEX, TQNT, WGAV

Friday, July 23
(before) - ASH, DLR, HON, IR, JCI, KMB, MCD, R, SLB, TROW, VZ

[MR]

Tuesday, 20 July 2010 -- The market has not really reacted to anything too positively this earning season. Now IBM and GS are down on pre-market earnings release news. We are anticipating this pullback to work down previous June/July lows. Then the test builds if later this week we are going to improve odds for even a mild rally. Bulls are waiting patiently if interested in establishing near-term new positions. Bears are starting to make a little money on their recent net Shorts or Puts.

[MR]

Monday, 2 August 2010 -- Few things noticing this morning:

(1) The market is starting off August with a nice gap higher up tick move. Bears will attempt to re-take control later at higher prices rather than rush out now and waste money trying. Bulls will be more willing to buy pullbacks. Bulls still maintaining control into early August.

(2) Energy prices will stay high into August. Sovereign funds will try to push things higher to test April/May previous highs.... NY Crude Oil, for example, made a mini-breakout move this morning on daily perpetual file. Suggests lower trading range can be raised to 75 area where bulls will be more active buying the dips. Moves higher to upper 88-92- range still possible in August.

(3) US Dollar down again but moving closer to that support range predicted it would drop to around 80-79/78. Would like to see that area hold for a while.

[MR]

Tuesday, 10 August 2010 -- Looks like this morning the market is finally pulling back in a meaningful way for this month. The DJ Industrial looks like it has some good support around the 10,458 area. Next lower level (worst case scenario) would watch 10.272 range.

Economic Reports For This week:

Tuesday:
0830: Q2 Productivity, Q2 Unit Labor Costs
1000: June Wholesale Inventories
1415: FOMC Rate Decision

(SUMMARY -- look ahead to Tuesday’s FOMC meeting and why it’s “D-Day” for U.S. and global markets.. The big questions of course are will they do it, when will they do it and will it work? Federal Reserve is set to downgrade its assessment of US economic prospects when it meets on Tuesday to discuss ways to reboot the flagging recovery, the FT reports. )

Wednesday:
0830: June Trade Balance
1400: July Treasury Budget

Thursday:
0830: Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims

Friday:
0830: July Consumer Price Index, July Retail Sales,
0955: August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
1000: June Business Inventories

[MR]

Day Three of Corrective Phase in US Stock Market

Thursday, 12 Aug 2010, 9:35AM NYT --

When I posted Monday, "...looks like it has some good support around the 10,458 area. Next lower level (worst case scenario) would watch 10.272 range...." I did not think by this Thursday morning we would be zeroing in on my 'worst-case scenario' already... but we are.

Thursdays are traditionally 'gap covering' days so watch to see how high this market might drift up this morning in an attempt to cover some of this early morning weakness, gap lower open.

Today is the third day since we identified the market as entering a corrective phase. We are anticipating more weakness will occur today until the market can identify where is the best support. If day-trading today, we will be looking for Short setups. If Bullish near to long-term, we would be holding off buying anything until this retracement has had more time to work itself out.

I might have to rethink this worst-case scenario more and am contemplating expanding this corrective phase range.

The US Dollar has finally stopped its steep decline that started in early June. I suggested last week in elsewhere bottom pickers should start to pay attention. There still may be a chance for Bulls to play this bounce in the next good pullback, so still pay close attention if you missed it. You may get a second chance later this month.

Cisco (CSCO) really got beat up this morning because of last poor timing with nights earnings announcement coming during a corrective phase. However, for very aggressive short-term Gap traders it is currently holding at the key previous 20.95 pivot point support area. Something to be aware of.

Kohls (KSS) actually is starting to look like a Sell setup could be developing on the next little minor rally. It came out with earnings this morning and is moving to test shortly the 45.30 support area. It has a key resistance now around 49-50 that could be used as a 'directional and stop loss area near-term if someone were interested in shorting it on the next gap covering minor rally into this resistance window it could be an idea for you to review for yourself. (caveat: This is only a minor idea quickly developed this morning. I still like the company so hate to even mention it but short-term traders it could be a legit idea later this month.)

Well, this is all the comments I have time for this morning.