Interesting Chart Patterns To Monitor In Coming Days...

[DuaneG]

Hi Marc,

Thanks for the chart of the Type II sell. I've seen quite a few of these during my weekly research. I thought I would share one example of the layered MOB that you mentioned earlier. What do you think?

[MR]

Overal, yes, I think it could work Duane... at least short-term. There is a slight difference worth mentioning. Your chart is showing an ascending triangle. (I think that is what they would call this pattern?) If it makes a breakout move, it may not come back for a while?

[MR]

(See chart below with comments written on it.)

Survey... what price did your local PUCO lock in natural gas rates at?

A year or two before the ENRON scandal, I told co-workers I thought
NG was rigged. (I really did tell them there was something crooked going
on in NG.) It traded way to predictable. It stopped on a dime at targets.
It was too easy to trade it. That year I also noticed the very day our
local PUCO locked in our natural gas rates at all-time highs, that very
day the market topped out. It never looked back and began a nice
downtrend. Next year, same thing!

Anyway... the natural gas market scandals came and went and I
thought with all the negative press and market changes, things would
get better. Not really sure about it! This year I recently read in the
local papers what prices our rates are going to be locked in at. You
will never guess what... our new NG rates were near the highs!

So much for deregulation!

Now, to be fair, I honestly don't know if there is any monkey business
going on in this industry. All this speculation could be totally coincidental,
totally seasonal in nature. But I do know this. If you always wanted to
trade the futures market, consider starting your learning curve by tracking
natural gas futures contracts every day for a period of time. Eventually
you should be able to figure out ways to earn back some of your monthly
home gas bill!

NG trends nicely. It has good seasonal behavior. It conforms
well to basic technical analysis. Fibonacci works well with it. It really
can be a very nice market to trade.

[MR]

Hey, I will give you more tips... if you take my survey!!!!

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

I am conducting an unscientific survey.

The general question: as of this week, Sept 13-17, do you think the
Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 will continue to confound traders
with its trading action, yet still continue to maintain its recent overall
upward bias for the next month?

Even if you don't have a strong opinion, please cast your vote
at the following thread. Even a neutral vote counts.

Click here to link to vote thread

[MR]

Larry,

I wanted to follow-up on SMH for you. It currently is no longer a "perfect" Type 1 Buy setup because some of the qualifiying conditions have changed.

However, I am going on the assumption you want to see how this wave sequence ultimately will complete itself, and I still like the overall setup, so I am going to create a hypothetical situation where I am pretending to buy a 1,000 shares earlier at 30.25. My stop is at 29.98, and the target is 32.20 area.

Let's continue to track this to see how it works out. At this point it is only a 50-50 idea but a very good risk/reward setup.

Originally posted by larrydudash
MR
Can you post that SMH 30 minute chart again?
Why?
To see if it shows a WAVE 4 now.
This is the last time I will ask for this chart.

Thanks in advance

[MR]

Hi bgold,

Following up a little on LB X4. Ivan avoided major urban area so it seems like its damage was limited in scope. Lumber continued to do as you thought it should.

One way I look at that false bar... it is very possible LB X4 could experience a nice pop back up. It is getting oversold, approaching a support window. A very aggressive trader might start to either tighten stops if Short, or monitor more closely for a possible aggressive short-term quick trade type buy setup soon. Also, look at the weekly LB #F and do a retracement calculation from top to bottom, just as insurance to see where lumber would go next if this approaching support doesn't hold. Is always helpful to have a contingency plan just in case.

Originally posted by MR
Hi bgold,


What does the AGET ‘false bar’ stochastic warning mean to your
original sell setup signal? In this particular case, consider this…

1. Consider cross-referencing LB X4 to the LB #F data?
(This continuous contract helps illuminate a front-month behavior,
which is very important when lumber typically only has 3 to 6 months
of actively traded data to compare and contrast with.)

2. Take a look at the LB X4 alternate long wave count.

In this case, LB #F regular wave count, and the LB X4 alternate
long wave count both show a Wave 4 pullback in progress.
We could see lumber shoot up one more time if these ideas turn
out to be correct. At least until this hurricane worry passes,
do NOT rule this out!

Let me know if this helps you at all. Best wishes, and hope things
are going well in London….

Marc Rinehart
(Trading Techniques/Advanced GET/eSignal former employee, and former CTA)

[larrydudash]

MR
I very much want to follow up on SMH and where wave 4 finally ends up. I now under stand your comment about using wave 4
as a guide. The position of wave 4 does change as more data is
introduced. And I find that very reasonable.IMHO.

As far as "going long", well clicking my URL'S below you will see
that I issued a SELL on SMH based on the Indicators I follow.

So going long would be against the current daily trend.IMHO.

I hope you continue to post SMH 30 minute chart.
Maybe even a SMH daily chart ? So I could see what GET is saying
in relationship to my SELL signal.

By the way, about 400 people follow my FREE WORK, so I am
asking you permission to show them your GET charts on SMH ?
Is that OK ?

Originally posted by MR
Larry,

I wanted to follow-up on SMH for you. It currently is no longer a "perfect" Type 1 Buy setup because some of the qualifiying conditions have changed.

However, I am going on the assumption you want to see how this wave sequence ultimately will complete itself, and I still like the overall setup, so I am going to create a hypothetical situation where I am pretending to buy a 1,000 shares earlier at 30.25. My stop is at 29.98, and the target is 32.20 area.

Let's continue to track this to see how it works out. At this point it is only a 50-50 idea but a very good risk/reward setup.

[MR]

Sure... if it helps. I am not paid and totally do this for 100% free, too, out of the benevolence of my heart...
so if we both can help others out there, the more the merrier. BTW, I cannot see your url anywhere. -mr

Originally posted by larrydudash By the way, about 400 people follow my FREE WORK, so I am
asking you permission to show them your GET charts on SMH ?
Is that OK ?

[larrydudash]

MR
The URL's are part of my name
Look where you see Marc

Originally posted by MR
Sure... if it helps. I am not paid and totally do this for 100% free, too, out of the benevolence of my heart...
so if we both can help others out there, the more the merrier. BTW, I cannot see your url anywhere. -mr

[DuaneG]

Hi Marc,

Per my post yesterday of UEIC, it looks like the volume came through...it will be interesting to see how the layered MOB(s) behave from here.

[MR]

Larry,

Opps... sorry i missed it.... Did i tell you i wear glasses... my new glasses are coming any day! Should be able to see better soon.

Best wishes,

Marc

[MR]

Hey Larry,

Can you tell those 400 people who follow your work to come in to this AGET forum and participate in my surveys? I feel like that commercial where the lonely Maytag guy is waiting for some interaction. Was hoping people would participate in those surveys so I could see what people are thinking out there. It can actually help ones analysis sometimes.

Take care, and have a great weekend,

Marc

[MR]

Duane,

Be careful on this one... i think it is going to push above it somehow. Hopefully that MOB laying idea can at least contain it for a while..... i kind of think this one looks a little bullish though.

Marc

[DuaneG]

Thanks Marc...

I concur. I learned a long time ago to never get in the way of volume. I read an article in Active Trader Magazine a couple of months back about Daniel Zanger. I think he said it best.... something to the effect of, "...if you aren't running with the elephants, you're getting trampled by 'em." Food for thought.

[MR]

Duane,

That is a VERY good quote! Printing it out and save it.

FWIW, you have done a very good job this week. Your analysis and comments have been right on. Please tell Jay, Bryan, Scott, Andy, etc, everyone in the Hayword 'community' I said hello, and to have a really good weekend,

Marc